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>You're talking about supply when you mention housing shortages Because supply has been depressed since the Great Recession: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series

by scythe 4y ago

>You're talking about supply when you mention housing shortages Because supply has been depressed since the Great Recession: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Meanwhile, population growth over the last two decades has been the lowest since the Great Depression: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_United_States#Historical_Census_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_Uni... >I'd think at some point, an excess amount of illegal migration would have a noticeable impact in some areas. The problem is that housing isn't where the jobs are. That this is reflected in labor prices should be evidence enough. The prevalence of right-to-work and union-busting means that workers want to live in a place with multiple job options, which means that there is demand for cities. Working for the only paper mill in Covington, Virginia isn't such an attractive proposition when you can be fired at will and have to move to a new town.

logicalmonster 4y ago
> Because supply has been depressed since the Great Recession: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST These are very interesting and useful stats, but I'm not sure how it follows that newly created units going up and down at various points in time proves that the supply has been depressed. Can you explain how the supply is being artificially reduced? In some areas like San Francisco I suppose, there's a hesitance by many to want to build denser high-rises and building is a challenge to push through, but I'm not sure what else you might be referring to here. > Meanwhile, population growth over the last two decades has been the lowest since the Great Depression: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_Uni https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_Uni... The growth rate might be lower, but because there's a finite amount of land near cities, the problem might be that this is one area where absolute numbers matter more than rates because it's just physically tougher to build more units in a time period even if more laborers are available. (and this is even assuming that the census figures are anywhere close to accurate, which I'm not so sure about) > there is demand for cities. Of course many people want to live in cities for jobs and other perfectly valid reasons, but I'm not sure how this argues the point that illegal immigration doesn't have some sort of effect on the overall housing market. All other things being equal, a larger supply of people would have some sort of effect on the price, right?

by scythe 4y ago

logicalmonster 4y ago

> Because supply has been depressed since the Great Recession: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST These are very interesting and useful stats, but I'm not sure how it follows that newly created units going up and down at various points in time proves that the supply has been depressed. Can you explain how the supply is being artificially reduced? In some areas like San Francisco I suppose, there's a hesitance by many to want to build denser high-rises and building is a challenge to push through, but I'm not sure what else you might be referring to here. > Meanwhile, population growth over the last two decades has been the lowest since the Great Depression: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_Uni https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_Uni... The growth rate might be lower, but because there's a finite amount of land near cities, the problem might be that this is one area where absolute numbers matter more than rates because it's just physically tougher to build more units in a time period even if more laborers are available. (and this is even assuming that the census figures are anywhere close to accurate, which I'm not so sure about) > there is demand for cities. Of course many people want to live in cities for jobs and other perfectly valid reasons, but I'm not sure how this argues the point that illegal immigration doesn't have some sort of effect on the overall housing market. All other things being equal, a larger supply of people would have some sort of effect on the price, right?