Short term (3-6 months) I agree with you, and I think we've been seeing that for the past ~2 weeks with the stock market bouncing off its lows. Longer term, I'

Short term (3-6 months) I agree with you, and I think we've been seeing that for the past ~2 weeks with the stock market bouncing off its lows. Longer term, I'm pretty confident you're incorrect. The Fed is looking at the wage increases in the economy (which are blunting the effects of commodities inflation on the consumer) along with unionization drives and will definitely be hitting the brakes hard on the economy. So for example: "Fed Governor Christopher Waller says he's prepared to take rates past 'neutral' to fight inflation" https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-governor-christopher-waller-says-hes-prepared-to-take-rates-past-neutral-to-fight-inflation/ar-AAXT9co https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-governor-christo... But to really throw the brakes on the economy the yield curve should actually invert and short rates should be at least 3-4% or more. And I disagree with the title article that the recession is likely to be "mild" since the Fed is going to introduce significant amounts of pain and things like CMBS are pretty much primed to detonate and create a financial crisis (along with the likelihood of a massive crypto collapse). If the Republicans take over congress that will also create a lot more excitement than in 2008 since many of the Tea Party Republicans are ostensibly against bailouts and TBTF and will see economic chaos as a way to damage Biden.