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> ...due to the risk of oil embargo ... > Nothing of this is true anymore, and it makes for a huge difference. Technically, I suppose the risk now is gas embar

> ...due to the risk of oil embargo ... > Nothing of this is true anymore, and it makes for a huge difference. Technically, I suppose the risk now is gas embargo. Also, I'm pretty sure GDP per capita is higher today than 50 years ago, even if they have not had the same growth as other countries. > In 2010 (just before Fukushima) it could be so. Maybe that depends on what sources you are exposed to. Those feeds that hit me are more positive now than in 2010, even if there was a setback after 2011. Just a few days ago, Japan decided to restart nuclear plants: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/27/japans-kishida-pledges-to-restart-idled-nuclear-power-plants https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/27/japans-kishida-p... > This is possible, however the probability of a major blunder à la TMI or Chernobyl implying wind turbines is very low. Seen through my lenses, TMI and Fukushima were non-events that were blown out of proportion by a mislead and scared populace. Chernobyl was a real incident, but still nearly insignificant compared to deaths from coal based power plants every year. For every radiation related death from these incidents, I would guess that 1000-1000000 died from the irrational fear that was generated, as it lead to increased use of coal based power. If somehow the public could be made to understand that, they may actually learn to appreciate the benefits of nuclear power. "Renewables" on the other hand, would not get a bad rep from an accident like that. Instead, if there is a period of high enery prices and maybe at some point even brownouts caused by uncontrolled variability of availability, I think more and more people are likely to feel mislead by the "renewable" proponents, and permanently lose trust in them. At that point, I worry that an increasing number of people will start to demand their coal plants back. > dangerous waste Nuclear waste ranges from 30 year old medical lab gloves to freshly spent fuel. Scary pictures like below tend to be from almost-harmless low grade waste: https://static.dw.com/image/17629832_401.jpg https://static.dw.com/image/17629832_401.jpg The global amount of high grade wast, primarily spent fuel, is miniscule. Properly educating the public of the dangers (and lack thereof) of such fuels unfortunately requires some mathematical and science understanding (half-lives, exponential declines, isotopes). But when I do the math, I don't see any kinds of existential dangers after 300-500 years. Any relatively stable deep mine is suitable to store the used fuel. There are a few isotopes that are slightly more radioactive than background radition over a longer timeframe, but that's a tiny risk compared to naturally occuring radon gas. And if you are at all concerned about global warming, the risks from storage are infintisimal by comparison. At worst, I think the expected harm from nuclear plants can be compared to the harm being done by windmills to natural wildlife (birds, mainly). > This is debatable, as building reactors become more and more slow and expensive, even in zones where the local power wants it and can enforce its will (China) Prices per kwh in China still seem quite reasonable. In general, as technologies mature, prices SHOULD come down over time. When that doesn't happer, there tends to be external factors. > Moreover each buck spent for this isn't available for a 'renewable' project. Maybe, or maybe not. So far, France has been far more successful in phasing out fossil fuels than Germany. For a generation, their emissions have been much lower than Germany's. I don't know exactly which country has had the greatest expenses in doing so (including energy price, subsidies, direct government investments, etc), but I would not be surprised if the total investments by France have been lower. My bet is that France will continue to be performing better than Germany well in to the 2030's, or perhaps further. When and if Germany finally catches up, it will take another 30-50 years of low greenhouse gas emissions to "catch up" to France's performance, in terms of aggregate emissions. To add insult to injury, the German energy model has created a massive reliance on Putin's Russia for their natural gas. Russia has already started to cut off deliveries to countries not complying with their demands. If Germany is going to wean themselves off Russian energy, it will require pretty massive investments in all of the LNG value chain. And in doing so, they will replace dependency on Russia with dependency on autocratic monarchies in the Middle East. > Moreover each buck spent for this isn't available for a 'renewable' project. (repeated quote) So, instead of making this an either/or, all or nothing experiment, I claim that a 50/50 split (or therearound) of those investments is rational. Nuclear for most of the base load, at least until all coal is gone. As much renewable energy as we are able to build without reaching instability in the supply. And some combination of natural gas, hydrogen and storage to even out the bumps. All should be required and incentivised to focus on keeping costs down. Special interest groups should be prevented from causing too many price increases.

natmaka 4y ago
>> France's capacity to build nuclear reactors (in the past and now) > I'm pretty sure GDP per capita is higher today than 50 years ago They do, but money doesn't replace industrial know-how and tools. France massively relocated various (especially heavy) industries, starting in the 1980's. > Just a few days ago, Japan decided to restart nuclear plants: > https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/27/japans-kishida-p https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/27/japans-kishida-p... This is a pledge, about only a few ones, after quite a delay (since 2011), formulated because this nation cannot do otherwise (lack of other types of sources, as it has to phase-out a huge amount of coal-burning plants and lacks on renewables. Moreover this politician "is not considering any new facilities". Before Fukushima nuclear produced 30% of Japan's electricy, and plans were to let this grow to 40%... Moreover even restarting some plants is not necessarily easy, accepted by the population, and legal: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220531_12/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220531_12/ > TMI and Fukushima were non-events that were blown out of proportion by a mislead and scared populace For all those accidents there is no consensus about the long-term impact on health and the environment. Chernobyl's victims scientific evaluations range from "a few hundred" to "nearly 1 million", with many intermediate values (4000, 19000, 60000...) TMI: I never could find any technical explanation for the miracle (the meltdown was partial, not complete). At Fukushima cleaning-up (its efficiency is disputed) and compensations amount to hundreds of billions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_disaster_cleanup#Costs_of_the_cleanup_operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_disaster_cleanup#Cos... > Chernobyl was a real incident, but still nearly insignificant compared to deaths from coal Nobody here advocates coal! > For every radiation related death from these incidents, I would guess that 1000-1000000 died from the irrational fear that was generated, as it lead to increased use of coal based power. Maybe, albeit in at least some cases preferring some renewable source was possible but neglected. > If somehow the public could be made to understand that Convincing the public is a burden for the nuclear industry, and it tries hard. > "Renewables" on the other hand, would not get a bad rep from an accident like that How exactly could they trigger similar accidents: dangerous particles (radionucleides) floating in wind and rain, polluting vast amount of land (in some places for decades)...? > maybe at some point even brownouts caused by uncontrolled variability of availability Maybe, indeed, if the ways to alleviate variability aren't sufficient. > Nuclear waste ranges > I don't see any kinds of existential dangers after 300-500 years No, for example if this waste reaches a water table... Moreover this is also tied to ethic standpoint: do we have the right to let such bad stuff to future generations (and yes, this also applies to fossil fuels)? > Any relatively stable deep mine is suitable to store the used fuel. That's some touted for Asse II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asse_II_mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asse_II_mine > if you are at all concerned about global warming, the risks from storage are infintisimal by comparison. Renewable sources don't produce such dangerous waste. > the expected harm from nuclear plants can be compared to the harm being done by windmills to natural wildlife (birds, mainly). This is a difficult exercise. In many nations wind turbines proponents (many 'greens') don't neglect this, many jurisdictions enforce more and more strict rules (albeit they sometimes are neglected in order to accelerate deployment) and pertinent groups suggestions are considered https://abcbirds.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Bird-Smart-Wind-Energy-Fact-Sheet.pdf https://abcbirds.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Bird-Smart-W... > Prices per kwh in China still seem quite reasonable Auditing is very difficult. > as technologies mature, prices SHOULD come down over time. When that doesn't happer, there tends to be external factors. Yes, multiple factors. One being that what was deemed adequate safety-wise isn't anymore, leading to new costs. >> Moreover each buck spent for this isn't available for a 'renewable' project. > So far, France has been far more successful in phasing out fossil fuels than Germany It was true until the last nuclear reactor was built in France, in 1999 ('Civaux-2' reactor). Afterwards France is trying hard to obtain a reactor since 2007, while Germany deploys renewables. By far the main reason France enhances its emissions since 1999 is its renewables deployment. Nuclear didn't further reduce emissions (no new reactor => no new decarbonating nuclear equipment). > My bet is that France will continue to be performing better than Germany well in to the 2030's Thanks to nuclear? This is impossible, as France doesn't hope to have more than 3 new reactors by 2040. France may keep up because it also deploys renewables, but using only nuclear will set it way back. > aggregate emissions Yes, this is a major point! Germany's quick phasing-out of existing reactors done without even considering reducing its consumption was a terrible decision, however renewables aren't 'guilty' of this. > the German energy model has created a massive reliance on Putin's Russia for their natural gas Please allow me to insist: the main France's uranium provider is Kazakhstan, which obeys to Putin, and this side of the challenge exists even for the US: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-utilities-push-white-house-not-sanction-russian-uranium-2022-03-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-utiliti... > a 50/50 split (or therearound) of those investments is rational. Nuclear for most of the base load, at least until all coal is gone. As much renewable energy as we are able to build without reaching instability in the supply. And some combination of natural gas, hydrogen and storage to even out the bumps. Calculating the amount of reactors it implies then considering the global capacity to build them is taunting. Given the result I doubt simply accepting way lower safety standards will fix the problem, and as noted the NIMBY effect will soar. Then after any non-trivial incident all the project will be thrown out of the window. Investors know about this, therefore such a project may not even be able start. > All should be required and incentivised to focus on keeping costs down. Most incentives have at best mediocre effects. In France subsidies were lampooned by the Court of Audit for failing to boost national industrial capacity. > Special interest groups should be prevented from causing too many price increases. I don't know of any sure way to do so devoid of any serious risk.

natmaka 4y ago

>> France's capacity to build nuclear reactors (in the past and now) > I'm pretty sure GDP per capita is higher today than 50 years ago They do, but money doesn't replace industrial know-how and tools. France massively relocated various (especially heavy) industries, starting in the 1980's. > Just a few days ago, Japan decided to restart nuclear plants: > https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/27/japans-kishida-p https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/27/japans-kishida-p... This is a pledge, about only a few ones, after quite a delay (since 2011), formulated because this nation cannot do otherwise (lack of other types of sources, as it has to phase-out a huge amount of coal-burning plants and lacks on renewables. Moreover this politician "is not considering any new facilities". Before Fukushima nuclear produced 30% of Japan's electricy, and plans were to let this grow to 40%... Moreover even restarting some plants is not necessarily easy, accepted by the population, and legal: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220531_12/ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220531_12/ > TMI and Fukushima were non-events that were blown out of proportion by a mislead and scared populace For all those accidents there is no consensus about the long-term impact on health and the environment. Chernobyl's victims scientific evaluations range from "a few hundred" to "nearly 1 million", with many intermediate values (4000, 19000, 60000...) TMI: I never could find any technical explanation for the miracle (the meltdown was partial, not complete). At Fukushima cleaning-up (its efficiency is disputed) and compensations amount to hundreds of billions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_disaster_cleanup#Costs_of_the_cleanup_operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_disaster_cleanup#Cos... > Chernobyl was a real incident, but still nearly insignificant compared to deaths from coal Nobody here advocates coal! > For every radiation related death from these incidents, I would guess that 1000-1000000 died from the irrational fear that was generated, as it lead to increased use of coal based power. Maybe, albeit in at least some cases preferring some renewable source was possible but neglected. > If somehow the public could be made to understand that Convincing the public is a burden for the nuclear industry, and it tries hard. > "Renewables" on the other hand, would not get a bad rep from an accident like that How exactly could they trigger similar accidents: dangerous particles (radionucleides) floating in wind and rain, polluting vast amount of land (in some places for decades)...? > maybe at some point even brownouts caused by uncontrolled variability of availability Maybe, indeed, if the ways to alleviate variability aren't sufficient. > Nuclear waste ranges > I don't see any kinds of existential dangers after 300-500 years No, for example if this waste reaches a water table... Moreover this is also tied to ethic standpoint: do we have the right to let such bad stuff to future generations (and yes, this also applies to fossil fuels)? > Any relatively stable deep mine is suitable to store the used fuel. That's some touted for Asse II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asse_II_mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asse_II_mine > if you are at all concerned about global warming, the risks from storage are infintisimal by comparison. Renewable sources don't produce such dangerous waste. > the expected harm from nuclear plants can be compared to the harm being done by windmills to natural wildlife (birds, mainly). This is a difficult exercise. In many nations wind turbines proponents (many 'greens') don't neglect this, many jurisdictions enforce more and more strict rules (albeit they sometimes are neglected in order to accelerate deployment) and pertinent groups suggestions are considered https://abcbirds.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Bird-Smart-Wind-Energy-Fact-Sheet.pdf https://abcbirds.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Bird-Smart-W... > Prices per kwh in China still seem quite reasonable Auditing is very difficult. > as technologies mature, prices SHOULD come down over time. When that doesn't happer, there tends to be external factors. Yes, multiple factors. One being that what was deemed adequate safety-wise isn't anymore, leading to new costs. >> Moreover each buck spent for this isn't available for a 'renewable' project. > So far, France has been far more successful in phasing out fossil fuels than Germany It was true until the last nuclear reactor was built in France, in 1999 ('Civaux-2' reactor). Afterwards France is trying hard to obtain a reactor since 2007, while Germany deploys renewables. By far the main reason France enhances its emissions since 1999 is its renewables deployment. Nuclear didn't further reduce emissions (no new reactor => no new decarbonating nuclear equipment). > My bet is that France will continue to be performing better than Germany well in to the 2030's Thanks to nuclear? This is impossible, as France doesn't hope to have more than 3 new reactors by 2040. France may keep up because it also deploys renewables, but using only nuclear will set it way back. > aggregate emissions Yes, this is a major point! Germany's quick phasing-out of existing reactors done without even considering reducing its consumption was a terrible decision, however renewables aren't 'guilty' of this. > the German energy model has created a massive reliance on Putin's Russia for their natural gas Please allow me to insist: the main France's uranium provider is Kazakhstan, which obeys to Putin, and this side of the challenge exists even for the US: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-utilities-push-white-house-not-sanction-russian-uranium-2022-03-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-utiliti... > a 50/50 split (or therearound) of those investments is rational. Nuclear for most of the base load, at least until all coal is gone. As much renewable energy as we are able to build without reaching instability in the supply. And some combination of natural gas, hydrogen and storage to even out the bumps. Calculating the amount of reactors it implies then considering the global capacity to build them is taunting. Given the result I doubt simply accepting way lower safety standards will fix the problem, and as noted the NIMBY effect will soar. Then after any non-trivial incident all the project will be thrown out of the window. Investors know about this, therefore such a project may not even be able start. > All should be required and incentivised to focus on keeping costs down. Most incentives have at best mediocre effects. In France subsidies were lampooned by the Court of Audit for failing to boost national industrial capacity. > Special interest groups should be prevented from causing too many price increases. I don't know of any sure way to do so devoid of any serious risk.