4 ms·

Wow I didn't realize the ruble has been strengthening despite the sanctions, but it is true.[1] 1: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M https

by aftbit 4y ago

Wow I didn't realize the ruble has been strengthening despite the sanctions, but it is true.[1] 1: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M

lotusmars 4y ago
I was shocked to learn that most Westerners (especially Americans) believe that sanctions actually worked. Most believe that SWIFT was cut for Russian banks (most are working fine). That you can't buy USD in Russia (it's absolutely available both in banks and on the street, actually there's overabundance of hard currency due to gas and oil prices). Yes, McDonald's took down its logo. But it's already opening under new name with same operations and franchise intact. Yes, no official iPhones. So what, ruble is so strong now it's hard to feel a thing, you can get them via Kazakhstan or Dubai. Americans bought Biden's "crushing sanctions" rhethoric and cheap pledges of "support" to Ukraine and looked the other way.
- FpUser 4y ago
  McDonald's and iPhones and other branded crap are not strategic. Who really gives a fuck about their existence. Russians could always get cheaper Android phone from China and do just fine. They would not loose their sleep over McBurger being replaced with something else either. Ability to produce advanced microchips, high end machinery etc on the other hand is. When the existing stock (all bought from the West) is depleted / wears down Russia might start to really feel the sanctions. This has a chance of permanently damaging Russia. If however over the time Russia can manage to restart the ability to manufacture those things (possibly by banding with non Western world initially) then yes - it could then show middle finger to the West and get on with its business.
  - lotusmars 4y ago
    Putin's bet seems to be that sanctions will erode and be lifted before microchip, oil technology embargo actually hits Russian economy. Medvedev explicitly said this two days before invasion. Yes, Western reaction will be loud but short-lived. Once European customer will feel prices hike or refugee influx, governments will be under immense preasure to resolve conflict ASAP. This is martial arts 101, which Putin seems to be a big fan of. You engage with opponent, lock with them and apply pain on any possible surface until they submit and let go. North African instability and revolts due to widespread hunger is yet another ankle that he can twist in this lock. Another one is Syria which is under his control and can destabilize Israeli border.
- stefan_ 4y ago
  Try to board a plane to Moscow then?
  - lotusmars 4y ago
    Actually a lot of Moscow tech workers came back after fleeing initialy to Yerevan, Tbilisi, Baku and Istanbul. Most bought Bloomberg propaganda and were expecting a crash. It never came. On the other hand Moscow feels great, restaurants are packed and most of people I know are back to their consumerist habits (sans some Western clothing brands). Russian consumer exhaled and watches Ukrainian war like a soap opera on Telegram that they discuss with coworkers or on Patriarchy Ponds. Nobody will learn a lesson.
    - stefan_ 4y ago
      I don't understand, please read the comment, do not just press "next 100 words" on a Markov chain.
      - lotusmars 4y ago
        I don't know what reply did you expect me to give to "try to board a plane to Moscow then".
      - strombofulous 4y ago
        Which part is confusing, it made sense to me
throwaway5752 4y ago
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how...
- lotusmars 4y ago
  Important to note that this article is alread almost two months old. Since then there was even more recovery. Interest rates while spiked briefly to 20% now lowered. There was a brief capital control but now it's not neccessary: ordinary Russians can withdraw their dollars and even send them abroad (up to $50000 per month). You don't need any kind of special financial magic when you've got billions from gas.
XorNot 4y ago
The Russian government has extremely limited avenues to trade Rubles publicly, and exercises dictatorial control over those within its borders who attempt to do so. The rate is essentially fictional - you theoretical seller, cannot get that rate. [1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-rouble-rebound-not-quite-what-it-seems-2022-04-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-rouble-rebo...
- guerrilla 4y ago
  That article is really outdated (from before Russia forced payment in rubles), many capital controls were lifted, foreign exchange is allowed up to a limit. I've seen people still making the claim but much more of the opposite. A lot of people on Bloomberg have contradicted precisely this on air. Most of the evidence in the two month old article is anecdotal and unsourced anyway.
onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
They have an 18.5% interest rate compared to 0% in EU, and compared to ~5% in Russia pre-war. If not for an absurdly high interest rate and capital controls - the Ruble would not be doing well.
- lotusmars 4y ago
  11%. Slashed three days ago from 14%. It will be back to single-digits pretty soon. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/business/russia-economy-ruble-interest-rates/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/business/russia-economy-r...
  - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
    We'll see how that goes when their oil exports drop from 7.8M to 4.3M - and their natural gas exports decline similarly. That's ~15% of the economy. Russia itself is predicting that the unemployment rate will double to 9%. That's about the highest unemployment has gone in Western countries at the absolute peak of recessions. The idea that the Russian economy is doing well or better than pre-war is absurd. There's more to an economy than the value of your currency which governments and central banks have a lot of power to easily manipulate.
- gruez 4y ago
  >If not for an absurdly high interest rate and capital controls It also helps that imports are also way down (due to sanctions/boycotts) but exports are slightly up (due to increased oil prices).
symlinkk 4y ago
Comments like this are incredibly useful. A simple statement, backed up by a link with graph that verifies it. I’m not being sarcastic, I know it kind of reads that way. Comments like this teach me more about the world than 1,000 word rambling news articles.

by aftbit 4y ago

lotusmars 4y ago

I was shocked to learn that most Westerners (especially Americans) believe that sanctions actually worked. Most believe that SWIFT was cut for Russian banks (most are working fine). That you can't buy USD in Russia (it's absolutely available both in banks and on the street, actually there's overabundance of hard currency due to gas and oil prices). Yes, McDonald's took down its logo. But it's already opening under new name with same operations and franchise intact. Yes, no official iPhones. So what, ruble is so strong now it's hard to feel a thing, you can get them via Kazakhstan or Dubai. Americans bought Biden's "crushing sanctions" rhethoric and cheap pledges of "support" to Ukraine and looked the other way.

FpUser 4y ago
McDonald's and iPhones and other branded crap are not strategic. Who really gives a fuck about their existence. Russians could always get cheaper Android phone from China and do just fine. They would not loose their sleep over McBurger being replaced with something else either. Ability to produce advanced microchips, high end machinery etc on the other hand is. When the existing stock (all bought from the West) is depleted / wears down Russia might start to really feel the sanctions. This has a chance of permanently damaging Russia. If however over the time Russia can manage to restart the ability to manufacture those things (possibly by banding with non Western world initially) then yes - it could then show middle finger to the West and get on with its business.
- lotusmars 4y ago
  Putin's bet seems to be that sanctions will erode and be lifted before microchip, oil technology embargo actually hits Russian economy. Medvedev explicitly said this two days before invasion. Yes, Western reaction will be loud but short-lived. Once European customer will feel prices hike or refugee influx, governments will be under immense preasure to resolve conflict ASAP. This is martial arts 101, which Putin seems to be a big fan of. You engage with opponent, lock with them and apply pain on any possible surface until they submit and let go. North African instability and revolts due to widespread hunger is yet another ankle that he can twist in this lock. Another one is Syria which is under his control and can destabilize Israeli border.
stefan_ 4y ago
Try to board a plane to Moscow then?
- lotusmars 4y ago
  Actually a lot of Moscow tech workers came back after fleeing initialy to Yerevan, Tbilisi, Baku and Istanbul. Most bought Bloomberg propaganda and were expecting a crash. It never came. On the other hand Moscow feels great, restaurants are packed and most of people I know are back to their consumerist habits (sans some Western clothing brands). Russian consumer exhaled and watches Ukrainian war like a soap opera on Telegram that they discuss with coworkers or on Patriarchy Ponds. Nobody will learn a lesson.
  - stefan_ 4y ago
    I don't understand, please read the comment, do not just press "next 100 words" on a Markov chain.
    - lotusmars 4y ago
      I don't know what reply did you expect me to give to "try to board a plane to Moscow then".
    - strombofulous 4y ago
      Which part is confusing, it made sense to me

throwaway5752 4y ago

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how...

lotusmars 4y ago
Important to note that this article is alread almost two months old. Since then there was even more recovery. Interest rates while spiked briefly to 20% now lowered. There was a brief capital control but now it's not neccessary: ordinary Russians can withdraw their dollars and even send them abroad (up to $50000 per month). You don't need any kind of special financial magic when you've got billions from gas.

XorNot 4y ago

The Russian government has extremely limited avenues to trade Rubles publicly, and exercises dictatorial control over those within its borders who attempt to do so. The rate is essentially fictional - you theoretical seller, cannot get that rate. [1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-rouble-rebound-not-quite-what-it-seems-2022-04-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-rouble-rebo...

guerrilla 4y ago
That article is really outdated (from before Russia forced payment in rubles), many capital controls were lifted, foreign exchange is allowed up to a limit. I've seen people still making the claim but much more of the opposite. A lot of people on Bloomberg have contradicted precisely this on air. Most of the evidence in the two month old article is anecdotal and unsourced anyway.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago

They have an 18.5% interest rate compared to 0% in EU, and compared to ~5% in Russia pre-war. If not for an absurdly high interest rate and capital controls - the Ruble would not be doing well.

lotusmars 4y ago
11%. Slashed three days ago from 14%. It will be back to single-digits pretty soon. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/business/russia-economy-ruble-interest-rates/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/business/russia-economy-r...
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  We'll see how that goes when their oil exports drop from 7.8M to 4.3M - and their natural gas exports decline similarly. That's ~15% of the economy. Russia itself is predicting that the unemployment rate will double to 9%. That's about the highest unemployment has gone in Western countries at the absolute peak of recessions. The idea that the Russian economy is doing well or better than pre-war is absurd. There's more to an economy than the value of your currency which governments and central banks have a lot of power to easily manipulate.
gruez 4y ago
>If not for an absurdly high interest rate and capital controls It also helps that imports are also way down (due to sanctions/boycotts) but exports are slightly up (due to increased oil prices).

symlinkk 4y ago

Comments like this are incredibly useful. A simple statement, backed up by a link with graph that verifies it. I’m not being sarcastic, I know it kind of reads that way. Comments like this teach me more about the world than 1,000 word rambling news articles.