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I’m aware of the Chicago/Fama school of thought, its history, and the difference between strong-form and weak-form efficiency, thanks. And before something lik

I’m aware of the Chicago/Fama school of thought, its history, and the difference between strong-form and weak-form efficiency, thanks. And before something like Berkshire even becomes interesting to any version of the EMH, you have to show that Medallion is a fraud. Which, who knows it’s pretty fucking opaque, but they haven’t taken outside money in a long time and keep putting up 30-40% annualized almost every year.

nabla9 4y ago
>I’m aware of the Chicago/Fama school of thought, its history, and the difference between strong-form and weak-form efficiency, thanks. Then you must agree that your comment linking ARKK and HOLDL to efficient markets was misplaced.
- benreesman 4y ago
  Given the verbatim quote from the first paragraph of the wikipedia page, I'll assume you've read it: "The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information." You'll note that "consistent", "risk-adjusted", and "beat the market" are all in quotes, because they are not well-defined technical terms, at least thusly contextualized. What Wikipedia's over-simplification in the first paragraph says is that all available information is incorporated into asset prices. Now even that's more than a little nuanced than one might conclude, because not only is there considerable controversy about how quickly and by what mechanisms this incorporation into prices takes place even in you buy into this malarky, but Eugene Fama himself would sound like Greenspan in front of Congress trying to explain how a defunct Chinese wireless company goes up 47,000% in year on the back of a different company having it's IPO [1]. But I'm really going to hang this on your use of the word "misplaced", and no, I don't think a playful comment with actual information in it ([1] again) is misplaced in a thread full of playful comments about Silicon Valley the TV show. I think grab-the-first-paragraph-from-wikipedia-and-be-a-killjoy-pedant is misplaced. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/investors-appear-to-trade-wrong-zoom-company-shares-before-ipo.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/investors-appear-to-trade-wr...

nabla9 4y ago

>I’m aware of the Chicago/Fama school of thought, its history, and the difference between strong-form and weak-form efficiency, thanks. Then you must agree that your comment linking ARKK and HOLDL to efficient markets was misplaced.

benreesman 4y ago
Given the verbatim quote from the first paragraph of the wikipedia page, I'll assume you've read it: "The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information." You'll note that "consistent", "risk-adjusted", and "beat the market" are all in quotes, because they are not well-defined technical terms, at least thusly contextualized. What Wikipedia's over-simplification in the first paragraph says is that all available information is incorporated into asset prices. Now even that's more than a little nuanced than one might conclude, because not only is there considerable controversy about how quickly and by what mechanisms this incorporation into prices takes place even in you buy into this malarky, but Eugene Fama himself would sound like Greenspan in front of Congress trying to explain how a defunct Chinese wireless company goes up 47,000% in year on the back of a different company having it's IPO [1]. But I'm really going to hang this on your use of the word "misplaced", and no, I don't think a playful comment with actual information in it ([1] again) is misplaced in a thread full of playful comments about Silicon Valley the TV show. I think grab-the-first-paragraph-from-wikipedia-and-be-a-killjoy-pedant is misplaced. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/investors-appear-to-trade-wrong-zoom-company-shares-before-ipo.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/investors-appear-to-trade-wr...