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The Monty Hall problem has a simple resolution. At the beginning you had a 1/3 chance of picking the good door, and 2/3 chance of picking a bad door, meaning yo
by WhyOhWhyQ 4y ago
The Monty Hall problem has a simple resolution. At the beginning you had a 1/3 chance of picking the good door, and 2/3 chance of picking a bad door, meaning you probably picked a bad door at the start, so you should switch.
- entropicgravity 4y agoYou can say 'simple' but a whole pantheon of academics famously got it wrong. If you really want to understand the problem use 100 doors instead of three and then it becomes very clear whats going on.
- orthoxerox 4y agoOr a million scratch-off tickets.
- WhyOhWhyQ 4y agoI'm also an academic, if that matters for some reason, and I think it doesn't matter how many people didn't understand something. They must have been confusing themselves by seeking answers in the wrong direction. What matters is that the resolution I've given truly is simple. You have a 1/3 chance of being in a situation where changing doors is unfavorable, you have a 2/3 chance of being in a situation where changing doors is favorable. If you picked the door with the car, which happens with 1/3 probability, at the next stage switching is a bad option. If you picked a door with the goat, which happens with 2/3 probability, at the next stage switching is a good option. This is objectively simple, regardless of what a large number of people might think. I also don't think changing the problem to an analogous one is as helpful as this direct and simple solution. Using 100 doors could mean multiple things. Maybe it means at the next stage you have 99 doors left. Maybe it means at the next stage you have 2 doors left. Why should I think either is the correct analog? You can just see the simple answer I've stated and be done with it.