In some ways it's similar to the Monty Hall problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem The intr

In some ways it's similar to the Monty Hall problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem The introduction of a second "stage" based on your action changes things in a non-obvious way. Your first action is less impactful than your second one, regardless of what you did.