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From the article: What’s going to replace oil? Why replace oil? It is relatively dense, we have 70,000 years worth, and it is rechargeable.

pragmatic 18y ago
An interesting study in bias from so called free thinkers. You can think freely as long as it agrees with the consensus. (I'm referring to how this was voted down.)
- tptacek 18y ago
  It's not "bias" just because you sympathize with the argument. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence; instead of offering any, this commenter simply says "oil is rechargable and we have enough of it for the foreseeable future", despite a welter of evidence contradicting those statements. That strikes me as less of an argument than a cry for attention.
DaniFong 18y ago
Accessing those 70,000 years worth is very costly. The carbon in accessible fossil fuels is around 1600 gigatons, which will be exhausted in much closer to 100 years than 70,000. Doing so would pitch our atmospheric carbon content around 2200 gigatons, nearly three times the current content of 600 gigatons. http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20050.htm http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20050.htm Based on physical models pointing at similar conclusions from a plethora of different directions, this will raise temperatures. By how much? We'd reach approximately 1650 ppm carbon. At only 1000 ppm, many models predict a raise of temperature from 3.5 to almost ten degrees C (varying across the world). Most importantly, the heat will mostly be circulated to polar regions, melting them. The last step of the argument is quite well known: at 4.5 degrees C, the land borne glaciers will begin to melt, drowning entire cities and countries. Before that happens, 20-50% species will be lost, and billions will face water shortages. The ensuing ecological niches and prevalence of human targets may end up creating many new diseases. http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20046.htm http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20046.htm http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20054.htm http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20054.htm Why replace oil? Because it's tremendously risky not to, and not nearly so hard as people seem to believe.
- DabAsteroid 18y ago
  this will raise temperatures. That might objectively be the case, but it is not the case, according to ESR -- and it is his article that we are discussing. Did you read the article?: [I] don’t believe [CO2 emissions are] driving global warming. ... The pressing question, then, remains: What’s going to replace oil? So, aside from greenhouse-gas considerations, why replace oil? . accessible fossil fuels ... will be exhausted in much closer to 100 years than 70,000. For 150 years, oil supplies have continuously been pronounced to be on the verge of running out. And for 150 years, oil production has continuously increased. http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html • 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages. • 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124). ... • 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply." • 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation." • 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." ... • 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said. • 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain. ... • 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain. • 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrels of oil remain. • 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. ... • 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels. . Oil production has continuously increased as society has gotten continuously better at finding and exploiting the oil in the earth's crust. Why should we assume that that process would stop any time soon -- especially in the face of estimates of total in-place oil that put our supply lifetime in the tens of thousands of years? http://www.google.com/search?q=2.1+quadrillion+barrels+oil http://www.google.com/search?q=2.1+quadrillion+barrels+oil ~2.1 quadrillion bbl / ~80 million bbl/day = ~72 thousand years of oil.

pragmatic 18y ago

An interesting study in bias from so called free thinkers. You can think freely as long as it agrees with the consensus. (I'm referring to how this was voted down.)

tptacek 18y ago
It's not "bias" just because you sympathize with the argument. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence; instead of offering any, this commenter simply says "oil is rechargable and we have enough of it for the foreseeable future", despite a welter of evidence contradicting those statements. That strikes me as less of an argument than a cry for attention.

DaniFong 18y ago

Accessing those 70,000 years worth is very costly. The carbon in accessible fossil fuels is around 1600 gigatons, which will be exhausted in much closer to 100 years than 70,000. Doing so would pitch our atmospheric carbon content around 2200 gigatons, nearly three times the current content of 600 gigatons. http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20050.htm http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20050.htm Based on physical models pointing at similar conclusions from a plethora of different directions, this will raise temperatures. By how much? We'd reach approximately 1650 ppm carbon. At only 1000 ppm, many models predict a raise of temperature from 3.5 to almost ten degrees C (varying across the world). Most importantly, the heat will mostly be circulated to polar regions, melting them. The last step of the argument is quite well known: at 4.5 degrees C, the land borne glaciers will begin to melt, drowning entire cities and countries. Before that happens, 20-50% species will be lost, and billions will face water shortages. The ensuing ecological niches and prevalence of human targets may end up creating many new diseases. http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20046.htm http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20046.htm http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20054.htm http://www.wattzon.org/plan/pages/GamePlan_v1.0%20054.htm Why replace oil? Because it's tremendously risky not to, and not nearly so hard as people seem to believe.

DabAsteroid 18y ago
this will raise temperatures. That might objectively be the case, but it is not the case, according to ESR -- and it is his article that we are discussing. Did you read the article?: [I] don’t believe [CO2 emissions are] driving global warming. ... The pressing question, then, remains: What’s going to replace oil? So, aside from greenhouse-gas considerations, why replace oil? . accessible fossil fuels ... will be exhausted in much closer to 100 years than 70,000. For 150 years, oil supplies have continuously been pronounced to be on the verge of running out. And for 150 years, oil production has continuously increased. http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html • 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages. • 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124). ... • 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply." • 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation." • 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." ... • 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said. • 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain. ... • 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain. • 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrels of oil remain. • 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. ... • 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels. . Oil production has continuously increased as society has gotten continuously better at finding and exploiting the oil in the earth's crust. Why should we assume that that process would stop any time soon -- especially in the face of estimates of total in-place oil that put our supply lifetime in the tens of thousands of years? http://www.google.com/search?q=2.1+quadrillion+barrels+oil http://www.google.com/search?q=2.1+quadrillion+barrels+oil ~2.1 quadrillion bbl / ~80 million bbl/day = ~72 thousand years of oil.