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He's smart enough to say "self driving cars are coming soon" or "neural link will be done in five years" or the millions of other things he's said are right aro

He's smart enough to say "self driving cars are coming soon" or "neural link will be done in five years" or the millions of other things he's said are right around the corner. The other grifters weren't as smart.

extheat 4y ago
All companies should seek to be ambitious. It’s one thing to have a tangible product in development be hyped and other to be selling literal vaporware without the internet of delivering or lying about possessions.
- itsoktocry 4y ago
  >It’s one thing to have a tangible product in development be hyped and other to be selling literal vaporware And which is "Full Self Driving"? One man's very early stage "tangible product" is another's "vapourware".
bayesian_horse 4y ago
Elon Musk may not be a sympathetic Human being, but he certainly isn't a grifter. What amazes me the most is that he is able to get project management in place that works. Somehow most (or all) of his companies get shit done, and it is indeed some amazingly complex shit. That may be his super power, beyond having been lucky with his first investments giving him the billions for the next endeavors.
- foobiekr 4y ago
  Selling, not just promising, people FSD for years when it was and is no where in sight isn’t a grift?
  - robertlagrant 4y ago
    He said lots of crazy things would happen. Most of them have. A grifter promises things, none of which have ever happened.
    - antonvs 4y ago
      I don't think most of them have, in fact most of them haven't. Hyperloop, Cybertruck, inter-city rocket flights, Mars colony - these are ideas that haven't or won't succeed because they're ridiculously impractical and/or pointless, and seem to be more about projecting a futuristic image than anything else. (The alternative explanation is that he's a lot dumber than he seems.) But, he throws ideas at the wall and some of them work out. It's a similar thing venture capital companies do with their startup portfolios, but mixed in with a lot more futuristic PR fluff ideas.
      - bayesian_horse 4y ago
        If he listened to you he'd probably get extremely depressed really quickly, despite all the success he did undoubtedly have!
        antonvs 4y ago
        He'd only get depressed if he actually believed in those ideas, as opposed to just using them for image-building purposes. For the inter-city rocket flight one in particular, it's hard to believe he could seriously think that's practical, and certainly if he ran the idea past any experts at his companies they'd be able to tell him why it's not. If you look at how he uses Twitter and other public ways to pump up stock prices, it seems likely that he figured out early on that there's lots of money in convincing people that the future is just around the corner and that you should buy shares in his companies to get in on the action. He's the wealthiest-on-paper person in the world not because of the value produced by his companies, but because of the future value he's convinced people that his companies have.
        robertlagrant 4y ago
        All shares are priced based on the total value of a company over its lifetime.
      - smcl 4y ago
        > The alternative explanation is that he's a lot dumber than he seems In light of his recent difficulties with Python (and in combination with a few other bizarre comments and actions) this is starting to seem increasingly likely.
  - bufferoverflow 4y ago
    "Nowhere in sight" is a lie. You can clearly see the progress of FSD beta. The last one is quite good.
    - foobiekr 4y ago
      It’s not alive. It’s an observation of the reality of the thing that Tesla has actually shipped. Dangerous, prone to failure, beyond untrustworthy. Don’t be fooled by the easy cases. No one ever believed that the easy parts would be the problem and Tesla has made zero progress on the hard aspects.
- robertlagrant 4y ago
  Looks like they use agile methodologies for hardware creation, so there may be less project management than you think.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    Whatever they do seems to work a lot better than what others do or don't call "agile".
    - robertlagrant 4y ago
      Things that people do or don't call "agile" presumably encompasses everything in the universe.
      - bayesian_horse 4y ago
        Yes, this is my point. I'm not a fan of the "agile nomenclature". I see project management failing a lot. I can only marvel at the stuff and complexity SpaceX and Tesla seem to be able to pull off, both in terms of software and hardware engineering and other organizing and logistics.
- smcl 4y ago
  One thing to remember is that these companies are ones that he's effectively just bought, he's not necessarily bootstrapped them and dictated how they should operate and organize, we don’t know how involved he is. The only things I've really heard from him as a leader are from Tesla - demanding people work longer hours, forcing employees to work during covid, union busting and stuff like that. So this suggests that either - he is publicly brash and careless, but privately very efficient and savvy - or his companies get shit done without his involvement, or despite his attempts at getting involved rather than because of them.
  - icemelt8 4y ago
    The Giga Factory was made by Musk and it was his idea, it is the epitome of efficiency.
  - rlt 4y ago
    Blatant misinformation. Musk joined Tesla when there were I believe 3 or 4 other people. He founded SpaceX himself. He help fund both with essentially all the money he made from PayPal. And he’s known for being incredibly hands on, sometimes literally living in Tesla’s and SpaceX’s factories. He might be brash but he’s clearly been an effective leader.
bufferoverflow 4y ago
Elon has things to show for these claims. His cars do self-drive, though not at an average human level yet. But if you've been following the progress, he is quickly approaching that point. Same with neuralink, it's not just words.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Musk bought into both of those, however much he would like it forgotten. The only thing he started himself that has worked out so far is SpaceX. Yet the whole Martian colony line is 100% grift. Starlink might yet flop, as it needs more subscribers than it probably can support. SpaceX has been very good at eliciting government handouts. Starship will absolutely not be able to turn around in less than 30 days until after they figure out a tile scheme different enough from NASA's, if ever. It is very far from certain the chopsticks catching scheme will work. Each time a Superheavy detonates on the launchpad (which will happen) will set them back months, because it will wipe out the whole "stage 0" and tank farm.
  - rlt 4y ago
    Typical anti-Musk talking points. > Musk bought into both of those Very early on. And grew, at least Tesla, many orders of magnitude from early prototype to mass production. > SpaceX has been very good at eliciting government handouts Contracts, not handouts. Which they have delivered on in spades. Starship and Starlink are still early, yes. But Falcon 9 has brought launch costs down considerably, is putting more mass to orbit than the rest of the world combined, and is currently the only way the United States can get astronauts into orbit.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      You correctly note that of all Musk initiatives, only SpaceX has shown partial success, and that only via direct government subsidy. You correctly do not assert that Martian colonization or suborbital passenger or freight service are better than grift even with a 100% Starship success. You correctly do not assert that any other Musk initiative, including hyperloop, domestic robots, self-driving cars, electric trucks, are anything other than grift.

extheat 4y ago

All companies should seek to be ambitious. It’s one thing to have a tangible product in development be hyped and other to be selling literal vaporware without the internet of delivering or lying about possessions.

itsoktocry 4y ago
>It’s one thing to have a tangible product in development be hyped and other to be selling literal vaporware And which is "Full Self Driving"? One man's very early stage "tangible product" is another's "vapourware".

bayesian_horse 4y ago

Elon Musk may not be a sympathetic Human being, but he certainly isn't a grifter. What amazes me the most is that he is able to get project management in place that works. Somehow most (or all) of his companies get shit done, and it is indeed some amazingly complex shit. That may be his super power, beyond having been lucky with his first investments giving him the billions for the next endeavors.

foobiekr 4y ago
Selling, not just promising, people FSD for years when it was and is no where in sight isn’t a grift?
- robertlagrant 4y ago
  He said lots of crazy things would happen. Most of them have. A grifter promises things, none of which have ever happened.
  - antonvs 4y ago
    I don't think most of them have, in fact most of them haven't. Hyperloop, Cybertruck, inter-city rocket flights, Mars colony - these are ideas that haven't or won't succeed because they're ridiculously impractical and/or pointless, and seem to be more about projecting a futuristic image than anything else. (The alternative explanation is that he's a lot dumber than he seems.) But, he throws ideas at the wall and some of them work out. It's a similar thing venture capital companies do with their startup portfolios, but mixed in with a lot more futuristic PR fluff ideas.
    - bayesian_horse 4y ago
      If he listened to you he'd probably get extremely depressed really quickly, despite all the success he did undoubtedly have!
      - antonvs 4y ago
        He'd only get depressed if he actually believed in those ideas, as opposed to just using them for image-building purposes. For the inter-city rocket flight one in particular, it's hard to believe he could seriously think that's practical, and certainly if he ran the idea past any experts at his companies they'd be able to tell him why it's not. If you look at how he uses Twitter and other public ways to pump up stock prices, it seems likely that he figured out early on that there's lots of money in convincing people that the future is just around the corner and that you should buy shares in his companies to get in on the action. He's the wealthiest-on-paper person in the world not because of the value produced by his companies, but because of the future value he's convinced people that his companies have.
        robertlagrant 4y ago
        All shares are priced based on the total value of a company over its lifetime.
    - smcl 4y ago
      > The alternative explanation is that he's a lot dumber than he seems In light of his recent difficulties with Python (and in combination with a few other bizarre comments and actions) this is starting to seem increasingly likely.
- bufferoverflow 4y ago
  "Nowhere in sight" is a lie. You can clearly see the progress of FSD beta. The last one is quite good.
  - foobiekr 4y ago
    It’s not alive. It’s an observation of the reality of the thing that Tesla has actually shipped. Dangerous, prone to failure, beyond untrustworthy. Don’t be fooled by the easy cases. No one ever believed that the easy parts would be the problem and Tesla has made zero progress on the hard aspects.
robertlagrant 4y ago
Looks like they use agile methodologies for hardware creation, so there may be less project management than you think.
- bayesian_horse 4y ago
  Whatever they do seems to work a lot better than what others do or don't call "agile".
  - robertlagrant 4y ago
    Things that people do or don't call "agile" presumably encompasses everything in the universe.
    - bayesian_horse 4y ago
      Yes, this is my point. I'm not a fan of the "agile nomenclature". I see project management failing a lot. I can only marvel at the stuff and complexity SpaceX and Tesla seem to be able to pull off, both in terms of software and hardware engineering and other organizing and logistics.
smcl 4y ago
One thing to remember is that these companies are ones that he's effectively just bought, he's not necessarily bootstrapped them and dictated how they should operate and organize, we don’t know how involved he is. The only things I've really heard from him as a leader are from Tesla - demanding people work longer hours, forcing employees to work during covid, union busting and stuff like that. So this suggests that either - he is publicly brash and careless, but privately very efficient and savvy - or his companies get shit done without his involvement, or despite his attempts at getting involved rather than because of them.
- icemelt8 4y ago
  The Giga Factory was made by Musk and it was his idea, it is the epitome of efficiency.
- rlt 4y ago
  Blatant misinformation. Musk joined Tesla when there were I believe 3 or 4 other people. He founded SpaceX himself. He help fund both with essentially all the money he made from PayPal. And he’s known for being incredibly hands on, sometimes literally living in Tesla’s and SpaceX’s factories. He might be brash but he’s clearly been an effective leader.

bufferoverflow 4y ago

Elon has things to show for these claims. His cars do self-drive, though not at an average human level yet. But if you've been following the progress, he is quickly approaching that point. Same with neuralink, it's not just words.

ncmncm 4y ago
Musk bought into both of those, however much he would like it forgotten. The only thing he started himself that has worked out so far is SpaceX. Yet the whole Martian colony line is 100% grift. Starlink might yet flop, as it needs more subscribers than it probably can support. SpaceX has been very good at eliciting government handouts. Starship will absolutely not be able to turn around in less than 30 days until after they figure out a tile scheme different enough from NASA's, if ever. It is very far from certain the chopsticks catching scheme will work. Each time a Superheavy detonates on the launchpad (which will happen) will set them back months, because it will wipe out the whole "stage 0" and tank farm.
- rlt 4y ago
  Typical anti-Musk talking points. > Musk bought into both of those Very early on. And grew, at least Tesla, many orders of magnitude from early prototype to mass production. > SpaceX has been very good at eliciting government handouts Contracts, not handouts. Which they have delivered on in spades. Starship and Starlink are still early, yes. But Falcon 9 has brought launch costs down considerably, is putting more mass to orbit than the rest of the world combined, and is currently the only way the United States can get astronauts into orbit.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    You correctly note that of all Musk initiatives, only SpaceX has shown partial success, and that only via direct government subsidy. You correctly do not assert that Martian colonization or suborbital passenger or freight service are better than grift even with a 100% Starship success. You correctly do not assert that any other Musk initiative, including hyperloop, domestic robots, self-driving cars, electric trucks, are anything other than grift.