4 ms·

I'd wager more people are poised to lose from a crash than ever before. Roughly 1/3rd of America is over 55+ [1], the highest it's ever been (I believe), and t

by jmoak3 4y ago

I'd wager more people are poised to lose from a crash than ever before. Roughly 1/3rd of America is over 55+ [1], the highest it's ever been (I believe), and the average baby boomer retirement savings are ~$200k [2]. Asset prices falling is an existential and imminent danger for these people. If prices stop rising, they will have to be supported directly by family or the state, or go out onto the street. For every working-age HN commenter calling for blood to run through Wall Street to be able to buy a starter home, there are just as many people terrified of the future. [1] https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2022/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2... [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-retirement-savings-baby-boomers-125500443.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Transamerica%20Center,income%20of%20%248%2C000%20per%20year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-retirement-savings-ba.... [2 alt] https://www.fool.com/retirement/2021/08/24/heres-baby-boomers-median-retirement-savings-balan/ https://www.fool.com/retirement/2021/08/24/heres-baby-boomer...

thebean11 4y ago
$200k not including social security though, which won't be nearly as impacted by a crash in equities. I also wonder how much of that $200k is in stocks vs bonds / CDs / home equity (not sure if this is counted) etc.
- jmoak3 4y ago
  Great observation, however Social Security only has 11 years before the system as we know it today has to cut payments [1]. I too would love to know the breakdown of the 200k. Even with Social Security payments however I still think a sharp fall in home prices or stock prices would be catastrophic for the retiring generation. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/03/social-security-insolvency/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/03/social-se... [1 skip paywall] https://archive.ph/OaBIv https://archive.ph/OaBIv EDIT: changed social security going from "bankrupt" to "cutting payments"
  - thebean11 4y ago
    There's a second option where they just raise social security taxes or inject other tax revenue into it. I think that's more likely, cutting payments seems politically unfeasible.

by jmoak3 4y ago

thebean11 4y ago

$200k not including social security though, which won't be nearly as impacted by a crash in equities. I also wonder how much of that $200k is in stocks vs bonds / CDs / home equity (not sure if this is counted) etc.

jmoak3 4y ago
Great observation, however Social Security only has 11 years before the system as we know it today has to cut payments [1]. I too would love to know the breakdown of the 200k. Even with Social Security payments however I still think a sharp fall in home prices or stock prices would be catastrophic for the retiring generation. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/03/social-security-insolvency/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/03/social-se... [1 skip paywall] https://archive.ph/OaBIv https://archive.ph/OaBIv EDIT: changed social security going from "bankrupt" to "cutting payments"
- thebean11 4y ago
  There's a second option where they just raise social security taxes or inject other tax revenue into it. I think that's more likely, cutting payments seems politically unfeasible.