3 ms·

> As to "end up in the same situation", how will a typical US poor person end up in Guatemala "at any time"? War, climate change, economic collapse, etc. Black

> As to "end up in the same situation", how will a typical US poor person end up in Guatemala "at any time"? War, climate change, economic collapse, etc. Black swans happen. All empires collapse.

anamax 4y ago
If those things happen, Guatemala will not be better off than "poor in the US". More to the point, those are unlikely possibilities (in a given lifetime), while the negative effects of unlimited immigration on US poor are pretty much guaranteed.
- guerrilla 4y ago
  You chose the dumbest place to migrate to. The point is you'd be able to move to wherever is good if the world were free. > while the negative effects of unlimited immigration on US poor are pretty much guaranteed. > More to the point, those are unlikely possibilities (in a given lifetime), There are no probabilities, small or large, for black swan events. That's the point. Most of the things I listed though are inevitable though, so the unpredictability is more about when than if. You keep saying this like it's a fact but there's an entire continent as a counterexample and a lot of research on the benefits.
  - anamax 4y ago
    > The point is you'd be able to move to wherever is good if the world were free. Which pretty much guarantees that said "wherever is good" ceases to be good. > There are no probabilities, small or large, for black swan events. That's the point. Actually, there are. The probability of a black swan event is unknown in some sense, but we do know one of the bounds. Or rather, we do know something about how often they occur. We may under-estimate, but the fact that it hasn't happened often enough for us to have good bounds is, in itself, information about "how often". But, let's run the experiment. Let Europe take in everyone who wants in and we'll see how things work out in a couple of decades. If you're right, Europe will finally be able break free of US hegemony. If I'm right,...

> As to "end up in the same situation", how will a typical US poor person end up in Guatemala "at any time"? War, climate change, economic collapse, etc. Black swans happen. All empires collapse.

anamax 4y ago

If those things happen, Guatemala will not be better off than "poor in the US". More to the point, those are unlikely possibilities (in a given lifetime), while the negative effects of unlimited immigration on US poor are pretty much guaranteed.

guerrilla 4y ago
You chose the dumbest place to migrate to. The point is you'd be able to move to wherever is good if the world were free. > while the negative effects of unlimited immigration on US poor are pretty much guaranteed. > More to the point, those are unlikely possibilities (in a given lifetime), There are no probabilities, small or large, for black swan events. That's the point. Most of the things I listed though are inevitable though, so the unpredictability is more about when than if. You keep saying this like it's a fact but there's an entire continent as a counterexample and a lot of research on the benefits.
- anamax 4y ago
  > The point is you'd be able to move to wherever is good if the world were free. Which pretty much guarantees that said "wherever is good" ceases to be good. > There are no probabilities, small or large, for black swan events. That's the point. Actually, there are. The probability of a black swan event is unknown in some sense, but we do know one of the bounds. Or rather, we do know something about how often they occur. We may under-estimate, but the fact that it hasn't happened often enough for us to have good bounds is, in itself, information about "how often". But, let's run the experiment. Let Europe take in everyone who wants in and we'll see how things work out in a couple of decades. If you're right, Europe will finally be able break free of US hegemony. If I'm right,...