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Why think when you can just have paranoid fever dreams instead. > It's also not a paradox for why many lifetime smokers never get cancer while non-smokers are

by Gatsky 4y ago

Why think when you can just have paranoid fever dreams instead. > It's also not a paradox for why many lifetime smokers never get cancer while non-smokers are now more commonly the ones with lung cancer. This is simply wrong.

incomingpain 4y ago
>Why think when you can just have paranoid fever dreams instead. Your insults toward me win. I have been flagged on my post and unable to post on HN. If I can reply again I will. >This is simply wrong. I'm here for conversation. I'm nobody from nobodyville; dont have cancer and never smoked. If you have points to make like others are doing, then hell ya. Telling me I'm wrong without explaining how im dumb doesn't really help me be less dumb. So quick breakdown. In the 1990s when we had peak lung cancer. It was something like 3% of lung cancer folks were non-smokers. 97% is quite significant to say smoking = lung cancer. In 2006-2010 it rose to about 20% were non-smokers or at least didn't admit to smoking or having an occupational reason. General thought was just exposure in history and forgot. Perhaps second hand smoke? Nobody yet saw any real data suggesting any problem with this. Right before covid, it was over 50% were non-smokers and no occupational reasons. There was big research in Canada to evaluate radon but that came up false. Cancer clusters would seem like a radon relation but evidently not. There is a positive correlation between diesel exhaust but certainly not explanatory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust A known bigger issue is causing cancer and we need to address this. Not continue pretending like it's just smokers or old people. I guess that's the plan though? Having figured out this flag worthy controversial reason I do understand why they make this decision. It is and isn't a conspiracy. They are choosing probably the right decision. I'll just leave these here because I can't reply to anyone else. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34483925/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34483925/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5835698/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5835698/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32971268/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32971268/ Hell ya Mexico and China!
- edmundsauto 4y ago
  A couple of data points. It looks like 20% is only in women - in men, it's 9%. Second, the ratio of smokers:nonsmokers can be at least partially explained by the number of smokers decreasing. Third, it's not clear whether this is a real change, or if it's a data anomaly. Personally, I would be very careful about the confidence with which I express this perspective. It might be true, but it's not at all clear that it is, so it's not clear there is a mystery. “It is well-documented that approximately 20% of lung cancer cases that occur in women in the U.S. and 9% of cases in men, are diagnosed in never-smokers,” "To a great extent, this is a function of straightforward math... Fewer people smoke today than in previous decades... because there are fewer smokers in the population, out of every 100 lung cancer patients, fewer will therefore be smokers. And that means more of them will be never-smokers." "There are also hints that the absolute incidence of lung cancer in never-smokers has been rising, said oncologist John Heymach of MD Anderson Cancer Center. Some data say it has, but other data say no. The stumbling block is that old datasets often don’t indicate a lung cancer patient’s smoking status, Heymach said, making it impossible to calculate what percent of never-smokers in past decades developed lung cancer." https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/26/growing-share-of-lung-cancer-turning-up-in-never-smokers/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20well%2Ddocumented%20that,of%20the%20American%20Cancer%20Society https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/26/growing-share-of-lung-ca....
  - incomingpain 4y ago
    I appreciate the response. I probably won't be able to reply, but I guess i'll be wasting my time typing a response. Sorry if I dont put as much effort in; sourcing etc. >A couple of data points. It looks like 20% is only in women - in men, it's 9%. Second, the ratio of smokers:nonsmokers can be at least partially explained by the number of smokers decreasing. Third, it's not clear whether this is a real change, or if it's a data anomaly. This is something I didn't fully understand and had to research. Why does it disproportionately affecting black people and women more? Nobody really explains it but the answer is known. Yes absolutely, as # of smokers decreases we would expect it to increase. Totally, but the correlation between decrease in tobacco usage and increase in lung cancer inverted. I think that's why when we saw an increase in 2006ish nobody responded like they have been responding in the last 5 or so years. >Personally, I would be very careful about the confidence with which I express this perspective. It might be true, but it's not at all clear that it is, so it's not clear there is a mystery. I hear your threat and yes I'm flagged and such. >“It is well-documented that approximately 20% of lung cancer cases that occur in women in the U.S. and 9% of cases in men, are diagnosed in never-smokers,” I believe what you are referencing is: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2764546/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2764546/ This study was done in 2006 publishing in 2007. Yes absolutely. 20% vs 9% was certainly a thing in around this time. Those numbers are US centric. Your followup point that fewer smokers exist and therefore more proportion would be expected to trend upwards no doubt and it did. >"To a great extent, this is a function of straightforward math... Fewer people smoke today than in previous decades... because there are fewer smokers in the population, out of every 100 lung cancer patients, fewer will therefore be smokers. And that means more of them will be never-smokers." This is totally valid and so is diesel exhaust as others mentioned. VW diesel scandal was also in this period as a painful confounder but at the same time I actually discount VW being of significant factor because how many people really drove TDIs? >A 2017 study of 12,103 lung cancer patients in three representative U.S. hospitals found that never-smokers were 8% of the total from 1990 to 1995 but 14.9% from 2011 to 2013. The authors ruled out statistical anomalies and concluded that “the actual incidence of lung cancer in never smokers is increasing.” Another study that same year, of 2,170 patients in the U.K., found an even larger increase: The proportion of lung cancer patients who were never-smokers rose from 13% in 2008 to 28% in 2014. From your link ^^^ About the time of that 2017 study from your article was when oncologists started freaking out by the shift in the new data. It has been getting worse each year. It's way too fast to be just a shift in statistics. It's also not a mystery neither. Obviously they spent the last ~5 years figuring it out.

by Gatsky 4y ago

incomingpain 4y ago

>Why think when you can just have paranoid fever dreams instead. Your insults toward me win. I have been flagged on my post and unable to post on HN. If I can reply again I will. >This is simply wrong. I'm here for conversation. I'm nobody from nobodyville; dont have cancer and never smoked. If you have points to make like others are doing, then hell ya. Telling me I'm wrong without explaining how im dumb doesn't really help me be less dumb. So quick breakdown. In the 1990s when we had peak lung cancer. It was something like 3% of lung cancer folks were non-smokers. 97% is quite significant to say smoking = lung cancer. In 2006-2010 it rose to about 20% were non-smokers or at least didn't admit to smoking or having an occupational reason. General thought was just exposure in history and forgot. Perhaps second hand smoke? Nobody yet saw any real data suggesting any problem with this. Right before covid, it was over 50% were non-smokers and no occupational reasons. There was big research in Canada to evaluate radon but that came up false. Cancer clusters would seem like a radon relation but evidently not. There is a positive correlation between diesel exhaust but certainly not explanatory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust A known bigger issue is causing cancer and we need to address this. Not continue pretending like it's just smokers or old people. I guess that's the plan though? Having figured out this flag worthy controversial reason I do understand why they make this decision. It is and isn't a conspiracy. They are choosing probably the right decision. I'll just leave these here because I can't reply to anyone else. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34483925/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34483925/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5835698/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5835698/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32971268/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32971268/ Hell ya Mexico and China!

edmundsauto 4y ago
A couple of data points. It looks like 20% is only in women - in men, it's 9%. Second, the ratio of smokers:nonsmokers can be at least partially explained by the number of smokers decreasing. Third, it's not clear whether this is a real change, or if it's a data anomaly. Personally, I would be very careful about the confidence with which I express this perspective. It might be true, but it's not at all clear that it is, so it's not clear there is a mystery. “It is well-documented that approximately 20% of lung cancer cases that occur in women in the U.S. and 9% of cases in men, are diagnosed in never-smokers,” "To a great extent, this is a function of straightforward math... Fewer people smoke today than in previous decades... because there are fewer smokers in the population, out of every 100 lung cancer patients, fewer will therefore be smokers. And that means more of them will be never-smokers." "There are also hints that the absolute incidence of lung cancer in never-smokers has been rising, said oncologist John Heymach of MD Anderson Cancer Center. Some data say it has, but other data say no. The stumbling block is that old datasets often don’t indicate a lung cancer patient’s smoking status, Heymach said, making it impossible to calculate what percent of never-smokers in past decades developed lung cancer." https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/26/growing-share-of-lung-cancer-turning-up-in-never-smokers/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20well%2Ddocumented%20that,of%20the%20American%20Cancer%20Society https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/26/growing-share-of-lung-ca....
- incomingpain 4y ago
  I appreciate the response. I probably won't be able to reply, but I guess i'll be wasting my time typing a response. Sorry if I dont put as much effort in; sourcing etc. >A couple of data points. It looks like 20% is only in women - in men, it's 9%. Second, the ratio of smokers:nonsmokers can be at least partially explained by the number of smokers decreasing. Third, it's not clear whether this is a real change, or if it's a data anomaly. This is something I didn't fully understand and had to research. Why does it disproportionately affecting black people and women more? Nobody really explains it but the answer is known. Yes absolutely, as # of smokers decreases we would expect it to increase. Totally, but the correlation between decrease in tobacco usage and increase in lung cancer inverted. I think that's why when we saw an increase in 2006ish nobody responded like they have been responding in the last 5 or so years. >Personally, I would be very careful about the confidence with which I express this perspective. It might be true, but it's not at all clear that it is, so it's not clear there is a mystery. I hear your threat and yes I'm flagged and such. >“It is well-documented that approximately 20% of lung cancer cases that occur in women in the U.S. and 9% of cases in men, are diagnosed in never-smokers,” I believe what you are referencing is: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2764546/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2764546/ This study was done in 2006 publishing in 2007. Yes absolutely. 20% vs 9% was certainly a thing in around this time. Those numbers are US centric. Your followup point that fewer smokers exist and therefore more proportion would be expected to trend upwards no doubt and it did. >"To a great extent, this is a function of straightforward math... Fewer people smoke today than in previous decades... because there are fewer smokers in the population, out of every 100 lung cancer patients, fewer will therefore be smokers. And that means more of them will be never-smokers." This is totally valid and so is diesel exhaust as others mentioned. VW diesel scandal was also in this period as a painful confounder but at the same time I actually discount VW being of significant factor because how many people really drove TDIs? >A 2017 study of 12,103 lung cancer patients in three representative U.S. hospitals found that never-smokers were 8% of the total from 1990 to 1995 but 14.9% from 2011 to 2013. The authors ruled out statistical anomalies and concluded that “the actual incidence of lung cancer in never smokers is increasing.” Another study that same year, of 2,170 patients in the U.K., found an even larger increase: The proportion of lung cancer patients who were never-smokers rose from 13% in 2008 to 28% in 2014. From your link ^^^ About the time of that 2017 study from your article was when oncologists started freaking out by the shift in the new data. It has been getting worse each year. It's way too fast to be just a shift in statistics. It's also not a mystery neither. Obviously they spent the last ~5 years figuring it out.