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Elon Musk may not be a sympathetic Human being, but he certainly isn't a grifter. What amazes me the most is that he is able to get project management in place

Elon Musk may not be a sympathetic Human being, but he certainly isn't a grifter. What amazes me the most is that he is able to get project management in place that works. Somehow most (or all) of his companies get shit done, and it is indeed some amazingly complex shit. That may be his super power, beyond having been lucky with his first investments giving him the billions for the next endeavors.

foobiekr 4y ago
Selling, not just promising, people FSD for years when it was and is no where in sight isn’t a grift?
- robertlagrant 4y ago
  He said lots of crazy things would happen. Most of them have. A grifter promises things, none of which have ever happened.
  - antonvs 4y ago
    I don't think most of them have, in fact most of them haven't. Hyperloop, Cybertruck, inter-city rocket flights, Mars colony - these are ideas that haven't or won't succeed because they're ridiculously impractical and/or pointless, and seem to be more about projecting a futuristic image than anything else. (The alternative explanation is that he's a lot dumber than he seems.) But, he throws ideas at the wall and some of them work out. It's a similar thing venture capital companies do with their startup portfolios, but mixed in with a lot more futuristic PR fluff ideas.
    - bayesian_horse 4y ago
      If he listened to you he'd probably get extremely depressed really quickly, despite all the success he did undoubtedly have!
      - antonvs 4y ago
        He'd only get depressed if he actually believed in those ideas, as opposed to just using them for image-building purposes. For the inter-city rocket flight one in particular, it's hard to believe he could seriously think that's practical, and certainly if he ran the idea past any experts at his companies they'd be able to tell him why it's not. If you look at how he uses Twitter and other public ways to pump up stock prices, it seems likely that he figured out early on that there's lots of money in convincing people that the future is just around the corner and that you should buy shares in his companies to get in on the action. He's the wealthiest-on-paper person in the world not because of the value produced by his companies, but because of the future value he's convinced people that his companies have.
        robertlagrant 4y ago
        All shares are priced based on the total value of a company over its lifetime.
    - smcl 4y ago
      > The alternative explanation is that he's a lot dumber than he seems In light of his recent difficulties with Python (and in combination with a few other bizarre comments and actions) this is starting to seem increasingly likely.
    - robertlagrant 4y ago
      You're missing reusable rockets, robot barges, supercharger network, desirable electric cars, cars over 400 mile range, installing a battery farm in South Australia in 100 days or less... I can't believe you're serious if you don't think any one of these would be considered career-capping achievements for most people.
      - robertlagrant 4y ago
        Oh, satellite-based internet as well. I forgot an enormous achievement due to the length of the grifter's list.
        antonvs 4y ago
        Starlink may actually be a great example of the grift. Starlink is not a widely available functioning system yet, and there's a strong chance it may never be. Musk himself has been dropping hints to that effect, and there are plenty of analyses out there of the problems with the Starlink business model. Musk's own statements make it clear that he knows Starlink has a high chance of failure - but, it has a big benefit for him because it drives demand for SpaceX launches and, at least until it does fail, it bolsters the public image and feeds the futuristic vision he's trying to sell people. My previous comment wasn't saying Musk hasn't achieved anything. I was making a couple of points: 1. He tends to throw more ideas, more publicly, at the wall than most tech entrepreneurs. 2. Some of those ideas seem to be obviously impractical, to the point that he (hopefully!) must realize that, and the're probably intended more to boost the image of his companies in order to pump up stock value. And if you accept this line of argument, it's been a staggering success, making him the richest on-paper person in the world based on a car company and an aerospace company which, without his clever grift, would be worth a tiny fraction of their current valuation.
    - rlt 4y ago
      On the other hand, he has, in fact, built the world’s largest EV manufacturer (~70% EV market share, globally, 2021) and world’s largest space launch provider (~66% mass to orbit, globally, 2021)
- bufferoverflow 4y ago
  "Nowhere in sight" is a lie. You can clearly see the progress of FSD beta. The last one is quite good.
  - foobiekr 4y ago
    It’s not alive. It’s an observation of the reality of the thing that Tesla has actually shipped. Dangerous, prone to failure, beyond untrustworthy. Don’t be fooled by the easy cases. No one ever believed that the easy parts would be the problem and Tesla has made zero progress on the hard aspects.
robertlagrant 4y ago
Looks like they use agile methodologies for hardware creation, so there may be less project management than you think.
- bayesian_horse 4y ago
  Whatever they do seems to work a lot better than what others do or don't call "agile".
  - robertlagrant 4y ago
    Things that people do or don't call "agile" presumably encompasses everything in the universe.
    - bayesian_horse 4y ago
      Yes, this is my point. I'm not a fan of the "agile nomenclature". I see project management failing a lot. I can only marvel at the stuff and complexity SpaceX and Tesla seem to be able to pull off, both in terms of software and hardware engineering and other organizing and logistics.
smcl 4y ago
One thing to remember is that these companies are ones that he's effectively just bought, he's not necessarily bootstrapped them and dictated how they should operate and organize, we don’t know how involved he is. The only things I've really heard from him as a leader are from Tesla - demanding people work longer hours, forcing employees to work during covid, union busting and stuff like that. So this suggests that either - he is publicly brash and careless, but privately very efficient and savvy - or his companies get shit done without his involvement, or despite his attempts at getting involved rather than because of them.
- icemelt8 4y ago
  The Giga Factory was made by Musk and it was his idea, it is the epitome of efficiency.
- rlt 4y ago
  Blatant misinformation. Musk joined Tesla when there were I believe 3 or 4 other people. He founded SpaceX himself. He help fund both with essentially all the money he made from PayPal. And he’s known for being incredibly hands on, sometimes literally living in Tesla’s and SpaceX’s factories. He might be brash but he’s clearly been an effective leader.

foobiekr 4y ago

Selling, not just promising, people FSD for years when it was and is no where in sight isn’t a grift?

robertlagrant 4y ago
He said lots of crazy things would happen. Most of them have. A grifter promises things, none of which have ever happened.
- antonvs 4y ago
  I don't think most of them have, in fact most of them haven't. Hyperloop, Cybertruck, inter-city rocket flights, Mars colony - these are ideas that haven't or won't succeed because they're ridiculously impractical and/or pointless, and seem to be more about projecting a futuristic image than anything else. (The alternative explanation is that he's a lot dumber than he seems.) But, he throws ideas at the wall and some of them work out. It's a similar thing venture capital companies do with their startup portfolios, but mixed in with a lot more futuristic PR fluff ideas.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    If he listened to you he'd probably get extremely depressed really quickly, despite all the success he did undoubtedly have!
    - antonvs 4y ago
      He'd only get depressed if he actually believed in those ideas, as opposed to just using them for image-building purposes. For the inter-city rocket flight one in particular, it's hard to believe he could seriously think that's practical, and certainly if he ran the idea past any experts at his companies they'd be able to tell him why it's not. If you look at how he uses Twitter and other public ways to pump up stock prices, it seems likely that he figured out early on that there's lots of money in convincing people that the future is just around the corner and that you should buy shares in his companies to get in on the action. He's the wealthiest-on-paper person in the world not because of the value produced by his companies, but because of the future value he's convinced people that his companies have.
      - robertlagrant 4y ago
        All shares are priced based on the total value of a company over its lifetime.
  - smcl 4y ago
    > The alternative explanation is that he's a lot dumber than he seems In light of his recent difficulties with Python (and in combination with a few other bizarre comments and actions) this is starting to seem increasingly likely.
  - robertlagrant 4y ago
    You're missing reusable rockets, robot barges, supercharger network, desirable electric cars, cars over 400 mile range, installing a battery farm in South Australia in 100 days or less... I can't believe you're serious if you don't think any one of these would be considered career-capping achievements for most people.
    - robertlagrant 4y ago
      Oh, satellite-based internet as well. I forgot an enormous achievement due to the length of the grifter's list.
      - antonvs 4y ago
        Starlink may actually be a great example of the grift. Starlink is not a widely available functioning system yet, and there's a strong chance it may never be. Musk himself has been dropping hints to that effect, and there are plenty of analyses out there of the problems with the Starlink business model. Musk's own statements make it clear that he knows Starlink has a high chance of failure - but, it has a big benefit for him because it drives demand for SpaceX launches and, at least until it does fail, it bolsters the public image and feeds the futuristic vision he's trying to sell people. My previous comment wasn't saying Musk hasn't achieved anything. I was making a couple of points: 1. He tends to throw more ideas, more publicly, at the wall than most tech entrepreneurs. 2. Some of those ideas seem to be obviously impractical, to the point that he (hopefully!) must realize that, and the're probably intended more to boost the image of his companies in order to pump up stock value. And if you accept this line of argument, it's been a staggering success, making him the richest on-paper person in the world based on a car company and an aerospace company which, without his clever grift, would be worth a tiny fraction of their current valuation.
  - rlt 4y ago
    On the other hand, he has, in fact, built the world’s largest EV manufacturer (~70% EV market share, globally, 2021) and world’s largest space launch provider (~66% mass to orbit, globally, 2021)
bufferoverflow 4y ago
"Nowhere in sight" is a lie. You can clearly see the progress of FSD beta. The last one is quite good.
- foobiekr 4y ago
  It’s not alive. It’s an observation of the reality of the thing that Tesla has actually shipped. Dangerous, prone to failure, beyond untrustworthy. Don’t be fooled by the easy cases. No one ever believed that the easy parts would be the problem and Tesla has made zero progress on the hard aspects.

robertlagrant 4y ago

Looks like they use agile methodologies for hardware creation, so there may be less project management than you think.

bayesian_horse 4y ago
Whatever they do seems to work a lot better than what others do or don't call "agile".
- robertlagrant 4y ago
  Things that people do or don't call "agile" presumably encompasses everything in the universe.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    Yes, this is my point. I'm not a fan of the "agile nomenclature". I see project management failing a lot. I can only marvel at the stuff and complexity SpaceX and Tesla seem to be able to pull off, both in terms of software and hardware engineering and other organizing and logistics.

smcl 4y ago

One thing to remember is that these companies are ones that he's effectively just bought, he's not necessarily bootstrapped them and dictated how they should operate and organize, we don’t know how involved he is. The only things I've really heard from him as a leader are from Tesla - demanding people work longer hours, forcing employees to work during covid, union busting and stuff like that. So this suggests that either - he is publicly brash and careless, but privately very efficient and savvy - or his companies get shit done without his involvement, or despite his attempts at getting involved rather than because of them.

icemelt8 4y ago
The Giga Factory was made by Musk and it was his idea, it is the epitome of efficiency.
rlt 4y ago
Blatant misinformation. Musk joined Tesla when there were I believe 3 or 4 other people. He founded SpaceX himself. He help fund both with essentially all the money he made from PayPal. And he’s known for being incredibly hands on, sometimes literally living in Tesla’s and SpaceX’s factories. He might be brash but he’s clearly been an effective leader.