Too late to edit, but an edit: > You have to choose between [...] or doubling down and losing everything on purpose for nothing. If you choose to double down

Too late to edit, but an edit: > You have to choose between [...] or doubling down and losing everything on purpose for nothing. If you choose to double down you might get lucky and win, or some outside-context thing might happen and who knows. There's a range of not-impossible outcomes. The outcome doesn't justify the strategy unless the strategy produced it.