Running out of reply nesting, so replying here to your other reply. First, appreciate the toning down, few would do that. I'm not a very deep crypto expert, bu

Running out of reply nesting, so replying here to your other reply. First, appreciate the toning down, few would do that. I'm not a very deep crypto expert, but I can share some thoughts on cycles. Most of crypto has no cycle at all, as in...most are shitcoins. They die in a single cycle, as a short pump and dump. However, after their death new ones pop up when a new uptrend arrives. And then die again. These tokens lack "fundamentals", favorable attributes beyond speculation. Simply put, BTC dictates the pace of the entire crypto market, whether you believe in cycles or not. Every other token moves in extreme correlation with BTC price action. You can easily verify this claim by putting the charts side by side. They synchronize down to the second, which indicates algorithmic trading. Bitcoin's "cycles" supposedly are based on its once-every-4-years halving of block rewards, making supply increasingly scarce, against an exponentially increasing demand (which long term is true, despite short term selling). In turn, a 4 year cycle is cut up into a bull and bear part. This theory has been true-ish for 3 cycles, whether a sound theory or just by accident. But the model is kind of breaking in this current cycle. Some cope with this by calling it "cycle lengthening". The way I see it, crypto's entire existence has aligned with a period of funny money. Lots of cheap capital available for high-risk bets. So indeed you might as well theorize it has been a single super cycle. For shitcoins this theory doesn't matter, they get taken out every "small" cycle in any case. It only matters for BTC and ETH. I'm convinced BTC will easily survive but it might stay down for a long time, years even, not aligning with the usual cycle, if it ever existed.