5 ms·

There's an interesting example of exactly this in missile development. Russia over-estimated the capabilities of a generation of the Sidewinder missile and bui

There's an interesting example of exactly this in missile development. Russia over-estimated the capabilities of a generation of the Sidewinder missile and built their equivalent to match what they thought it must contain, and as a result had a more advanced design for a while. Similar story with the Buran: they over-estimated the Space Shuttle's military capabilities on the assumption that the true intended mission profiles were being hushed up and ended up with a fully automated exoatmospheric nuclear bomber. So it's a dodgy strategy if it's intentional: you've got to bet that your opponent will run out of cash before they can field the superweapons you've made them build; or that once built they won't be able to afford enough of them to make a difference.

skhr0680 4y ago
The F-15 was way ahead of any other fighter jet for years because someone managed to convince whoever was paying that the MiG-25 was a super plane (it really wasn’t)
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
  And the MiG-25 itself was designed because the USSR was spooked by the XB-70 Valkyrie which was a supersonic strategic bomber that flew higher and faster than any existing Soviet interceptor. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyri... The Valkyrie never was productionized and only 2 aircraft were ever built.
  - techdragon 4y ago
    And sadly only one survives to this day due to an absolutely incredible mid air disaster during what was an otherwise “routine” photo op flight.
    - dtparr 4y ago
      In case anyone is wondering, since it was a photo op flight, there's a photo of it shortly after the midair collision, missing a vert stabilizer. The fireball is the F-104 that contacted it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie#/media/File%3ANorth_American_XB-70A_Valkyrie_just_after_collision_061122-F-1234P-037.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyri...
      - eternalban 4y ago
        Apropos of nothing but F-4 Phantoms still look badass and gorgeous.
  - hangonhn 4y ago
    Y'all seeing a pattern here? I don't think it's intentional but our fears drive us to escalate and pour money into things to counter things that don't really exist in the ways that we fear.
    - wing-_-nuts 4y ago
      And, I just want to stress here, the BILLIONS we pour into these weapons systems are billions that we don't spend on building highways, schools, etc. You know, the actually useful stuff that benefits the average citizen. The US is flanked by two friendly neighbors and separated from our nearest peer adversaries by thousands of miles of ocean. Neither China or Russia has any ability to project significant assets with a blue water navy. Yet we're still spending 700B+ / yr on defense? We could defend US soil with a tiny fraction of that. Our entire military-industrial complex is a pure grift the likes of which the world has never seen.
      - PeterisP 4y ago
        The US Department of Defense is there not to defend US soil, as you state, but rather to defend US interests. And US has plenty of interests (which have a meaningful effect on bulk of US citizens) that require action on the other side of the oceans - USA is getting quite a better deal in terms of international trade and the global flow of wealth than it would if it would be isolationist and just defend its soil.
    - slyall 4y ago
      I remember this old quote: " Welcome to the world of strategic analysis, where we build weapons that don't work to counter threats that don't exist. "
yborg 4y ago
> Russia over-estimated the capabilities of a generation of the Sidewinder missile and built their equivalent to match what they thought it must contain No. The K-13/AA-2 Atoll is a literal copy of an AIM-9 reverse-engineered from an example captured by the Chinese. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-13_(missile) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-13_(missile)
- wbl 4y ago
  He is talking about the Vymple R-73 which was meant to counter the capabilities of a project that got cancelled, but they thought has become classified.
  - regularfry 4y ago
    Yep. I can neither remember nor find my copy of Ron Westrum's China Lake book to check which feature it was, but it was one of helmet-mounted targeting or thrust vectoring. I think it was the latter but wouldn't put money on it.

skhr0680 4y ago

The F-15 was way ahead of any other fighter jet for years because someone managed to convince whoever was paying that the MiG-25 was a super plane (it really wasn’t)

RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
And the MiG-25 itself was designed because the USSR was spooked by the XB-70 Valkyrie which was a supersonic strategic bomber that flew higher and faster than any existing Soviet interceptor. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyri... The Valkyrie never was productionized and only 2 aircraft were ever built.
- techdragon 4y ago
  And sadly only one survives to this day due to an absolutely incredible mid air disaster during what was an otherwise “routine” photo op flight.
  - dtparr 4y ago
    In case anyone is wondering, since it was a photo op flight, there's a photo of it shortly after the midair collision, missing a vert stabilizer. The fireball is the F-104 that contacted it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie#/media/File%3ANorth_American_XB-70A_Valkyrie_just_after_collision_061122-F-1234P-037.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyri...
    - eternalban 4y ago
      Apropos of nothing but F-4 Phantoms still look badass and gorgeous.
- hangonhn 4y ago
  Y'all seeing a pattern here? I don't think it's intentional but our fears drive us to escalate and pour money into things to counter things that don't really exist in the ways that we fear.
  - wing-_-nuts 4y ago
    And, I just want to stress here, the BILLIONS we pour into these weapons systems are billions that we don't spend on building highways, schools, etc. You know, the actually useful stuff that benefits the average citizen. The US is flanked by two friendly neighbors and separated from our nearest peer adversaries by thousands of miles of ocean. Neither China or Russia has any ability to project significant assets with a blue water navy. Yet we're still spending 700B+ / yr on defense? We could defend US soil with a tiny fraction of that. Our entire military-industrial complex is a pure grift the likes of which the world has never seen.
    - PeterisP 4y ago
      The US Department of Defense is there not to defend US soil, as you state, but rather to defend US interests. And US has plenty of interests (which have a meaningful effect on bulk of US citizens) that require action on the other side of the oceans - USA is getting quite a better deal in terms of international trade and the global flow of wealth than it would if it would be isolationist and just defend its soil.
  - slyall 4y ago
    I remember this old quote: " Welcome to the world of strategic analysis, where we build weapons that don't work to counter threats that don't exist. "

yborg 4y ago

> Russia over-estimated the capabilities of a generation of the Sidewinder missile and built their equivalent to match what they thought it must contain No. The K-13/AA-2 Atoll is a literal copy of an AIM-9 reverse-engineered from an example captured by the Chinese. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-13_(missile) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-13_(missile)

wbl 4y ago
He is talking about the Vymple R-73 which was meant to counter the capabilities of a project that got cancelled, but they thought has become classified.
- regularfry 4y ago
  Yep. I can neither remember nor find my copy of Ron Westrum's China Lake book to check which feature it was, but it was one of helmet-mounted targeting or thrust vectoring. I think it was the latter but wouldn't put money on it.