> Realize that probability is useful in poker but not that useful in life, thus it is impossible to calculate mathematical expectation. That's very backwards.

> Realize that probability is useful in poker but not that useful in life, thus it is impossible to calculate mathematical expectation. That's very backwards. Sure, "exact" expectation no. But you can add errors bars to all your estimates, that's the basis of statistics. Being able to correctly estimate things and adjust for uncertainty is incredibly useful in life. Unlike poker, you have time to actually punch things into a calculator and consider different scenarios if you want to be super diligent but most things can be intuited if you have a solid grasp of probability/statistics. To be super pragmatic, the whole thing with fake news and misinformation wouldn't exist if people just applied Bayes theorem. For instance, people will say something like P(vaccine is dangerous | bad pharma company) = 1 but then P(bad pharma) = 0 in the sense that Pfizer doesn't want to kill people.