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WW3 will likely make a mess of orbit, particularly LEO. However most of the debris that intersects LEO will decay in the order of years to tens of years. Aft

WW3 will likely make a mess of orbit, particularly LEO. However most of the debris that intersects LEO will decay in the order of years to tens of years. After the war (assuming anybody is in any shape to be sending stuff to space in the first place) I think communication satellites in LEO will become the norm (moreso than it already is becoming.) This would be the obvious response to higher orbits being ruined by debris. But such a war would be very bad in many ways, and if this happens I don't think worrying about space will be high on your list of personal priorities.

idealmedtech 4y ago
LEO is too susceptible to interference (of the physical, not radio, kind) for any serious digital communications infrastructure to be placed there. I could see laser-based swarms of comms satellites being used (cubesat size, not starlink size), but I don't think the economics are there quite yet.
- robonerd 4y ago
  It's not clear what exactly you mean by physical interference, but either way I think you're mistaken. Starlink is already proving the viability of launching huge constellations of fairly large (a ton or so) LEO satellites. If you're talking about debris grounding these constellations, that's a problem that resolves itself given enough time, as that debris deorbits naturally. If you're talking about intentional physical interference, aka anti-satellite weapons, the solution to that is having the ability to rapidly replenish the constellation (SpaceX is good at this, and with Starship they'll be even better at it; hundreds of replacement satellites with a single launch.) In the event of a war, a constellation could be kept operational through the brute force of launching more satellites faster than they're destroyed. Of course this will make a huge mess, but that's what wars do. Anyway, they're going forward with this already. The National Defense Space Architecture calls for a very large constellation of LEO communication satellites forming a mesh network using inter-satellite laser links. Starlink is likely dual-use technology and has been intended as such from the start.
  - jltsiren 4y ago
    If you can launch hundreds of useful satellites with a single launch, you can also launch thousands of satellite killers for the same price. A simple short-lived satellite with some sensors, minor maneuvering capabilities, and the ability to turn into a debris cloud on a close pass should be quite effective when deployed in huge numbers. The economies of scale favor destruction if you really don't care about the consequences.
    - bee_rider 4y ago
      I think things like orbital decay and coverage per satellite are the more serious concerns. I mean, LEO is still harder to reach out to than almost anywhere on Earth. The main deterrent to attacking our assets in LEO or on Earth is that such an act would at least have some serious political fallout, and potentially start a war depending on how annoying it is.
    - robonerd 4y ago
      Having thousands of boost-phase interceptors already in LEO actually puts a real damper on anybody trying to do something about it, the economics of the game favor whoever implements such a system first. They will be able to use large rockets to efficiently launch huge numbers of satellites, while the boost-phase interceptors in LEO (constantly replenished via that capability) prevent the enemy from doing the same. Big picture, even if Russia and/or China managed to turn LEO into an impenetrable barrier of debris before the war was lost for them anyway, what would they actually have accomplished? The satellites that previously acted as America's shield would now be debris that would continue to shield America, and America would still have Aegis BMD around the world. Symmetrical war with America is beyond stupid, there is no balance, no fair fight. The purpose of these systems is to ensure that it stays this way, so that nobody tries in the first place.
      - jltsiren 4y ago
        Boost-phase interceptors would be big expensive weapons systems. Because they have only a few minutes to hit before the target deploys the payload, they would have to expend lots of delta-v to guarantee intercept. Deploying such large-scale missile defense systems would be obvious to everyone. By the usual cold war calculus, such attempts would likely trigger a nuclear war. If you attempt to neutralize enemy nuclear deterrent, you are announcing your first strike intentions to everyone. As for why, maybe the reason wouldn't even involve America that much. Maybe China decides to take Taiwan, and to prevent America from interfering, they choose to destroy LEO for everyone. Maybe it would be an acceptable sacrifice for them, as they are more interested in controlling their neighborhood than projecting power to faraway places.
- bluGill 4y ago
  LEO has low latency though, which is important. Communications via satellite in higher orbits suck. Ever dealt with 600ms ping times? I have, you get used to it, but I'm glad to be on ground based internet now, things just feel faster. (and the web is still slow)
samstave 4y ago
I would love to see the following... I think Ill try a short story about: --- In preparation for a global war, a plan was put in place, in accordance with Continuity of Government ; Project Celestial Constellation. A global network of subterranian launch facilities. Massive in scale. Their purpose: to re-spawn orbital assets as required to maintain Total Global Awareness in the event of Planetary Cataclysms. There are four classifications of facility, each with a specific mission to re-establish, maintain and defend the Communications Constellation. One facility is to clear orbital debris. One is to launch replacement communication constellations. and one serves to defend against orbital attacks against these assets. The worst part.... the rebels are attacking the re-spawns as they launch. We have lost nearly 100 this year alone...
xwolfi 4y ago
WWIII will not happen the way you think, it's already happening to some extent. The difference with before is that the EU is largely pacified, the middle east only cares about Allah or not Allah, Russia cant invade its own backyard and is running out of teenagers to butcher. This leaves the US, India and China as the trifecta of dangerous war machines. China I think will prefer to lead internal struggles against common cold variants to "win" victories and softly annoys the two others to keep them at bay - the party doesnt care about the country, only its own survival, India has only an interest in border conflicts with China and doesnt have the ability to succeed at any serious escalation of violence so will always avoid them, and stay unaligned with the US. The US, you included as it s mostly americans proposing ideas of "world war" out of nostalgia for their golden past, has lost enough goodwill to be left alone before it can escalate, but is still trying hard to destabilize China - which means they care less about peace than removing the single party which annoys them to no end. I dont think we'll fall in the american trap, but who knows, the military complex pressure is so high they have to fire all these guns at some points to build new ones. Hope they stay at invading poor countries all around that have no chance to defend themselves.

idealmedtech 4y ago

LEO is too susceptible to interference (of the physical, not radio, kind) for any serious digital communications infrastructure to be placed there. I could see laser-based swarms of comms satellites being used (cubesat size, not starlink size), but I don't think the economics are there quite yet.

robonerd 4y ago
It's not clear what exactly you mean by physical interference, but either way I think you're mistaken. Starlink is already proving the viability of launching huge constellations of fairly large (a ton or so) LEO satellites. If you're talking about debris grounding these constellations, that's a problem that resolves itself given enough time, as that debris deorbits naturally. If you're talking about intentional physical interference, aka anti-satellite weapons, the solution to that is having the ability to rapidly replenish the constellation (SpaceX is good at this, and with Starship they'll be even better at it; hundreds of replacement satellites with a single launch.) In the event of a war, a constellation could be kept operational through the brute force of launching more satellites faster than they're destroyed. Of course this will make a huge mess, but that's what wars do. Anyway, they're going forward with this already. The National Defense Space Architecture calls for a very large constellation of LEO communication satellites forming a mesh network using inter-satellite laser links. Starlink is likely dual-use technology and has been intended as such from the start.
- jltsiren 4y ago
  If you can launch hundreds of useful satellites with a single launch, you can also launch thousands of satellite killers for the same price. A simple short-lived satellite with some sensors, minor maneuvering capabilities, and the ability to turn into a debris cloud on a close pass should be quite effective when deployed in huge numbers. The economies of scale favor destruction if you really don't care about the consequences.
  - bee_rider 4y ago
    I think things like orbital decay and coverage per satellite are the more serious concerns. I mean, LEO is still harder to reach out to than almost anywhere on Earth. The main deterrent to attacking our assets in LEO or on Earth is that such an act would at least have some serious political fallout, and potentially start a war depending on how annoying it is.
  - robonerd 4y ago
    Having thousands of boost-phase interceptors already in LEO actually puts a real damper on anybody trying to do something about it, the economics of the game favor whoever implements such a system first. They will be able to use large rockets to efficiently launch huge numbers of satellites, while the boost-phase interceptors in LEO (constantly replenished via that capability) prevent the enemy from doing the same. Big picture, even if Russia and/or China managed to turn LEO into an impenetrable barrier of debris before the war was lost for them anyway, what would they actually have accomplished? The satellites that previously acted as America's shield would now be debris that would continue to shield America, and America would still have Aegis BMD around the world. Symmetrical war with America is beyond stupid, there is no balance, no fair fight. The purpose of these systems is to ensure that it stays this way, so that nobody tries in the first place.
    - jltsiren 4y ago
      Boost-phase interceptors would be big expensive weapons systems. Because they have only a few minutes to hit before the target deploys the payload, they would have to expend lots of delta-v to guarantee intercept. Deploying such large-scale missile defense systems would be obvious to everyone. By the usual cold war calculus, such attempts would likely trigger a nuclear war. If you attempt to neutralize enemy nuclear deterrent, you are announcing your first strike intentions to everyone. As for why, maybe the reason wouldn't even involve America that much. Maybe China decides to take Taiwan, and to prevent America from interfering, they choose to destroy LEO for everyone. Maybe it would be an acceptable sacrifice for them, as they are more interested in controlling their neighborhood than projecting power to faraway places.
bluGill 4y ago
LEO has low latency though, which is important. Communications via satellite in higher orbits suck. Ever dealt with 600ms ping times? I have, you get used to it, but I'm glad to be on ground based internet now, things just feel faster. (and the web is still slow)

samstave 4y ago

I would love to see the following... I think Ill try a short story about: --- In preparation for a global war, a plan was put in place, in accordance with Continuity of Government ; Project Celestial Constellation. A global network of subterranian launch facilities. Massive in scale. Their purpose: to re-spawn orbital assets as required to maintain Total Global Awareness in the event of Planetary Cataclysms. There are four classifications of facility, each with a specific mission to re-establish, maintain and defend the Communications Constellation. One facility is to clear orbital debris. One is to launch replacement communication constellations. and one serves to defend against orbital attacks against these assets. The worst part.... the rebels are attacking the re-spawns as they launch. We have lost nearly 100 this year alone...

xwolfi 4y ago

WWIII will not happen the way you think, it's already happening to some extent. The difference with before is that the EU is largely pacified, the middle east only cares about Allah or not Allah, Russia cant invade its own backyard and is running out of teenagers to butcher. This leaves the US, India and China as the trifecta of dangerous war machines. China I think will prefer to lead internal struggles against common cold variants to "win" victories and softly annoys the two others to keep them at bay - the party doesnt care about the country, only its own survival, India has only an interest in border conflicts with China and doesnt have the ability to succeed at any serious escalation of violence so will always avoid them, and stay unaligned with the US. The US, you included as it s mostly americans proposing ideas of "world war" out of nostalgia for their golden past, has lost enough goodwill to be left alone before it can escalate, but is still trying hard to destabilize China - which means they care less about peace than removing the single party which annoys them to no end. I dont think we'll fall in the american trap, but who knows, the military complex pressure is so high they have to fire all these guns at some points to build new ones. Hope they stay at invading poor countries all around that have no chance to defend themselves.