4 ms·

A "tropical paradise" at the poles, with uninhabitable equatorial regions, and untold disruption to human civilization as we know it. The transition to that glo

A "tropical paradise" at the poles, with uninhabitable equatorial regions, and untold disruption to human civilization as we know it. The transition to that global configuration is unlikely to look paradisal.

Geee 4y ago
That's not likely going to happen. There are many periods in Earth history where co2 levels were way higher than now, and no large-scale desertification events are known. Periods of very high co2 and higher temperatures are known for hosting more life.[0][1] Plants and animals thrive in high co2. Less co2 has caused glacification events and loss of life. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Flora https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Flora [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Fauna https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Fauna
- EForEndeavour 4y ago
  I didn't mention desertification, but habitability - I meant to imply "inhabitable by unprotected humans." The Eocene saw a thermal maximum in which global mean temperature increased by about 6 ºC, and a much wetter climate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum#Evidence_for_global_warming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Therm... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature: > The theoretical limit to human survival for more than a few hours in the shade, even with unlimited water, is a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00695-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00695-3: > Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will prevent most of the tropics from reaching a TW of 35 °C, the limit of human adaptation.
  - Geee 4y ago
    Fair point. How about animals? It seems that many modern mammals, including primates, evolved and thrived during the Eocene. Most of the world today is too cold for humans living without protection, so I'm not completely buying that it would be worse than today. It might require moving around a bit, but not a total catastrophe.

Geee 4y ago

That's not likely going to happen. There are many periods in Earth history where co2 levels were way higher than now, and no large-scale desertification events are known. Periods of very high co2 and higher temperatures are known for hosting more life.[0][1] Plants and animals thrive in high co2. Less co2 has caused glacification events and loss of life. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Flora https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Flora [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Fauna https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Fauna

EForEndeavour 4y ago
I didn't mention desertification, but habitability - I meant to imply "inhabitable by unprotected humans." The Eocene saw a thermal maximum in which global mean temperature increased by about 6 ºC, and a much wetter climate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum#Evidence_for_global_warming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Therm... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature: > The theoretical limit to human survival for more than a few hours in the shade, even with unlimited water, is a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00695-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00695-3: > Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will prevent most of the tropics from reaching a TW of 35 °C, the limit of human adaptation.
- Geee 4y ago
  Fair point. How about animals? It seems that many modern mammals, including primates, evolved and thrived during the Eocene. Most of the world today is too cold for humans living without protection, so I'm not completely buying that it would be worse than today. It might require moving around a bit, but not a total catastrophe.