3 ms·

I would enjoy an explanation of the rise and timing of excess “all cause” mortality in Australia. I’m happy not to believe this website, but I need more than “

I would enjoy an explanation of the rise and timing of excess “all cause” mortality in Australia. I’m happy not to believe this website, but I need more than “shut up, conspiracy theorist” to get there. https://metatron.substack.com/p/australia-begins-to-reap-what-it?s=r https://metatron.substack.com/p/australia-begins-to-reap-wha...

tomComb 4y ago
So we have to disprove the claims of any random blog?
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  When that blog makes a claim based on official death data, yes. That’s how science works: - Person A makes claim X - Person A then points to data consistent with that claim X and which seems to contradict claim Y - Person B who supports claim Y needs to explain how that data doesn’t contradict claim Y In this case: Claim X — COVID vaccines were not safe Claim Y — COVID vaccines are safe
  - soared 4y ago
    That author just put a line on a time series graph and said the event that occurred somewhere near that line is the cause of the change. Thats not a claim based on official data, thats not even a valid attempt at analysis. Let me plot a time series of temperature by day. Now I'll draw a line where we see firework sales increase massively. Then after that point, temperature increases consistently. Science, official data, etc. No lies here. But now lets claim.... shooting off fireworks increases the temperature of the Earth causing the temperature to rise until the fall/winter. Now you need to expend resources disproving me.
    - zmgsabst 4y ago
      You used that example, but it’s not accurate: If you excluded the reverse, that temperature caused the spike (as they did by showing the COVID curve didn’t account for the excess deaths), then that would be an argument worth refuting.
- throwaway5752 4y ago
  No, please let's not raise the idea that metatron.substack.com's non-expert interpretation of data is a waste of valuable expert time! Wait, I should look at the author's (Joel Smalley) self-described qualifications before getting snarky: Pro bono COVID data analysis for legal challenges and independent media seeking the truth (e.g. Dr Tess Lawrie's letter to the MHRA - https://bit.ly/3FZxpU7 https://bit.ly/3FZxpU7 and Robert Kennedy's book - https://amzn.to/3nMd2mK https://amzn.to/3nMd2mK), shared publicly "for the greater good". https://substack.com/profile/30382446-joel-smalley https://substack.com/profile/30382446-joel-smalley Yes, it is a waste of time. A reasonable presumption is that people are morons or liars unless shown otherwise.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - zmgsabst 4y ago
    I got it: you can only make ad hominems, not address facts about Australia’s death numbers. > A reasonable presumption is that people are morons or liars unless shown otherwise. Is that confirmed when the only argument those people offer is ad hominems?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
pronlover723 4y ago
In a world where the virus kills and the vaccines work what would you expect to see otherwise? In other words, for me, if the vaccines work and the virus kills I'd expect to see the same graphs. Also, you can look at other countries and see if your theory holds up. Here's Australia https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?country=~AUS https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... Here's USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... Here's Japan https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?country=~JPN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... Here's South Korea https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?country=~KOR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... Here's Taiwan https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?country=~TWN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  What am I supposed to be seeing in that data? There are strange surges in US, Aus, and Taiwan, but not in the other two — but they undertook different vaccination campaigns. > In other words, for me, if the vaccines work and the virus kills I'd expect to see the same graphs. Well no — that doesn’t explain why the “all cause” mortality surges in Australia disconnected from the COVID deaths. Even if we were undercounting the COVID deaths, we’d expect the phase of the waves to match, which is disputed by the first graph on that website (which compares COVID and all cause mortality across all sexes/ages.)
jah242 4y ago
Just in case you are asking in good faith. If you look at the same data release, the excess deaths are almost entirely in cancer and dementia in old people (with the exception of a spike in diabetes at the same time as the spike in COVID infections likely due to it being a significant comorbidity). So whilst I m sure the higher excess deaths in Australia is difficult to explain (as there is probably a multitude of factors). The theory that somehow the vaccines give people dementia or cancer (which have not been associated with COVID or the vaccine) AND these usually relatively long term diseases go on to kill them within a 2-4 month period AND this only happens to old people for some reason AND other countries have not observed a similar pattern despite the vast number of vaccines given, seems highly unlikely. In addition, assuming the author is referring to the UK ONS, our public health body does release excess mortality estimates on a weekly basis - and unsurprisingly they correlate with the waves of COVID infections, not the vaccination program. https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9 https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00N...
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  > If you look at the same data release, the excess deaths are almost entirely in cancer and dementia in old people This doesn’t explain the correlated surge in the 45-64 bucket, the last two charts in the link I posted. > unsurprisingly they correlate with the waves of COVID infections, not the vaccination program Do you have a source? What you linked takes me to some generic description of the dataset.
  - jah242 4y ago
    > correlated surge in the 45-64 bucket, the last two charts in the link I posted. Correlated surge is an absurd way to describe something that basically fluctuates around 0 over the course of a year, which makes me think this definitely isn't good faith. > What you linked takes me to some generic description of the dataset. I recommend clicking the buttons on the side, it's a dashboard.
- justsee 4y ago

tomComb 4y ago

So we have to disprove the claims of any random blog?

zmgsabst 4y ago
When that blog makes a claim based on official death data, yes. That’s how science works: - Person A makes claim X - Person A then points to data consistent with that claim X and which seems to contradict claim Y - Person B who supports claim Y needs to explain how that data doesn’t contradict claim Y In this case: Claim X — COVID vaccines were not safe Claim Y — COVID vaccines are safe
- soared 4y ago
  That author just put a line on a time series graph and said the event that occurred somewhere near that line is the cause of the change. Thats not a claim based on official data, thats not even a valid attempt at analysis. Let me plot a time series of temperature by day. Now I'll draw a line where we see firework sales increase massively. Then after that point, temperature increases consistently. Science, official data, etc. No lies here. But now lets claim.... shooting off fireworks increases the temperature of the Earth causing the temperature to rise until the fall/winter. Now you need to expend resources disproving me.
  - zmgsabst 4y ago
    You used that example, but it’s not accurate: If you excluded the reverse, that temperature caused the spike (as they did by showing the COVID curve didn’t account for the excess deaths), then that would be an argument worth refuting.
throwaway5752 4y ago
No, please let's not raise the idea that metatron.substack.com's non-expert interpretation of data is a waste of valuable expert time! Wait, I should look at the author's (Joel Smalley) self-described qualifications before getting snarky: Pro bono COVID data analysis for legal challenges and independent media seeking the truth (e.g. Dr Tess Lawrie's letter to the MHRA - https://bit.ly/3FZxpU7 https://bit.ly/3FZxpU7 and Robert Kennedy's book - https://amzn.to/3nMd2mK https://amzn.to/3nMd2mK), shared publicly "for the greater good". https://substack.com/profile/30382446-joel-smalley https://substack.com/profile/30382446-joel-smalley Yes, it is a waste of time. A reasonable presumption is that people are morons or liars unless shown otherwise.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  I got it: you can only make ad hominems, not address facts about Australia’s death numbers. > A reasonable presumption is that people are morons or liars unless shown otherwise. Is that confirmed when the only argument those people offer is ad hominems?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]

pronlover723 4y ago

In a world where the virus kills and the vaccines work what would you expect to see otherwise? In other words, for me, if the vaccines work and the virus kills I'd expect to see the same graphs. Also, you can look at other countries and see if your theory holds up. Here's Australia https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?country=~AUS https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... Here's USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... Here's Japan https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?country=~JPN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... Here's South Korea https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?country=~KOR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat... Here's Taiwan https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?country=~TWN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
zmgsabst 4y ago
What am I supposed to be seeing in that data? There are strange surges in US, Aus, and Taiwan, but not in the other two — but they undertook different vaccination campaigns. > In other words, for me, if the vaccines work and the virus kills I'd expect to see the same graphs. Well no — that doesn’t explain why the “all cause” mortality surges in Australia disconnected from the COVID deaths. Even if we were undercounting the COVID deaths, we’d expect the phase of the waves to match, which is disputed by the first graph on that website (which compares COVID and all cause mortality across all sexes/ages.)

jah242 4y ago

Just in case you are asking in good faith. If you look at the same data release, the excess deaths are almost entirely in cancer and dementia in old people (with the exception of a spike in diabetes at the same time as the spike in COVID infections likely due to it being a significant comorbidity). So whilst I m sure the higher excess deaths in Australia is difficult to explain (as there is probably a multitude of factors). The theory that somehow the vaccines give people dementia or cancer (which have not been associated with COVID or the vaccine) AND these usually relatively long term diseases go on to kill them within a 2-4 month period AND this only happens to old people for some reason AND other countries have not observed a similar pattern despite the vast number of vaccines given, seems highly unlikely. In addition, assuming the author is referring to the UK ONS, our public health body does release excess mortality estimates on a weekly basis - and unsurprisingly they correlate with the waves of COVID infections, not the vaccination program. https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9 https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00N...

zmgsabst 4y ago
> If you look at the same data release, the excess deaths are almost entirely in cancer and dementia in old people This doesn’t explain the correlated surge in the 45-64 bucket, the last two charts in the link I posted. > unsurprisingly they correlate with the waves of COVID infections, not the vaccination program Do you have a source? What you linked takes me to some generic description of the dataset.
- jah242 4y ago
  > correlated surge in the 45-64 bucket, the last two charts in the link I posted. Correlated surge is an absurd way to describe something that basically fluctuates around 0 over the course of a year, which makes me think this definitely isn't good faith. > What you linked takes me to some generic description of the dataset. I recommend clicking the buttons on the side, it's a dashboard.
justsee 4y ago