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I'll be graduating and entering the job market in two years--does this mean I will be finding a job in the middle of a recession? I know all economics is specul

I'll be graduating and entering the job market in two years--does this mean I will be finding a job in the middle of a recession? I know all economics is speculative, but I'm to get a realistic sense of what all this means. On the one hand, I've seen the YC memo which writes as though a big crash is obviously on the horizon, but in daily life, it seems like the economy is still going strong, wages are higher across the board (from tech internships to my parent's retail job). I'm not hearing anyone outside of HN/tech talking about any recession. Is this downturn in CS/tech jobs a likely outcome or just speculation? Is there anything I should do/expect different to prepare?

VirusNewbie 4y ago
recessions usually affect the top tier and the bottom tier the most. Bottom tier will have trouble finding a job, and very top tier talent might have to settle for making 500k instead of 700k. The folks in the middle...well, mostly it doesn't affect them much. Literally a huge swathe of the tech community could just choose to ignore it and they'd go about their business. Sure you could get laid off but that happens in good times too, it's just not as talked about. If your chances of getting laid off go from 3% to 6%, you don't really live your life any differently. Good to be aware it can happen, but mostly just go about your day.
devoutsalsa 4y ago
Focus on being employable & excellent by having real accomplishments, humility, and great attitude. No matter how many people there are looking for work, there's always a shortage of people w/ these traits.
ModernMech 4y ago
> I'll be graduating and entering the job market in two years--does this mean I will be finding a job in the middle of a recession? I graduated college in 2008. By 2010 the job market was fine.
- formerkrogemp 4y ago
  > I graduated college in 2008. By 2010 the job market was fine. I'm assuming that you mean in programming. I don't remember the job market being "fine" for many other industries.
  - ModernMech 4y ago
    Yes, I mean the job market as it would concern individuals here on HN specifically interested in tech/programming.
spaceprison 4y ago
Don't sweat it. This pain will be at the top and by the more senior folks. I got into the business in 02 at a startup. Moral was low, lots of folks had seen their options become worthless and extreme growth had stopped. Once the frat party was over, just as the post said, the company had to learn how to live off the land. So while it wasn't easy doing more with less, working with smart people that were forced to be ingenuitive was invaluable. The other positive with starting out in a rough patch is you'll get to learn what to be skeptical of during those quartly earnings calls (there are only so many times EBITDA adjusted ARPU can be said before you start to wonder why there's little talk about profit) I guess what I'm saying is, you're going to be OK, the bits still need to flow, servers will still need to scale and software won't write itself.
lamontcg 4y ago
If you're entering the job market in two years, that is going to be closer to when the recovery is likely to have started. Your first job might not have as large of a salary as you'd like. You should be prepared to job hop a bit and not get too attached. Stay flexible for a bit and don't make life plans that require stability.

VirusNewbie 4y ago

recessions usually affect the top tier and the bottom tier the most. Bottom tier will have trouble finding a job, and very top tier talent might have to settle for making 500k instead of 700k. The folks in the middle...well, mostly it doesn't affect them much. Literally a huge swathe of the tech community could just choose to ignore it and they'd go about their business. Sure you could get laid off but that happens in good times too, it's just not as talked about. If your chances of getting laid off go from 3% to 6%, you don't really live your life any differently. Good to be aware it can happen, but mostly just go about your day.

devoutsalsa 4y ago

Focus on being employable & excellent by having real accomplishments, humility, and great attitude. No matter how many people there are looking for work, there's always a shortage of people w/ these traits.

ModernMech 4y ago

> I'll be graduating and entering the job market in two years--does this mean I will be finding a job in the middle of a recession? I graduated college in 2008. By 2010 the job market was fine.

formerkrogemp 4y ago
> I graduated college in 2008. By 2010 the job market was fine. I'm assuming that you mean in programming. I don't remember the job market being "fine" for many other industries.
- ModernMech 4y ago
  Yes, I mean the job market as it would concern individuals here on HN specifically interested in tech/programming.

spaceprison 4y ago

Don't sweat it. This pain will be at the top and by the more senior folks. I got into the business in 02 at a startup. Moral was low, lots of folks had seen their options become worthless and extreme growth had stopped. Once the frat party was over, just as the post said, the company had to learn how to live off the land. So while it wasn't easy doing more with less, working with smart people that were forced to be ingenuitive was invaluable. The other positive with starting out in a rough patch is you'll get to learn what to be skeptical of during those quartly earnings calls (there are only so many times EBITDA adjusted ARPU can be said before you start to wonder why there's little talk about profit) I guess what I'm saying is, you're going to be OK, the bits still need to flow, servers will still need to scale and software won't write itself.

lamontcg 4y ago

If you're entering the job market in two years, that is going to be closer to when the recovery is likely to have started. Your first job might not have as large of a salary as you'd like. You should be prepared to job hop a bit and not get too attached. Stay flexible for a bit and don't make life plans that require stability.