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The sound barrier is a stark nonlinearity in air travel. Electric cars have nothing of the sort. The future is evidently one of modest improvement toward a ste
by samatman 4y ago
The sound barrier is a stark nonlinearity in air travel.
Electric cars have nothing of the sort. The future is evidently one of modest improvement toward a steady state for existing lithium chemistries and the motors which they drive. There's room for quantum improvement in battery chemistry but I'm in camp Goodenough, I expect in 20 years 90% of vehicle batteries will be a lithium cobalt or lithium iron phosphate pack, as they are now (let's ignore the surprising number of lead-acid cars in China as the evolutionary dead end which they are).
We're somewhere in the comfortable middle in terms of technology, and right at the starting line industrially. Most of the economies of scale are yet to come.
- tiffanyh 4y agoGP argument is Elon's position as well that technology does NOT inevitably advance forward. We forget how the Egyptians built the pyramids, or how the Romans built the aquifers or even how to land on the moon. Unless we're actively working to improve and to build on top of prior advancements, technology will not inevitably advance.
- samatman 4y agoGPs post is two sentences and one of them is about the Concorde. I believe it was fair to stick to explaining why that isn't especially germane to electric autos; it isn't. Neither are ancient burial mounds, moon landings, nor in fact the Roman ability to build underground lakes, which we will never recover since they were unable to do so. I know you meant aquaduct but of course California has put the Romans to shame in that department.