Putin's bet seems to be that sanctions will erode and be lifted before microchip, oil technology embargo actually hits Russian economy. Medvedev explicitly sai

Putin's bet seems to be that sanctions will erode and be lifted before microchip, oil technology embargo actually hits Russian economy. Medvedev explicitly said this two days before invasion. Yes, Western reaction will be loud but short-lived. Once European customer will feel prices hike or refugee influx, governments will be under immense preasure to resolve conflict ASAP. This is martial arts 101, which Putin seems to be a big fan of. You engage with opponent, lock with them and apply pain on any possible surface until they submit and let go. North African instability and revolts due to widespread hunger is yet another ankle that he can twist in this lock. Another one is Syria which is under his control and can destabilize Israeli border.