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The reason I'm low confidence on pay is because I think there will be even more disparity among programmer salaries and the median will be far lower. Will it be

by madrox 4y ago

The reason I'm low confidence on pay is because I think there will be even more disparity among programmer salaries and the median will be far lower. Will it be possible to make a million a year as an engineer in 30 years (forget inflation for a moment)? Sure. However, I think there will be a lot more engineers making five figures. We're lowering the bar to do simple work all the time. Much like the other professions you mentioned, some make millions...others are far more middle-class. As for the rest...they were in direct response to this article's predictions. My VR prediction is tongue-in-cheek because it's been "just around the corner" for the last thirty years. It's not far-fetched to think it'll still be "just around the corner" in another 30.

jrumbut 4y ago
I would agree though for a different reason. If society has to rebuild/replace infrastructure destroyed by more hurricanes, raise ports above new sea levels or build new ports, upgrade the power grid, food takes more resources to grow, etc, all using materials that are being desperately sought by every other nation on earth that's going to take every penny we can find anywhere and that means most salaries will be squeezed. I'm torn about the high end, but my guess is even they will suffer because money is going to basic needs and even if you can help produce them for efficiently there isn't the kind of surplus we see today to reward you.
- astrange 4y ago
  Climate change will mainly not affect the rich countries with computer programmers, except for secondary effects like California wildfires. It’ll mostly affect poor countries at the equator. The median scientific projection is that every year will still be “better” economically than the one before it, including climate change costs, but that it’ll be about as bad as WW2 happening very slowly in the background.
- cellis 4y ago
  Software is going to be needed to control many many more automated systems especially as we age and don’t have replacement birthrates. So the demand, and therefore the pay, for highly skilled technical professions will only increase.

by madrox 4y ago

jrumbut 4y ago

I would agree though for a different reason. If society has to rebuild/replace infrastructure destroyed by more hurricanes, raise ports above new sea levels or build new ports, upgrade the power grid, food takes more resources to grow, etc, all using materials that are being desperately sought by every other nation on earth that's going to take every penny we can find anywhere and that means most salaries will be squeezed. I'm torn about the high end, but my guess is even they will suffer because money is going to basic needs and even if you can help produce them for efficiently there isn't the kind of surplus we see today to reward you.

astrange 4y ago
Climate change will mainly not affect the rich countries with computer programmers, except for secondary effects like California wildfires. It’ll mostly affect poor countries at the equator. The median scientific projection is that every year will still be “better” economically than the one before it, including climate change costs, but that it’ll be about as bad as WW2 happening very slowly in the background.
cellis 4y ago
Software is going to be needed to control many many more automated systems especially as we age and don’t have replacement birthrates. So the demand, and therefore the pay, for highly skilled technical professions will only increase.