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If you just go by the news, yeah, it may seem like everything is terrible all the time. But if you allow for a slightly larger perspective, you can see that thi

If you just go by the news, yeah, it may seem like everything is terrible all the time. But if you allow for a slightly larger perspective, you can see that things have never been better for humanity. Just look at the massive improvement in average life expectancy over the past 200 years [0]. Through the unrelenting application of human ingenuity, we've more than doubled the average life expectancy (while also massively increasing the number of people on earth). For the people who can focus on specific problems, we can figure out ways to massively improve the quality of life of billions of people. Often it comes out of accidental discoveries or information that jumps across domain boundaries, and I learn a lot across domain boundaries here on HN. I wish the news celebrated the good more often, but the business model rewards attention, and I guess people give more attention to the bad than the good. But just look back over your own lifetime and note the progress. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?tab=chart&time=1770..2019&country=Africa+Asia+Europe+OWID_WRL+Americas+Oceania https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?tab=chart...

bojangleslover 4y ago
I couldn't agree more. This reminds me of how the UK defines poverty as "60% of the median income". I couldn't imagine a more moving goalpost. By definition, there will always be x% of the population in "poverty". I don't think anyone is in absolute poverty in the UK and life is so incredibly easy and comfortable here.
- TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
  If no one is in absolute poverty why did 2.1 million people have to ask for emergency food aid over the last year? Why are 13% of English households and 25% of Scottish households unable to afford heat and light? Life may be incredibly easy and comfortable for you, but it's certainly not incredibly easy and comfortable for everyone. Post like these are exactly what reinforces pessimism. There are almost hallucinogenic levels of reality denial happening around the world - often based on "I'm not experiencing any difficulty personally so how can anything be wrong?" Problems can't be solved until they're acknowledged and reality is engaged with. If that doesn't happen problems that are over there can suddenly start appearing right here. It's smarter and more efficient not to let things get to that point.
  - BrianOnHN 4y ago
    > It's smarter and more efficient not to let things get to that point Thoughts like this give me hope.
  - yadoomerta 4y ago
    <3
  - bojangleslover 4y ago
    How many truly starting people do you see in the UK? 1/3 of them are obese.
mongol 4y ago
I would argue 2019 was a lot better than 2022. Seeing Russia transform itself to an oversized version of North Korea mixed with strokes of Nazi Germany is not what I expect of a timeline that is continuously getting better. And now Turkey is rattling its weapons too. I fear we are heading for some increasingly dark times.
yadoomerta 4y ago
I agree, modern medicine is great. (Notsomuch insurance at least in America) Other than that though, I find it very hard to point to anything heading in the right direction. Nobody is trying to "massively improve the quality of life of billions of people" they're trying to sell their specific product or be middlemen or "disrupt" things that were regulated for good reason. I struggle to think of anything non-medical that has dramatically improved 2010-present. Certainly many things have gotten worse (house prices, inflation, no wage increases, politics, wars ...)
hotpotamus 4y ago
I agree that the late 19th to mid 20th century time period sounds amazing. I'd recommend "Connections" by James Burke as a truly well written and produced documentary that shows some of the accidental discoveries and connections that led to scientific progress. That said, the majority of my life has been in the 21st century and so far I can't recommend it. You're pretty big on life expectancy, but that's actually down in the US and was trending down even before the pandemic. If you look at Robert Sapolsky's work into primate societies and neuroendocrinology, he'll tell you that inequality is one of the biggest stressors of primate tribes, and the implications for humans are obvious. Yet inequality grows ever greater while many of our elite try ever harder to create a morality in which this is acceptable. I'd look also at children. We just don't have as many of them as we once did. There was a baby bust during the late 30's till the end of WWII that set up for the famous Baby Boom. It seems like we get the bust as though everyone fears the world might end (I'm told it seemed like a real possibility in the 40's), but now for distributed reasons that are economic and ecological. You may say that is just media scare-mongering (I agree their business models reward it dis-proportionately), but real lived experience says otherwise. How many economic disasters do you think a Millenial need live through before they fear the next one? How many years grinding away at a crappy job while education, housing, and healthcare all grow ever more expensive compared to your pay (which by the way might get shipped overseas next quarter)? How many record setting days of heat do I have to endure before I feel like something isn't right? And if you want more data, look up the wealth and health of Millenials, Gen Xers, and Boomers at any given age - you'll see a continual slide downhill. And all of that might even be OK - every generation faces its challenges, but when you experience them your entire adult life, and then you get gaslighted and told that the problems don't even exist (presumably in order to justify the ongoing inequality) then you might start to lose hope. You might start to see them doing some strange things. Look at mental health issues amongst Gen Z - another place where the data isn't going to look so rosy. Look at the rise in crime, or the ultimate expression of nihilistic anger - the mass-murder suicide by the young (male) zealot. Sure you can blame the media, but that just seems like another lazy excuse or attempt to hide the real problems of modern life.
- BrianOnHN 4y ago
  That's a lot to take in. Thanks for taking the time to share your insights. Is their anything you might say to people that are looking for advice?

bojangleslover 4y ago

I couldn't agree more. This reminds me of how the UK defines poverty as "60% of the median income". I couldn't imagine a more moving goalpost. By definition, there will always be x% of the population in "poverty". I don't think anyone is in absolute poverty in the UK and life is so incredibly easy and comfortable here.

TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
If no one is in absolute poverty why did 2.1 million people have to ask for emergency food aid over the last year? Why are 13% of English households and 25% of Scottish households unable to afford heat and light? Life may be incredibly easy and comfortable for you, but it's certainly not incredibly easy and comfortable for everyone. Post like these are exactly what reinforces pessimism. There are almost hallucinogenic levels of reality denial happening around the world - often based on "I'm not experiencing any difficulty personally so how can anything be wrong?" Problems can't be solved until they're acknowledged and reality is engaged with. If that doesn't happen problems that are over there can suddenly start appearing right here. It's smarter and more efficient not to let things get to that point.
- BrianOnHN 4y ago
  > It's smarter and more efficient not to let things get to that point Thoughts like this give me hope.
- yadoomerta 4y ago
  <3
- bojangleslover 4y ago
  How many truly starting people do you see in the UK? 1/3 of them are obese.

mongol 4y ago

I would argue 2019 was a lot better than 2022. Seeing Russia transform itself to an oversized version of North Korea mixed with strokes of Nazi Germany is not what I expect of a timeline that is continuously getting better. And now Turkey is rattling its weapons too. I fear we are heading for some increasingly dark times.

yadoomerta 4y ago

I agree, modern medicine is great. (Notsomuch insurance at least in America) Other than that though, I find it very hard to point to anything heading in the right direction. Nobody is trying to "massively improve the quality of life of billions of people" they're trying to sell their specific product or be middlemen or "disrupt" things that were regulated for good reason. I struggle to think of anything non-medical that has dramatically improved 2010-present. Certainly many things have gotten worse (house prices, inflation, no wage increases, politics, wars ...)

hotpotamus 4y ago

I agree that the late 19th to mid 20th century time period sounds amazing. I'd recommend "Connections" by James Burke as a truly well written and produced documentary that shows some of the accidental discoveries and connections that led to scientific progress. That said, the majority of my life has been in the 21st century and so far I can't recommend it. You're pretty big on life expectancy, but that's actually down in the US and was trending down even before the pandemic. If you look at Robert Sapolsky's work into primate societies and neuroendocrinology, he'll tell you that inequality is one of the biggest stressors of primate tribes, and the implications for humans are obvious. Yet inequality grows ever greater while many of our elite try ever harder to create a morality in which this is acceptable. I'd look also at children. We just don't have as many of them as we once did. There was a baby bust during the late 30's till the end of WWII that set up for the famous Baby Boom. It seems like we get the bust as though everyone fears the world might end (I'm told it seemed like a real possibility in the 40's), but now for distributed reasons that are economic and ecological. You may say that is just media scare-mongering (I agree their business models reward it dis-proportionately), but real lived experience says otherwise. How many economic disasters do you think a Millenial need live through before they fear the next one? How many years grinding away at a crappy job while education, housing, and healthcare all grow ever more expensive compared to your pay (which by the way might get shipped overseas next quarter)? How many record setting days of heat do I have to endure before I feel like something isn't right? And if you want more data, look up the wealth and health of Millenials, Gen Xers, and Boomers at any given age - you'll see a continual slide downhill. And all of that might even be OK - every generation faces its challenges, but when you experience them your entire adult life, and then you get gaslighted and told that the problems don't even exist (presumably in order to justify the ongoing inequality) then you might start to lose hope. You might start to see them doing some strange things. Look at mental health issues amongst Gen Z - another place where the data isn't going to look so rosy. Look at the rise in crime, or the ultimate expression of nihilistic anger - the mass-murder suicide by the young (male) zealot. Sure you can blame the media, but that just seems like another lazy excuse or attempt to hide the real problems of modern life.

BrianOnHN 4y ago
That's a lot to take in. Thanks for taking the time to share your insights. Is their anything you might say to people that are looking for advice?