4 ms·

> Would a faster computer improve outcomes for victims of natural disaster? How much is left undiscovered about weather? The US is way behind on weather model

> Would a faster computer improve outcomes for victims of natural disaster? How much is left undiscovered about weather? The US is way behind on weather modelling, in part due to lack of computing power available to do the grids at sufficiently small cells compared to Europe and other parts of the world. That means less accurate predictions and less advance notice of impending disasters, which means more risk of loss of life and impact on infrastructure and the economy (and vice versa, inaccuracy can lead to more caution than is necessary, which has economic impact too). The US has to lean on Europe etc. for predictions. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/02/smartphone-weather-apps-can-you-trust.html https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/02/smartphone-weather-ap... Talks about the fact that IBM / Weather.com actually uses a more accurate system than the NWS uses, because the NWS is still stuck on GFS (been several years now since congress passed an act to force NOAA to update away from it, and unfortunately it takes time)

quanto 4y ago
This is an interesting claim. Could you share a reputable source on your claim that the US weather prediction facility is behind its European counterparts? How does the US depend on Europe for weather predictions?
studmuffin650 4y ago
I've heard that was the case with the old GFS model. They just updated the GFS model in 2021 to provide higher accuracy: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-flagship-us-global-weather-model#:~:text=The%20GFS%20resolution%20will%20increase,this%20latest%20upgrade%20as%20well https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-flagship-us.... I'm not entirely sure how it compared the ECMWF model during last years hurricane season, but I do think its improved substantially.
jsmith99 4y ago
For comparison, the UK government Met Office installed a similar sized cluster of Cray XC40 machines about 6 years ago, with a 60 petaflop replacement arriving this year. Their forecasts are, anecdotally, locally considered a bit rubbish though.
- hermitdev 4y ago
  You want a rubbish forecast? Just the other week, I got "no rain in your future" (24hr outlook) . I live in Seattle. It's spring. Of course there was rain.

quanto 4y ago

This is an interesting claim. Could you share a reputable source on your claim that the US weather prediction facility is behind its European counterparts? How does the US depend on Europe for weather predictions?

studmuffin650 4y ago

I've heard that was the case with the old GFS model. They just updated the GFS model in 2021 to provide higher accuracy: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-flagship-us-global-weather-model#:~:text=The%20GFS%20resolution%20will%20increase,this%20latest%20upgrade%20as%20well https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-flagship-us.... I'm not entirely sure how it compared the ECMWF model during last years hurricane season, but I do think its improved substantially.

jsmith99 4y ago

For comparison, the UK government Met Office installed a similar sized cluster of Cray XC40 machines about 6 years ago, with a 60 petaflop replacement arriving this year. Their forecasts are, anecdotally, locally considered a bit rubbish though.

hermitdev 4y ago
You want a rubbish forecast? Just the other week, I got "no rain in your future" (24hr outlook) . I live in Seattle. It's spring. Of course there was rain.