5 ms·

If I were the PLA and wanted to scare western military analysts about Chinese hardware, I'd leak some tuned up specs in the War Thunder forums....

elevaet 4y ago
Is it a better strategy to have your combat opponent underestimate, or overestimate your specs?
- waffleiron 4y ago
  From the Art of War: All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
- danielheath 4y ago
  Depends whether your goal is to get what you want without fighting, or to win a fight.
  - Ancapistani 4y ago
    Getting what you want without fighting is winning the fight.
- regularfry 4y ago
  There's an interesting example of exactly this in missile development. Russia over-estimated the capabilities of a generation of the Sidewinder missile and built their equivalent to match what they thought it must contain, and as a result had a more advanced design for a while. Similar story with the Buran: they over-estimated the Space Shuttle's military capabilities on the assumption that the true intended mission profiles were being hushed up and ended up with a fully automated exoatmospheric nuclear bomber. So it's a dodgy strategy if it's intentional: you've got to bet that your opponent will run out of cash before they can field the superweapons you've made them build; or that once built they won't be able to afford enough of them to make a difference.
  - skhr0680 4y ago
    The F-15 was way ahead of any other fighter jet for years because someone managed to convince whoever was paying that the MiG-25 was a super plane (it really wasn’t)
    - RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
      And the MiG-25 itself was designed because the USSR was spooked by the XB-70 Valkyrie which was a supersonic strategic bomber that flew higher and faster than any existing Soviet interceptor. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyri... The Valkyrie never was productionized and only 2 aircraft were ever built.
      - techdragon 4y ago
        And sadly only one survives to this day due to an absolutely incredible mid air disaster during what was an otherwise “routine” photo op flight.
        dtparr 4y ago
        In case anyone is wondering, since it was a photo op flight, there's a photo of it shortly after the midair collision, missing a vert stabilizer. The fireball is the F-104 that contacted it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie#/media/File%3ANorth_American_XB-70A_Valkyrie_just_after_collision_061122-F-1234P-037.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyri...
        eternalban 4y ago
        Apropos of nothing but F-4 Phantoms still look badass and gorgeous.
      - hangonhn 4y ago
        Y'all seeing a pattern here? I don't think it's intentional but our fears drive us to escalate and pour money into things to counter things that don't really exist in the ways that we fear.
- PedroBatista 4y ago
  Both. You want to make your opponent to vastly overestimate your power where you are in fact weak so they don't even try it and underestimate your clear advantages so if they get any funny ideas they'll get their ass kicked.
- refurb 4y ago
  I think the goal is the specs are different enough to assume different capabilities. Whether a gun fires faster or slower isn’t good or bad, it just drives how it’s used.
- bayesian_horse 4y ago
  I'd guess it's always a weakness if you mispredict the other side's performance, whatever the circumstance.
bergenty 4y ago
None of this is scary though…

elevaet 4y ago

Is it a better strategy to have your combat opponent underestimate, or overestimate your specs?

waffleiron 4y ago
From the Art of War: All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
danielheath 4y ago
Depends whether your goal is to get what you want without fighting, or to win a fight.
- Ancapistani 4y ago
  Getting what you want without fighting is winning the fight.
regularfry 4y ago
There's an interesting example of exactly this in missile development. Russia over-estimated the capabilities of a generation of the Sidewinder missile and built their equivalent to match what they thought it must contain, and as a result had a more advanced design for a while. Similar story with the Buran: they over-estimated the Space Shuttle's military capabilities on the assumption that the true intended mission profiles were being hushed up and ended up with a fully automated exoatmospheric nuclear bomber. So it's a dodgy strategy if it's intentional: you've got to bet that your opponent will run out of cash before they can field the superweapons you've made them build; or that once built they won't be able to afford enough of them to make a difference.
- skhr0680 4y ago
  The F-15 was way ahead of any other fighter jet for years because someone managed to convince whoever was paying that the MiG-25 was a super plane (it really wasn’t)
  - RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
    And the MiG-25 itself was designed because the USSR was spooked by the XB-70 Valkyrie which was a supersonic strategic bomber that flew higher and faster than any existing Soviet interceptor. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyri... The Valkyrie never was productionized and only 2 aircraft were ever built.
    - techdragon 4y ago
      And sadly only one survives to this day due to an absolutely incredible mid air disaster during what was an otherwise “routine” photo op flight.
      - dtparr 4y ago
        In case anyone is wondering, since it was a photo op flight, there's a photo of it shortly after the midair collision, missing a vert stabilizer. The fireball is the F-104 that contacted it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyrie#/media/File%3ANorth_American_XB-70A_Valkyrie_just_after_collision_061122-F-1234P-037.jpg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_XB-70_Valkyri...
        eternalban 4y ago
        Apropos of nothing but F-4 Phantoms still look badass and gorgeous.
    - hangonhn 4y ago
      Y'all seeing a pattern here? I don't think it's intentional but our fears drive us to escalate and pour money into things to counter things that don't really exist in the ways that we fear.
PedroBatista 4y ago
Both. You want to make your opponent to vastly overestimate your power where you are in fact weak so they don't even try it and underestimate your clear advantages so if they get any funny ideas they'll get their ass kicked.
refurb 4y ago
I think the goal is the specs are different enough to assume different capabilities. Whether a gun fires faster or slower isn’t good or bad, it just drives how it’s used.
bayesian_horse 4y ago
I'd guess it's always a weakness if you mispredict the other side's performance, whatever the circumstance.

bergenty 4y ago

None of this is scary though…