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Ben Felix did a video "Chasing Top Fund Managers": > Seeing people around you pouring money into a hot fund that only seems to get hotter can make sticking wit
by throw0101a 4y ago
Ben Felix did a video "Chasing Top Fund Managers":
> Seeing people around you pouring money into a hot fund that only seems to get hotter can make sticking with any previously well-thought-out investing strategy difficult. As if your diversified portfolio only returned 10% last year when you could have earned 200% in the best fund. While each hot fund manager will seem brilliant at their peak, the phenomenon of star fund managers, including their powerful narratives, huge returns, and media adoration, is nothing new, and it’s not a story that tends to end well for investors.
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6HrepdLSu4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6HrepdLSu4
Basically: Cathy Wood and Ark were/are nothing new. Over the decades there have been many such fund managers. The video was a summary of a longer (1h) podcast episode he did on the topic:
> When you see funds performing monumentally well, you may feel regretful for not investing in them earlier. There is, however, a long history of funds that skyrocketed only to have major falls from grace a brief period after. The bulk of today’s episode is spent exploring this idea in the portfolio topic section but before getting into that, we kick the show off with some updates. We begin by talking about the GameStop short and whether this casts any new light on the concept of market efficiency. From there, we take a look at some recent news, particularly one story about the meteoric growth of New York-based investment managers ARK Invest, who recently hit $50B in assets under management up from $3B this time last year. This story acts as a great segue into the portfolio topic where Ben traces a history of funds that performed colossally well for a brief period but then plummeted thereafter. These funds were under the direction of ‘star’ fund managers with a focus on investing in tech disruptors. The discussion acts as a cautionary tale about overpaying for growth leading to poor realized returns. For the planning topic, we continue to shine a light on the ‘Talking Cents’ card game, a financial literacy outreach strategy created by The University of Chicago Financial Education Initiative. We invite the director of the Financial Education Initiative, Rebecca Maxcy, onto the show to speak about some of the thinking around this project and then discuss a few of the questions posed by the cards ourselves. Tune in today!
* https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/136 https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/136
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhluPwDaNAQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhluPwDaNAQ
Bunch of links to the research papers he mentions/cites.
Basically: top managers do have some skill, but as the fund gets bigger it takes more skill to out-perform the market. The problems with many managers really start arising with 'open' funds where anyone can throw in money: generally these people 'run out of runway'. Whatever skill they may have eventually gets overwhelmed.
It's probably why Renaissance Technologies' (RenTec's) Medallion Fund can get such great returns: closed to everyone except a select few, and even then the fund limits its size to 'only' US$ 10B, and 'excess' money has to be removed. They realized whatever they're doing can't scale.