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> Elon Musk feels ‘super bad’ about economy Considering how bad Elon is at making predictions, this is actually great news.

jes 4y ago
Can you say more? Musk is the world’s wealthiest individual. I’m having trouble seeing see how being bad at making predictions results in that outcome.
- manuelabeledo 4y ago
  > Musk is the world’s wealthiest individual. On paper. He bet big on EVs, which the market rewarded. Same happened with Microsoft and computers maybe thirty years ago, main difference being that Tesla is not holding a semi monopoly, and competitors are catching up quickly.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 4y ago
    >and competitors are catching up quickly. How do you measure that? All sales figures show the contrary. Also, two days ago https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-01/vw-ceo-says-tesla-moves-at-double-speed-in-changing-industry https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-01/vw-ceo-sa... >Volkswagen AG said Tesla Inc. is moving twice as quickly as the rest of the industry that needs to pick up the pace in the shift to making electric vehicles packed with software.
    - raphaelj 4y ago
      Tesla sales growth, but slower than the EV market. Tesla is thus loosing market share (in EV) while increasing revenue.
- raphaelj 4y ago
  Just top of my mind: "Covid will be gone by April 2020": https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960 "FSD will be achieved by 2018": https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 "Neuralink in human brains by 2020": https://news.yahoo.com/everything-know-neuralink-elon-musks-103000152.html https://news.yahoo.com/everything-know-neuralink-elon-musks-... Being wealthy has also a lot to do with being at the right place, at the right time, inherited wealth, and outsourcing efficiently.
  - jes 4y ago
    Thank you for those examples. I agree that they are examples of predictions made by Musk that did not pan out. That being said, do you think the majority of the predictions he makes in going about his every day business are wrong? To get to the point Musk has reached, it seems to me that that would, over a lifetime, require a person making billions (?) of small predictions that no one ever hears about. I think it must be the case that he’s very good at making those kinds of predictions. I agree with you that being wealthy does confer a great advantage to people. I don’t think it explains everything about Elon Musk and the success he has achieved to date. To be clear, I don’t believe in free will. It seems like an error to me to look at a successful person and claim that they achieved their success single-handedly.
    - softmango3 4y ago
      | do you think the majority of the predictions he makes in going about his every day business are wrong? OP is discussing his prediction about the economy though.
- turzmo 4y ago
  Not agreeing or disagree that Elon is bad at predictions (do predictions even matter from somebody as unstable and fickle as Elon?) but there are plenty of people who have made one or two good bets and then got nothing else right.
  - danans 4y ago
    > do predictions even matter from somebody as unstable and fickle as Elon? When they command the attention and loyalty of millions of people who believe everything they say, yes they matter a great deal.
    - turzmo 4y ago
      Agreed, I misspoke. What I meant to say is, I don't take believe Elon says is an honest "prediction" because I wouldn't be surprised if he reversed course completely within the same day, or was, "just trolling"
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

jes 4y ago

Can you say more? Musk is the world’s wealthiest individual. I’m having trouble seeing see how being bad at making predictions results in that outcome.

manuelabeledo 4y ago
> Musk is the world’s wealthiest individual. On paper. He bet big on EVs, which the market rewarded. Same happened with Microsoft and computers maybe thirty years ago, main difference being that Tesla is not holding a semi monopoly, and competitors are catching up quickly.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 4y ago
  >and competitors are catching up quickly. How do you measure that? All sales figures show the contrary. Also, two days ago https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-01/vw-ceo-says-tesla-moves-at-double-speed-in-changing-industry https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-01/vw-ceo-sa... >Volkswagen AG said Tesla Inc. is moving twice as quickly as the rest of the industry that needs to pick up the pace in the shift to making electric vehicles packed with software.
  - raphaelj 4y ago
    Tesla sales growth, but slower than the EV market. Tesla is thus loosing market share (in EV) while increasing revenue.
raphaelj 4y ago
Just top of my mind: "Covid will be gone by April 2020": https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960 "FSD will be achieved by 2018": https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 "Neuralink in human brains by 2020": https://news.yahoo.com/everything-know-neuralink-elon-musks-103000152.html https://news.yahoo.com/everything-know-neuralink-elon-musks-... Being wealthy has also a lot to do with being at the right place, at the right time, inherited wealth, and outsourcing efficiently.
- jes 4y ago
  Thank you for those examples. I agree that they are examples of predictions made by Musk that did not pan out. That being said, do you think the majority of the predictions he makes in going about his every day business are wrong? To get to the point Musk has reached, it seems to me that that would, over a lifetime, require a person making billions (?) of small predictions that no one ever hears about. I think it must be the case that he’s very good at making those kinds of predictions. I agree with you that being wealthy does confer a great advantage to people. I don’t think it explains everything about Elon Musk and the success he has achieved to date. To be clear, I don’t believe in free will. It seems like an error to me to look at a successful person and claim that they achieved their success single-handedly.
  - softmango3 4y ago
    | do you think the majority of the predictions he makes in going about his every day business are wrong? OP is discussing his prediction about the economy though.
turzmo 4y ago
Not agreeing or disagree that Elon is bad at predictions (do predictions even matter from somebody as unstable and fickle as Elon?) but there are plenty of people who have made one or two good bets and then got nothing else right.
- danans 4y ago
  > do predictions even matter from somebody as unstable and fickle as Elon? When they command the attention and loyalty of millions of people who believe everything they say, yes they matter a great deal.
  - turzmo 4y ago
    Agreed, I misspoke. What I meant to say is, I don't take believe Elon says is an honest "prediction" because I wouldn't be surprised if he reversed course completely within the same day, or was, "just trolling"
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]