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I do not like this explanation. In my opinion, the fancy mathematical argument involving infinite series is an unnecessary distraction from a much more fundamen

I do not like this explanation. In my opinion, the fancy mathematical argument involving infinite series is an unnecessary distraction from a much more fundamental and mundane mistake (i.e. incorrectly using a variable out of its scope). I believe mike_hock provides the clearest and simplest explanation in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31567251 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31567251 I also made this argument separately: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31569991 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31569991

Chinjut 4y ago
There's nothing wrong with conditional expectation. E[X] = E[E[X | A]], where E[X | A] is a function of the random variable A. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_expectation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_expectation. When E[X], E[A], and E[X - A] are all well-defined, it is indeed the case that if E[X | A = a] > a for every particular value a, then E[X] > E[A]. What goes awry in this case is that E[X - A] is not well-defined (where X is the value in the unselected envelope and A is the value in the selected envelope). It is given by a conditionally convergent series, as noted.