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Meta reported revenue of $27.9 billion in Q1 2022. They will continue making billions from ads for decades even if the metaverse play goes nowhere. But if you b

Meta reported revenue of $27.9 billion in Q1 2022. They will continue making billions from ads for decades even if the metaverse play goes nowhere. But if you believe that VR/AR is going to eventually go mainstream then Meta is positioned to be a player in that market, even if it’s just a 2nd or 3rd place player that’s potentially billions in additional revenue.

tempsy 4y ago
Well the epic stock slide over past few months would tell you investors are highly cautious about the company’s future.
- tejohnso 4y ago
  On a 3 month chart FB is down 10% from start to now. That's hardly "epic". And the NASDAQ composite is down 13% in the same time frame.
  - tempsy 4y ago
    -44% ytd lol why write something in bad faith?
    - edmundsauto 4y ago
      Tech as a whole is down 27% over that period, which means $FB underperformed but not by a whole lot.
      - tempsy 4y ago
        QQQ is down 23% ytd so they underperformed the Nasdaq 100 by 2000 bps. that is objectively “a lot” especially for a mega cap.
    - tejohnso 4y ago
      Why assume bad faith? You said "past few months" and so I quickly pulled up a 3 month history which is a dropdown option in the UI I was looking at. I replied with what I saw.
      - tempsy 4y ago
        anyone who follows the stock market will not accuse me of being hyperbolic about FB’s stock plummeting in recent months, and yes 5 months is also “a few” lol…
  - dylan604 4y ago
    10% is about what everyone in today's economy seems to be doing. it's the bigger slide from Apple blocking their tracking that should be more worrisome than a natural economic hiccup
  - loeg 4y ago
    That's a pretty selective lookback. The big slide was 4 months ago. If you look at trailing 6 months, FB is down 40%, vs down 10% for S&P500 or 23% for NASDAQ.
- garettmd 4y ago
  Everything is going down right now. -10% over the last 3 months doesn't seem that epic to me.
  - tempsy 4y ago
    -44% ytd is epic
  - PheonixPharts 4y ago
    It seems wildly disingenuous to talk about 3 months when the initial Facebook crash was after their earnings call 4 months ago.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- tyrfing 4y ago
  They make $200/year per user in North America, all 250 million of them. Cut that to 1/3 and their value as a company is far lower, but they still make more per user than a subscription service like Netflix. Now, you can say "nobody thought that ARPU was sustainable", but they have a long history of making unbelievable numbers bigger. Their real mistake was not pushing to own the entire vertical stack, building unassailable moats like Google and Apple. Oculus is that bet, and other companies like Valve are pursuing similar strategies.
lbhdc 4y ago
I don't think most people think it will crater and be gone tomorrow. I suspect people tend to think that if it is on a decline it will be a long slow death.
loceng 4y ago
Ads are the past.
- justapassenger 4y ago
  Ads have been around for as long as we had economic activity as humans. They’re past as much as selling is past. Now, is their ads business strong enough to survive in more privacy aware world? That’s a different story.
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  The entire internet subsists on ads. Even Amazon retail, a store that sells physical goods makes its profit selling ads. If anything they're only going to become more important as to internet becomes more accessible to low resource individuals around the world.
  - PheonixPharts 4y ago
    > The entire internet subsists on ads. I don't understand how people can make this statement and not immediately realize their is something deeply, deeply wrong about this situation. Ads derive their value from the product being sold, the fact that ads themselves have become the economic underpinning of the entire internet, rather than actual things being sold, should tell you there is a problem.
    - fleddr 4y ago
      Everybody realizes it's wrong. The issue is not a lack of understanding. The issue is the lack of an alternative. People will not pay a penny for the vast majority of the internet, whether they be social networks or just plain websites. They won't donate either or do "micro transactions", not at the scale in which ads currently deliver revenue. So for the vast majority of the internet, no ads = no money. And it ends right there, hobbyist bloggers aside.
      - fumar 4y ago
        I was recently taken aback by how much some of the online major destinations make per site load with ads. It is over $.04 USD. People visit hundreds of pages per day. What consumer will pay over $10 daily to access content that is free with ads?
jjtheblunt 4y ago
> They will continue making billions from ads for decades even if the metaverse play goes nowhere. and no competitors outperform them, or advertising paradigm shift occurs?
- Barrin92 4y ago
  hard to imagine tbh, they own three of the world's five largest communication platforms.
  - skinnymuch 4y ago
    If Messenger is seen as its own platform which I think it can be, that makes 4 of the top 5

tempsy 4y ago

Well the epic stock slide over past few months would tell you investors are highly cautious about the company’s future.

tejohnso 4y ago
On a 3 month chart FB is down 10% from start to now. That's hardly "epic". And the NASDAQ composite is down 13% in the same time frame.
- tempsy 4y ago
  -44% ytd lol why write something in bad faith?
  - edmundsauto 4y ago
    Tech as a whole is down 27% over that period, which means $FB underperformed but not by a whole lot.
    - tempsy 4y ago
      QQQ is down 23% ytd so they underperformed the Nasdaq 100 by 2000 bps. that is objectively “a lot” especially for a mega cap.
  - tejohnso 4y ago
    Why assume bad faith? You said "past few months" and so I quickly pulled up a 3 month history which is a dropdown option in the UI I was looking at. I replied with what I saw.
    - tempsy 4y ago
      anyone who follows the stock market will not accuse me of being hyperbolic about FB’s stock plummeting in recent months, and yes 5 months is also “a few” lol…
- dylan604 4y ago
  10% is about what everyone in today's economy seems to be doing. it's the bigger slide from Apple blocking their tracking that should be more worrisome than a natural economic hiccup
- loeg 4y ago
  That's a pretty selective lookback. The big slide was 4 months ago. If you look at trailing 6 months, FB is down 40%, vs down 10% for S&P500 or 23% for NASDAQ.
garettmd 4y ago
Everything is going down right now. -10% over the last 3 months doesn't seem that epic to me.
- tempsy 4y ago
  -44% ytd is epic
- PheonixPharts 4y ago
  It seems wildly disingenuous to talk about 3 months when the initial Facebook crash was after their earnings call 4 months ago.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
tyrfing 4y ago
They make $200/year per user in North America, all 250 million of them. Cut that to 1/3 and their value as a company is far lower, but they still make more per user than a subscription service like Netflix. Now, you can say "nobody thought that ARPU was sustainable", but they have a long history of making unbelievable numbers bigger. Their real mistake was not pushing to own the entire vertical stack, building unassailable moats like Google and Apple. Oculus is that bet, and other companies like Valve are pursuing similar strategies.

lbhdc 4y ago

I don't think most people think it will crater and be gone tomorrow. I suspect people tend to think that if it is on a decline it will be a long slow death.

loceng 4y ago

Ads are the past.

justapassenger 4y ago
Ads have been around for as long as we had economic activity as humans. They’re past as much as selling is past. Now, is their ads business strong enough to survive in more privacy aware world? That’s a different story.
colinmhayes 4y ago
The entire internet subsists on ads. Even Amazon retail, a store that sells physical goods makes its profit selling ads. If anything they're only going to become more important as to internet becomes more accessible to low resource individuals around the world.
- PheonixPharts 4y ago
  > The entire internet subsists on ads. I don't understand how people can make this statement and not immediately realize their is something deeply, deeply wrong about this situation. Ads derive their value from the product being sold, the fact that ads themselves have become the economic underpinning of the entire internet, rather than actual things being sold, should tell you there is a problem.
  - fleddr 4y ago
    Everybody realizes it's wrong. The issue is not a lack of understanding. The issue is the lack of an alternative. People will not pay a penny for the vast majority of the internet, whether they be social networks or just plain websites. They won't donate either or do "micro transactions", not at the scale in which ads currently deliver revenue. So for the vast majority of the internet, no ads = no money. And it ends right there, hobbyist bloggers aside.
    - fumar 4y ago
      I was recently taken aback by how much some of the online major destinations make per site load with ads. It is over $.04 USD. People visit hundreds of pages per day. What consumer will pay over $10 daily to access content that is free with ads?

jjtheblunt 4y ago

> They will continue making billions from ads for decades even if the metaverse play goes nowhere. and no competitors outperform them, or advertising paradigm shift occurs?

Barrin92 4y ago
hard to imagine tbh, they own three of the world's five largest communication platforms.
- skinnymuch 4y ago
  If Messenger is seen as its own platform which I think it can be, that makes 4 of the top 5