4 ms·

I ask this genuinely and non-rhetorically: are they wrong? Everything seems to say that we are running out of time to avert climate disaster, and they're the on

by dejawu 4y ago

I ask this genuinely and non-rhetorically: are they wrong? Everything seems to say that we are running out of time to avert climate disaster, and they're the ones who will have to live with the consequences if we fail.

core-utility 4y ago
How many times can we be running out of time before it's reasonable to be doubtful of the message? I think there have been at least 4 "end of the world" scenarios in my rather short lifetime and there's always a new proposed date after each one is proven false.
- sodality2 4y ago
  "Out of time to avert climate disaster" means beyond the point of no return where no reasonable act can reverse it. It does not mean we are suffering from extreme consequences currently..
  - core-utility 4y ago
    I still stand by my point.
    - sodality2 4y ago
      "How many times can we be running out of time before it's reasonable to be doubtful of the message? I think there have been at least 4 "end of the world" scenarios in my rather short lifetime and there's always a new proposed date after each one is proven false." It can be compared to, "How many times can we change the solar system model before it's reasonable to be doubtful of the message? I think there have been at least 4 changes in what we believe to be the center of our universe in my rather short lifetime and there's always a new proposed center after each one is proven false." It is a science. It is scientifically proven that the damage we have done to our climate is going to eventually cause very bad consequences. The only question is when, which is very difficult to pin down with constantly changing conditions. It's like trying to identify when the next tornado will hit. You don't know precisely when, you might have some false positives, but you know it will happen. You don't get to say, "Well this is the fifth time the meteorologist has told me to evacuate, I have reason to believe this is politically motivated".
  - ryandrake 4y ago
    I think what parent is getting at is: Year after year, we're always only a few years away from Climate Change being irreversible. The constant "We're almost beyond the point of no return, but not quite" declarations remind me of the Truck Almost Hits A Pole meme[1]. Or like preachers predicting "Jesus's return is just around the corner" every year for the last 2000 years. At some point message fatigue sets in and you start tuning it out. I know it's impossible to predict exactly when that point is, but why is it always "a few years away"? 1: https://imgur.com/r/gifs/kuplW0m https://imgur.com/r/gifs/kuplW0m
    - guerrilla 4y ago
      It's not a few years away, you're just confounding different messages. It's past the point of no return for 1C and for getting extreme weather. NOW what's not that far away is 1.5C.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - misslibby 4y ago
    There were many claims that we would be suffering from extreme consequences by now already, zero of which have materialized. That is not to say that ALL predictions are necessarily wrong, but enough to be wary of the fear mongering. Especially since dramatic predictions probably yield more government money.
    - wing-_-nuts 4y ago
      >zero of which have materialized. Uh, really? There are any number of natural disasters that have been made many times worse by climate change, but ignorance is bliss I guess...
- elil17 4y ago
  If you’re thinking of CFCs, we banned CFCs to solve the problem. If you’re thinking of nukes, we had New START, SALT, NPT, etc. and a shit ton of activism which significantly reduced the threat. If you’re thinking of past claims that we’re “past the point of no return” for climate change, those claims were correct. We passed the point of no return for avoiding extreme weather due to climate change. Then we passed the point of no return for 1C of warming. Now we are nearing the point of no return for 1.5C of warming. Things are getting worse for the climate, which is why people keep saying that things are getting worse for the climate. That said, apathy is counterproductive. We need hopeful children and adults to drive political and technological change. Therapy or other tools for reducing anxiety (e.g. exercise) could help people be hopeful.
  - misslibby 4y ago
    Kids should learn something tangible and useful, that could help them develop tools to meet the challenges of the future. Instead they are just constantly being told that they are doomed and in how many ways they could help by eschew consuming things and not having kids themselves.
- haxiomic 4y ago
  We’re perfectly inline with exxons predictions of warming made in the 80s [0]. From the science, the predictions are unwavering, clear and project difficult times for the latter 21st century. It’s a constant that the news will report doom whenever it can, but the fundamental science never changes. [0] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyKnDRfUYAAp4Nt.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyKnDRfUYAAp4Nt.jpg
renewiltord 4y ago
Even the top estimates have less than a hundred million dead, mostly in developing nations, but kids in Houston have anxiety over that? Sounds unlikely. Surely sounds even more unlikely that kids living with MAD over their heads had less anxiety.
elil17 4y ago
They really aren’t. It took global political action to avert several past global disasters (CFCs and nuclear weapons for example - although we aren’t totally in the clear on that one yet). Climate change is simply harder because oil is more useful than spray cans and nukes.
Retric 4y ago
Climate change will kill more people than serial killers or sharks that people also get seriously afraid off. But it’s not going to cause the kind of society ending harm that people often fear. It’s hard to communicate bad stuff can be bad without it being WWIII kinds of bad. Imagine time traveling before the pandemic to your younger self in say late 2018 and describing what’s going to happen in detail, in such a way that your younger self feels the same way about it as you do right now.
BurningFrog 4y ago
There is certainly nothing in the IPCC reports suggesting a disaster anywhere close to level. It will be a serious problem that will take big efforts to solve, but on a civilizational level, it will be much more of an inconvenience than a disaster. >"Everything seems to say..." What I just wrote above doesn't go viral or generate millions of clicks. For that you need predictions of epic disaster. So epic disaster stories are what go viral, show up everywhere, makes it easy to conclude that "everything seems to say" that.
mhh__ 4y ago
It won't be like a global holocaust but it will cause massive economic and social disruption mostly in places that didn't cause it.

by dejawu 4y ago

core-utility 4y ago

How many times can we be running out of time before it's reasonable to be doubtful of the message? I think there have been at least 4 "end of the world" scenarios in my rather short lifetime and there's always a new proposed date after each one is proven false.

sodality2 4y ago
"Out of time to avert climate disaster" means beyond the point of no return where no reasonable act can reverse it. It does not mean we are suffering from extreme consequences currently..
- core-utility 4y ago
  I still stand by my point.
  - sodality2 4y ago
    "How many times can we be running out of time before it's reasonable to be doubtful of the message? I think there have been at least 4 "end of the world" scenarios in my rather short lifetime and there's always a new proposed date after each one is proven false." It can be compared to, "How many times can we change the solar system model before it's reasonable to be doubtful of the message? I think there have been at least 4 changes in what we believe to be the center of our universe in my rather short lifetime and there's always a new proposed center after each one is proven false." It is a science. It is scientifically proven that the damage we have done to our climate is going to eventually cause very bad consequences. The only question is when, which is very difficult to pin down with constantly changing conditions. It's like trying to identify when the next tornado will hit. You don't know precisely when, you might have some false positives, but you know it will happen. You don't get to say, "Well this is the fifth time the meteorologist has told me to evacuate, I have reason to believe this is politically motivated".
- ryandrake 4y ago
  I think what parent is getting at is: Year after year, we're always only a few years away from Climate Change being irreversible. The constant "We're almost beyond the point of no return, but not quite" declarations remind me of the Truck Almost Hits A Pole meme[1]. Or like preachers predicting "Jesus's return is just around the corner" every year for the last 2000 years. At some point message fatigue sets in and you start tuning it out. I know it's impossible to predict exactly when that point is, but why is it always "a few years away"? 1: https://imgur.com/r/gifs/kuplW0m https://imgur.com/r/gifs/kuplW0m
  - guerrilla 4y ago
    It's not a few years away, you're just confounding different messages. It's past the point of no return for 1C and for getting extreme weather. NOW what's not that far away is 1.5C.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- misslibby 4y ago
  There were many claims that we would be suffering from extreme consequences by now already, zero of which have materialized. That is not to say that ALL predictions are necessarily wrong, but enough to be wary of the fear mongering. Especially since dramatic predictions probably yield more government money.
  - wing-_-nuts 4y ago
    >zero of which have materialized. Uh, really? There are any number of natural disasters that have been made many times worse by climate change, but ignorance is bliss I guess...
elil17 4y ago
If you’re thinking of CFCs, we banned CFCs to solve the problem. If you’re thinking of nukes, we had New START, SALT, NPT, etc. and a shit ton of activism which significantly reduced the threat. If you’re thinking of past claims that we’re “past the point of no return” for climate change, those claims were correct. We passed the point of no return for avoiding extreme weather due to climate change. Then we passed the point of no return for 1C of warming. Now we are nearing the point of no return for 1.5C of warming. Things are getting worse for the climate, which is why people keep saying that things are getting worse for the climate. That said, apathy is counterproductive. We need hopeful children and adults to drive political and technological change. Therapy or other tools for reducing anxiety (e.g. exercise) could help people be hopeful.
- misslibby 4y ago
  Kids should learn something tangible and useful, that could help them develop tools to meet the challenges of the future. Instead they are just constantly being told that they are doomed and in how many ways they could help by eschew consuming things and not having kids themselves.
haxiomic 4y ago
We’re perfectly inline with exxons predictions of warming made in the 80s [0]. From the science, the predictions are unwavering, clear and project difficult times for the latter 21st century. It’s a constant that the news will report doom whenever it can, but the fundamental science never changes. [0] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyKnDRfUYAAp4Nt.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyKnDRfUYAAp4Nt.jpg

renewiltord 4y ago

Even the top estimates have less than a hundred million dead, mostly in developing nations, but kids in Houston have anxiety over that? Sounds unlikely. Surely sounds even more unlikely that kids living with MAD over their heads had less anxiety.

elil17 4y ago

They really aren’t. It took global political action to avert several past global disasters (CFCs and nuclear weapons for example - although we aren’t totally in the clear on that one yet). Climate change is simply harder because oil is more useful than spray cans and nukes.

Retric 4y ago

Climate change will kill more people than serial killers or sharks that people also get seriously afraid off. But it’s not going to cause the kind of society ending harm that people often fear. It’s hard to communicate bad stuff can be bad without it being WWIII kinds of bad. Imagine time traveling before the pandemic to your younger self in say late 2018 and describing what’s going to happen in detail, in such a way that your younger self feels the same way about it as you do right now.

BurningFrog 4y ago

There is certainly nothing in the IPCC reports suggesting a disaster anywhere close to level. It will be a serious problem that will take big efforts to solve, but on a civilizational level, it will be much more of an inconvenience than a disaster. >"Everything seems to say..." What I just wrote above doesn't go viral or generate millions of clicks. For that you need predictions of epic disaster. So epic disaster stories are what go viral, show up everywhere, makes it easy to conclude that "everything seems to say" that.

mhh__ 4y ago

It won't be like a global holocaust but it will cause massive economic and social disruption mostly in places that didn't cause it.