3 ms·

The data used by that study is actually based on the pessimistic estimates from the older WHO analysis. If you use the more modern estimates by the UNSCEAR (the

by cyphar 4y ago

The data used by that study is actually based on the pessimistic estimates from the older WHO analysis. If you use the more modern estimates by the UNSCEAR (the United Nations body dealing with effects of radiation), nuclear power is safer than any other kind of power on a per-TWh basis. It's not really honest to say that an already pessimistic estimate (which is now considered by at least some scientists -- including the UN body dealing with the topic -- to be incorrect) might be underestimating total deaths from Chernobyl.

natmaka 4y ago
There is no universally accepted way to estimate the amount of victims. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl:_Consequences_of_the_Catastrophe_for_People_and_the_Environment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl:_Consequences_of_the...
- cyphar 4y ago
  The Wikipedia article you linked to says that work was not peer-reviewed and four academic reviews were published criticising it (with only one positive review which still said it had shortcomings). You can choose to believe that Chernobyl killed just shy of 1 million people but that's at odds with all peer-reviewed research on the topic (which projects it will reach the mid-to-low thousands in total, with the current death toll in the hundreds at most).
  - natmaka 4y ago
    Everybody can read about the authors and methods, abut the critics and their answer to it. > mid-to-low thousands in total, with the current death toll in the hundreds at most ... isn't exactly summarizing the (quite large) spectrum of estimations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_Chernobyl_disaster#/media/File:Estimated_number_of_deaths_from_the_Chernobyl_nuclear_disaster,_OWID.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_Chernobyl_disas...
trashtester 4y ago
Chernobyl killed millions or tens of millions of people: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/fossil-fuels-pollution-deaths-research https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/fossil-f... Let's say Chernobyl didn't happen, then I would guess around 10% of those fossil fuel deaths would have been prevented. Quick calculation 8.7mill/year * 10 % * 30 years = 26.1 million. So, lets say that the pessimistic side of "mainstream" research on number of deaths from Chernobyl is 26000, the "nuclear scare" effect still caused maybe 1000x as many deaths. Even if I'm off by an order of magnitude, that's still 100x.
- cyphar 4y ago
  I agree that anti-nuclear sentiment has killed millions of people, but the comparison being made here is how different forms of power kill people. In that comparison, including fossil fuel deaths as "deaths caused by Chernobyl" is not reasonable since it obfuscates which source of power is causing the deaths.
  - trashtester 4y ago
    Irony can be hard to communicate in text. Sorry for causing a misunderstanding. My point was that I fully support that nuclear is not only safe, but a technology that saves millions of lives every year, since without it, the world would use coal instead. Furthermore, if more coal could be replaced by nuclear, it would not only delay global warming, but also potentially save tens of millions of lives. The extra cost per GWh is more than made up for in health benefits. But if the costs are seen as too high for current powerplant models, it should be possible to bring the costs down a lot if they are mass-produced and some more to gain from slighly relaxing regulations where the price/benefit of regulations is unreasonable.

by cyphar 4y ago

natmaka 4y ago

There is no universally accepted way to estimate the amount of victims. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl:_Consequences_of_the_Catastrophe_for_People_and_the_Environment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl:_Consequences_of_the...

cyphar 4y ago
The Wikipedia article you linked to says that work was not peer-reviewed and four academic reviews were published criticising it (with only one positive review which still said it had shortcomings). You can choose to believe that Chernobyl killed just shy of 1 million people but that's at odds with all peer-reviewed research on the topic (which projects it will reach the mid-to-low thousands in total, with the current death toll in the hundreds at most).
- natmaka 4y ago
  Everybody can read about the authors and methods, abut the critics and their answer to it. > mid-to-low thousands in total, with the current death toll in the hundreds at most ... isn't exactly summarizing the (quite large) spectrum of estimations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_Chernobyl_disaster#/media/File:Estimated_number_of_deaths_from_the_Chernobyl_nuclear_disaster,_OWID.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_Chernobyl_disas...

trashtester 4y ago

Chernobyl killed millions or tens of millions of people: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/fossil-fuels-pollution-deaths-research https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/fossil-f... Let's say Chernobyl didn't happen, then I would guess around 10% of those fossil fuel deaths would have been prevented. Quick calculation 8.7mill/year * 10 % * 30 years = 26.1 million. So, lets say that the pessimistic side of "mainstream" research on number of deaths from Chernobyl is 26000, the "nuclear scare" effect still caused maybe 1000x as many deaths. Even if I'm off by an order of magnitude, that's still 100x.

cyphar 4y ago
I agree that anti-nuclear sentiment has killed millions of people, but the comparison being made here is how different forms of power kill people. In that comparison, including fossil fuel deaths as "deaths caused by Chernobyl" is not reasonable since it obfuscates which source of power is causing the deaths.
- trashtester 4y ago
  Irony can be hard to communicate in text. Sorry for causing a misunderstanding. My point was that I fully support that nuclear is not only safe, but a technology that saves millions of lives every year, since without it, the world would use coal instead. Furthermore, if more coal could be replaced by nuclear, it would not only delay global warming, but also potentially save tens of millions of lives. The extra cost per GWh is more than made up for in health benefits. But if the costs are seen as too high for current powerplant models, it should be possible to bring the costs down a lot if they are mass-produced and some more to gain from slighly relaxing regulations where the price/benefit of regulations is unreasonable.