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Housing cannot fall without unemployment. So far the economy has lost workers not jobs. Unemployment is 3.6 % and going down. Real min wage is 22$. In addition
by streetcat1 4y ago
Housing cannot fall without unemployment. So far the economy has lost workers not jobs. Unemployment is 3.6 % and going down. Real min wage is 22$.
In addition, there is a big wave of onshoring coming into the US due to supply chain issues.
Housing price will not fall due to 25% inventory levels from 2008. Also High mortgage locks sellers into their current homes. I predict another 20% rise in house prices (At least nominal rise).
- shostack 4y agoSounds like the Fed expects unemployment to rise and are ok with it if it means cooling off rate of inflation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-10/williams-says-fed-to-curb-inflation-without-raising-unemployment https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-10/williams-...
- streetcat1 4y agoHow, Where are they are going to find the employees? Remember that half of the baby boomer retired. I think that the US is facing 20 years of tight label market. Especially if globalization is on its way out.
- adam_arthur 4y agoLook at unemployment pre and post GFC. To save you the time, 4% to 10% in a matter of months. Unemployment is almost always lowest prior to a recession. It's exactly an overheated labor market that drives the Fed to tighten and induce a recession to cool off inflation. Inflation cannot be defeated without driving unemployment up, when labor market is this tight. Wages rising at 6%+ is not conducive to 2% inflation
- coliveira 4y agoDon't worry: the job of the Fed is exactly to increase unemployment! This is how they manage to create recessions in order to keep monetary policy under control.