4 ms·
Of course it's not obvious, that's why it's a "problem". But if only look at the formulat at bullet point 7 there "2A" and "0.5A" as amounts but not "A". It ju
by davidguetta 4y ago
Of course it's not obvious, that's why it's a "problem".
But if only look at the formulat at bullet point 7 there "2A" and "0.5A" as amounts but not "A". It just doesn't describe the current state of reality
not trying to brag, just reformulating the simplest way for everyone to see
- oh_my_goodness 4y agoThis may be progress, but I don't see how it eliminates the "paradox". The claim in the "paradox" answer is that when you switch envelopes, "A" is not one of the possible outcomes. If "A" isn't a possible outcome then it shouldn't show up in the expectation value.
- davidguetta 4y agoBecause A has just not the same value in both terms of the equation. In the left it means "the lowest" and in the other "the highest". It's two versions of the reality in the same equation, which is wrong. Use 100 usd / 200 usd instead of A and 2A and you'll see. If you never switch and if you always switch in both case the equation is 100×0.5 + 200x0.5
- tom-thistime 4y agoI agree that's true once we know that the two envelopes have 100 and 200 dollars. For me the tricky part is, how do we know it's 100 and 200? Maybe we have two envelopes with 100 and 50 dollars instead.
- davidguetta 4y agoDoesn't matter. Define A = 'the lowest' and rewrite the equations you will see the same expectation. The problem is that they interchange A being the lowest and the highest in the same equation.