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Not sure what you mean. Inflation drives prices up so it was a great run up. Not going to short my house or anything (especially living in it) because, as the

Not sure what you mean. Inflation drives prices up so it was a great run up. Not going to short my house or anything (especially living in it) because, as they say, people can stay irrational for a long time. I did get out of all my investments (stocks, crypto, etc...) a few months ago when it was obvious central banks would have to act.

arisAlexis 4y ago
If it is so easy and so obvious for you to predict the market you are beating all the hedge fund managers almost. Change of job?
- Mikeb85 4y ago
  Predicting that massive spending will lead to inflation isn't that same as predicting the market itself. There's correlation but It's not 100%.
  - arisAlexis 4y ago
    Paul Krugman amongst others, a novelist predicted that massive spending will not lead to lasting inflation. Many top notch economists said that. If you think you knew better hindsight bias.
    - Mikeb85 4y ago
      https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/03/25/just-how-anchored-are-americas-inflation-expectations https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/03/25/j... https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/economy/inflation-larry-summers-biden-fed/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/economy/inflation-larry-summe... Tons of economists predicted this. Larry Summers is a very prominent example. You just have to open your eyes.
      - arisAlexis 4y ago
        You don't get it. If 50% predict a and another 50% predict b and a layman predicts b saying "hey it was so obvious" he is in great error. You that is my friend.
        Mikeb85 4y ago
        Layman? My degree is literally in economics. And yes it was obvious. Any economist who didn't see it is probably a bought shill. It's not 50/50. What happened is orthodox economics ie. academic consensus. And Krugman is a shill, FYI.
- Mikeb85 4y ago
  Also hedge funds have different goals for themselves and their clients. It's not necessarily hard to beat them, the question is whether it's worth your time and if the returns hold up when you trade larger amounts. I daytraded for awhile, got good returns but more traditional work is more rewarding and a better use of time, not to mention less stressful.

arisAlexis 4y ago

If it is so easy and so obvious for you to predict the market you are beating all the hedge fund managers almost. Change of job?

Mikeb85 4y ago
Predicting that massive spending will lead to inflation isn't that same as predicting the market itself. There's correlation but It's not 100%.
- arisAlexis 4y ago
  Paul Krugman amongst others, a novelist predicted that massive spending will not lead to lasting inflation. Many top notch economists said that. If you think you knew better hindsight bias.
  - Mikeb85 4y ago
    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/03/25/just-how-anchored-are-americas-inflation-expectations https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/03/25/j... https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/economy/inflation-larry-summers-biden-fed/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/economy/inflation-larry-summe... Tons of economists predicted this. Larry Summers is a very prominent example. You just have to open your eyes.
    - arisAlexis 4y ago
      You don't get it. If 50% predict a and another 50% predict b and a layman predicts b saying "hey it was so obvious" he is in great error. You that is my friend.
      - Mikeb85 4y ago
        Layman? My degree is literally in economics. And yes it was obvious. Any economist who didn't see it is probably a bought shill. It's not 50/50. What happened is orthodox economics ie. academic consensus. And Krugman is a shill, FYI.
Mikeb85 4y ago
Also hedge funds have different goals for themselves and their clients. It's not necessarily hard to beat them, the question is whether it's worth your time and if the returns hold up when you trade larger amounts. I daytraded for awhile, got good returns but more traditional work is more rewarding and a better use of time, not to mention less stressful.