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I was shocked to learn that most Westerners (especially Americans) believe that sanctions actually worked. Most believe that SWIFT was cut for Russian banks (m

I was shocked to learn that most Westerners (especially Americans) believe that sanctions actually worked. Most believe that SWIFT was cut for Russian banks (most are working fine). That you can't buy USD in Russia (it's absolutely available both in banks and on the street, actually there's overabundance of hard currency due to gas and oil prices). Yes, McDonald's took down its logo. But it's already opening under new name with same operations and franchise intact. Yes, no official iPhones. So what, ruble is so strong now it's hard to feel a thing, you can get them via Kazakhstan or Dubai. Americans bought Biden's "crushing sanctions" rhethoric and cheap pledges of "support" to Ukraine and looked the other way.

FpUser 4y ago
McDonald's and iPhones and other branded crap are not strategic. Who really gives a fuck about their existence. Russians could always get cheaper Android phone from China and do just fine. They would not loose their sleep over McBurger being replaced with something else either. Ability to produce advanced microchips, high end machinery etc on the other hand is. When the existing stock (all bought from the West) is depleted / wears down Russia might start to really feel the sanctions. This has a chance of permanently damaging Russia. If however over the time Russia can manage to restart the ability to manufacture those things (possibly by banding with non Western world initially) then yes - it could then show middle finger to the West and get on with its business.
- lotusmars 4y ago
  Putin's bet seems to be that sanctions will erode and be lifted before microchip, oil technology embargo actually hits Russian economy. Medvedev explicitly said this two days before invasion. Yes, Western reaction will be loud but short-lived. Once European customer will feel prices hike or refugee influx, governments will be under immense preasure to resolve conflict ASAP. This is martial arts 101, which Putin seems to be a big fan of. You engage with opponent, lock with them and apply pain on any possible surface until they submit and let go. North African instability and revolts due to widespread hunger is yet another ankle that he can twist in this lock. Another one is Syria which is under his control and can destabilize Israeli border.
stefan_ 4y ago
Try to board a plane to Moscow then?
- lotusmars 4y ago
  Actually a lot of Moscow tech workers came back after fleeing initialy to Yerevan, Tbilisi, Baku and Istanbul. Most bought Bloomberg propaganda and were expecting a crash. It never came. On the other hand Moscow feels great, restaurants are packed and most of people I know are back to their consumerist habits (sans some Western clothing brands). Russian consumer exhaled and watches Ukrainian war like a soap opera on Telegram that they discuss with coworkers or on Patriarchy Ponds. Nobody will learn a lesson.
  - stefan_ 4y ago
    I don't understand, please read the comment, do not just press "next 100 words" on a Markov chain.
    - lotusmars 4y ago
      I don't know what reply did you expect me to give to "try to board a plane to Moscow then".
    - strombofulous 4y ago
      Which part is confusing, it made sense to me

FpUser 4y ago

McDonald's and iPhones and other branded crap are not strategic. Who really gives a fuck about their existence. Russians could always get cheaper Android phone from China and do just fine. They would not loose their sleep over McBurger being replaced with something else either. Ability to produce advanced microchips, high end machinery etc on the other hand is. When the existing stock (all bought from the West) is depleted / wears down Russia might start to really feel the sanctions. This has a chance of permanently damaging Russia. If however over the time Russia can manage to restart the ability to manufacture those things (possibly by banding with non Western world initially) then yes - it could then show middle finger to the West and get on with its business.

lotusmars 4y ago
Putin's bet seems to be that sanctions will erode and be lifted before microchip, oil technology embargo actually hits Russian economy. Medvedev explicitly said this two days before invasion. Yes, Western reaction will be loud but short-lived. Once European customer will feel prices hike or refugee influx, governments will be under immense preasure to resolve conflict ASAP. This is martial arts 101, which Putin seems to be a big fan of. You engage with opponent, lock with them and apply pain on any possible surface until they submit and let go. North African instability and revolts due to widespread hunger is yet another ankle that he can twist in this lock. Another one is Syria which is under his control and can destabilize Israeli border.

stefan_ 4y ago

Try to board a plane to Moscow then?

lotusmars 4y ago
Actually a lot of Moscow tech workers came back after fleeing initialy to Yerevan, Tbilisi, Baku and Istanbul. Most bought Bloomberg propaganda and were expecting a crash. It never came. On the other hand Moscow feels great, restaurants are packed and most of people I know are back to their consumerist habits (sans some Western clothing brands). Russian consumer exhaled and watches Ukrainian war like a soap opera on Telegram that they discuss with coworkers or on Patriarchy Ponds. Nobody will learn a lesson.
- stefan_ 4y ago
  I don't understand, please read the comment, do not just press "next 100 words" on a Markov chain.
  - lotusmars 4y ago
    I don't know what reply did you expect me to give to "try to board a plane to Moscow then".
  - strombofulous 4y ago
    Which part is confusing, it made sense to me