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I'm also an academic, if that matters for some reason, and I think it doesn't matter how many people didn't understand something. They must have been confusing
by WhyOhWhyQ 4y ago
I'm also an academic, if that matters for some reason, and I think it doesn't matter how many people didn't understand something. They must have been confusing themselves by seeking answers in the wrong direction. What matters is that the resolution I've given truly is simple. You have a 1/3 chance of being in a situation where changing doors is unfavorable, you have a 2/3 chance of being in a situation where changing doors is favorable. If you picked the door with the car, which happens with 1/3 probability, at the next stage switching is a bad option. If you picked a door with the goat, which happens with 2/3 probability, at the next stage switching is a good option. This is objectively simple, regardless of what a large number of people might think.
I also don't think changing the problem to an analogous one is as helpful as this direct and simple solution. Using 100 doors could mean multiple things. Maybe it means at the next stage you have 99 doors left. Maybe it means at the next stage you have 2 doors left. Why should I think either is the correct analog? You can just see the simple answer I've stated and be done with it.