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>Surprised there’s no discussion on the price delta here - I could buy 10x power-walls for $110k, or 1x E F150 for $40k and get a free truck thrown in. The rea

by slg 4y ago

>Surprised there’s no discussion on the price delta here - I could buy 10x power-walls for $110k, or 1x E F150 for $40k and get a free truck thrown in. The reason there is no discussion of price delta is at least partially because the price of the truck discussed in the article is not the $40k variant. 10 Powerwalls would be 140 kWh of battery while the $40k F-150 Lightning would be 98 kWh. The one mentioned in the article with the 131 kWh battery is nearly double the price starting at $72.5k. That still might make the F-150 the better solution, but accuracy is important.

vlovich123 4y ago
10 Powerwalls: 1.27 Wh/$ 1 40k truck: 3.5 Wh/$ 1 72.5k truck: 1.8 Wh/$ I think you're better off getting the 40k truck. I have no idea how Ford is getting batteries for so much cheaper for the 40k truck.
- toiletfuneral 4y ago
  do we know the margins on Tesla Powerwalls?
  - lupire 4y ago
    Presumably extremely high, because we can't name a competitor and battery supply is limited by manufacturing logistics not supply/demand.
    - throwtheacctawy 4y ago
    - namlem 4y ago
      There are actually quite a lot of companies in that space, though mostly pretty small ones. Panasonic does sell their own home battery system though.
- nielsbot 4y ago
  Or maybe Tesla is charging a lot
- slg 4y ago
  Your general question is fair, but your math is wrong which exaggerates the difference. 10 Powerwalls: 140 kWh / $110k = 1.27 Wh/$ 1 40k truck: 98 kWh / $40k = 2.45 Wh/$ 72.5k truck: 131 kWh / $72.5k = 1.81 Wh/$ That said, I would speculate the that base model is effectively being subsidized by the marketing team. Saying it "starts at under $40k" sounds a lot better than "starts at under $73k". Ford simply won't produce that model in high quantities and they also know people generally won't be buying the base model anyway.
  - enragedcacti 4y ago
    Apparently 1/5 Lightning's are the $40k pro model for the commercial market. I wouldn't be surprised if Ford is selling at a loss, but it's more likely to get the foot in the door of electrifying work trucks and making sure companies are investing in electric infrastructure so that Ford can replace the other 90% of the companies fleet with electric at a profit. https://insideevs.com/news/584709/ford-one-five-f150-lightning-trucks-made-is-40k-pro-base-model/ https://insideevs.com/news/584709/ford-one-five-f150-lightni...
  - Dan_- 4y ago
    The 72.5k truck only provides about 90 kwh at 9.6kw 90 / 72.5 = 1.24 Wh/$ Source is a footnote on Sunrun's site: "3When home is properly equipped and home transfer switch disconnects home from the grid. Based on 30kWh use per day using the F-150 Lightning with the extended range battery...." It requires the 80A charger which costs $4k + installation + the electrical upgrades to send 80A to wherever your charger is located. It's incompatible with many solar systems too.
- ActorNightly 4y ago
  >I have no idea how Ford is getting batteries for so much cheaper for the 40k truck. Because F150 is the number one vehicle sold in US, and Lightning is the platform that is aiming to replace it in the future. Ford probably has long term supply contracts with battery manufacturers.
- cloudwalking 4y ago
  They aren’t, yet. There is enough demand that Ford does not need to produce these smaller pack cars for a few years at least. Much like Tesla, they announce the cheaper (shorter range) config, but enough demand exists they never need to actually build it.
  - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
    Yep. And here in Canada my understanding is the $40k (US) variant won't even be sold to consumers. Fleet vehicle only. This is an ongoing switcheroo with EV manufacturers unfortunately. Targeting the high margin luxury segment only. They announce lower trims with cheaper prices only so that they can bait consumers but also get in good with various government subsidies. Likely it all has to do with battery supplies. There's just not enough of them.
  - bluGill 4y ago
    The larger pack gets you a much larger towing capacity, in exchange for less cargo capacity (weight, not volume). You don't get much cargo either way, so for the commercial market trailers seem like something you have to have, and the extended range battery is thus required.
  - namlem 4y ago
    Many fleet purchasers are very much interested in the short range model. It's being targeted at businesses, not end consumers. Local businesses like landscapers don't need a ton of range. I believe Ford's long term strategy is to make up for the small margin with high volume on this model.
    - cloudwalking 4y ago
      Yes that is a good long term strategy, but short to medium term, there are not enough batteries, and batteries are not cheap enough. It's aspirationally priced (which is OK because there is so much demand for the expensive models too right now).
- antisthenes 4y ago
  Nice exposition of Tesla's grift. For all that screaming about $100/kWh packs, none of those cost savings ever seem to trickle down to the end customer.
tails4e 4y ago
You can buy LFP cells for about 2k for 10kwh, so this is 5wh/$, the use case is for a diy alternative to powerwall, but long story short, I'm sure Ford pay less for their batteries.

by slg 4y ago

vlovich123 4y ago

10 Powerwalls: 1.27 Wh/$ 1 40k truck: 3.5 Wh/$ 1 72.5k truck: 1.8 Wh/$ I think you're better off getting the 40k truck. I have no idea how Ford is getting batteries for so much cheaper for the 40k truck.

toiletfuneral 4y ago
do we know the margins on Tesla Powerwalls?
- lupire 4y ago
  Presumably extremely high, because we can't name a competitor and battery supply is limited by manufacturing logistics not supply/demand.
  - throwtheacctawy 4y ago
  - namlem 4y ago
    There are actually quite a lot of companies in that space, though mostly pretty small ones. Panasonic does sell their own home battery system though.
nielsbot 4y ago
Or maybe Tesla is charging a lot
slg 4y ago
Your general question is fair, but your math is wrong which exaggerates the difference. 10 Powerwalls: 140 kWh / $110k = 1.27 Wh/$ 1 40k truck: 98 kWh / $40k = 2.45 Wh/$ 72.5k truck: 131 kWh / $72.5k = 1.81 Wh/$ That said, I would speculate the that base model is effectively being subsidized by the marketing team. Saying it "starts at under $40k" sounds a lot better than "starts at under $73k". Ford simply won't produce that model in high quantities and they also know people generally won't be buying the base model anyway.
- enragedcacti 4y ago
  Apparently 1/5 Lightning's are the $40k pro model for the commercial market. I wouldn't be surprised if Ford is selling at a loss, but it's more likely to get the foot in the door of electrifying work trucks and making sure companies are investing in electric infrastructure so that Ford can replace the other 90% of the companies fleet with electric at a profit. https://insideevs.com/news/584709/ford-one-five-f150-lightning-trucks-made-is-40k-pro-base-model/ https://insideevs.com/news/584709/ford-one-five-f150-lightni...
- Dan_- 4y ago
  The 72.5k truck only provides about 90 kwh at 9.6kw 90 / 72.5 = 1.24 Wh/$ Source is a footnote on Sunrun's site: "3When home is properly equipped and home transfer switch disconnects home from the grid. Based on 30kWh use per day using the F-150 Lightning with the extended range battery...." It requires the 80A charger which costs $4k + installation + the electrical upgrades to send 80A to wherever your charger is located. It's incompatible with many solar systems too.
ActorNightly 4y ago
>I have no idea how Ford is getting batteries for so much cheaper for the 40k truck. Because F150 is the number one vehicle sold in US, and Lightning is the platform that is aiming to replace it in the future. Ford probably has long term supply contracts with battery manufacturers.
cloudwalking 4y ago
They aren’t, yet. There is enough demand that Ford does not need to produce these smaller pack cars for a few years at least. Much like Tesla, they announce the cheaper (shorter range) config, but enough demand exists they never need to actually build it.
- cmrdporcupine 4y ago
  Yep. And here in Canada my understanding is the $40k (US) variant won't even be sold to consumers. Fleet vehicle only. This is an ongoing switcheroo with EV manufacturers unfortunately. Targeting the high margin luxury segment only. They announce lower trims with cheaper prices only so that they can bait consumers but also get in good with various government subsidies. Likely it all has to do with battery supplies. There's just not enough of them.
- bluGill 4y ago
  The larger pack gets you a much larger towing capacity, in exchange for less cargo capacity (weight, not volume). You don't get much cargo either way, so for the commercial market trailers seem like something you have to have, and the extended range battery is thus required.
- namlem 4y ago
  Many fleet purchasers are very much interested in the short range model. It's being targeted at businesses, not end consumers. Local businesses like landscapers don't need a ton of range. I believe Ford's long term strategy is to make up for the small margin with high volume on this model.
  - cloudwalking 4y ago
    Yes that is a good long term strategy, but short to medium term, there are not enough batteries, and batteries are not cheap enough. It's aspirationally priced (which is OK because there is so much demand for the expensive models too right now).
antisthenes 4y ago
Nice exposition of Tesla's grift. For all that screaming about $100/kWh packs, none of those cost savings ever seem to trickle down to the end customer.

tails4e 4y ago

You can buy LFP cells for about 2k for 10kwh, so this is 5wh/$, the use case is for a diy alternative to powerwall, but long story short, I'm sure Ford pay less for their batteries.