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I have a very hard time reasoning about this stuff. It seems to me the current choices, dictated by culture, capital, and economics, are a) grow or b) decline.

I have a very hard time reasoning about this stuff. It seems to me the current choices, dictated by culture, capital, and economics, are a) grow or b) decline. Is a steady state possible? Can a cobbler, independent farmer, carpet cleaning service, or whatever, do their thing for 40+ years? I don't know. Certainly not if they accept outside investment capital, where the lender is expecting an ever greater return on their investment. Certainly not if when there are predators. eg "Your margin is my opportunity" -- Jeff Bezos Certainly not if your gig is mooted by technological progress. Examples of successful steady state ventures would help me (us) think through these issues. But I'm struggling to think of some. Residential plumber (and similar trades)? Automobile mechanic?

softcactus 4y ago
I think that's the big question isn't it? We're now at a point in human history where a few percentage points of annual growth, when compounded, can lead us into an extinction event/societal collapse. The big question of the 21st century is how long can this continue before we have to hit the brakes? The closest thing I can think of is small family-owned ventures. Or on a larger scale perhaps the Cuban cigar industry? It remains labor intensive and is locked to a specific region which means growth prospects are limited. It also exists under a socialist regime so there's no incentive for growth.
- edzillion 4y ago
  Doesn't Japan have a tradition of long surviving privately held companies? Perhaps there are some lessons there > Back in 2008, a Bank of Korea report found that of 5,586 companies older than 200 years in 41 countries, 56% of them were in Japan. In 2019, there were over 33,000 businesses in Japan over a century old, according to research firm Teikoku Data Bank. The oldest hotel in the world has been open since 705 in Yamanashi and confectioner Ichimonjiya Wasuke has been selling sweet treats in Kyoto since 1000. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200211-why-are-so-many-old-companies-in-japan https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200211-why-are-so-man... I've often wondered why Japan seems to maintain a culture of high quality artisinal work when the rest of the world is trending toward cheaper, lower quality mass produced goods. Perhaps these are related.
  - softcactus 4y ago
    I am not sure. I think that while there are concepts like Kaizen that stress improving efficiency, Japanese businesses don't necessarily optimize for profit as ruthlessly as US companies. They can probably do this due to less disruptive entrepreneurship in Japan + massive conglomerates with no competition. For example there is a video series of workers in Japan-- the titles are usually like "Daily Life of an X in Japan" and workers are often doing things in their downtime like cleaning the office, detailing the delivery trucks, power washing the sidewalks in front of the business, etc. In the US these practices would be seen as wasteful and would either be ignored, contracted out, or have a dedicated employee to do the work. Unfortunately the Japanese model has its own shortcomings, but maybe there is a hybrid option that could benefit everyone.

softcactus 4y ago

I think that's the big question isn't it? We're now at a point in human history where a few percentage points of annual growth, when compounded, can lead us into an extinction event/societal collapse. The big question of the 21st century is how long can this continue before we have to hit the brakes? The closest thing I can think of is small family-owned ventures. Or on a larger scale perhaps the Cuban cigar industry? It remains labor intensive and is locked to a specific region which means growth prospects are limited. It also exists under a socialist regime so there's no incentive for growth.

edzillion 4y ago
Doesn't Japan have a tradition of long surviving privately held companies? Perhaps there are some lessons there > Back in 2008, a Bank of Korea report found that of 5,586 companies older than 200 years in 41 countries, 56% of them were in Japan. In 2019, there were over 33,000 businesses in Japan over a century old, according to research firm Teikoku Data Bank. The oldest hotel in the world has been open since 705 in Yamanashi and confectioner Ichimonjiya Wasuke has been selling sweet treats in Kyoto since 1000. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200211-why-are-so-many-old-companies-in-japan https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200211-why-are-so-man... I've often wondered why Japan seems to maintain a culture of high quality artisinal work when the rest of the world is trending toward cheaper, lower quality mass produced goods. Perhaps these are related.
- softcactus 4y ago
  I am not sure. I think that while there are concepts like Kaizen that stress improving efficiency, Japanese businesses don't necessarily optimize for profit as ruthlessly as US companies. They can probably do this due to less disruptive entrepreneurship in Japan + massive conglomerates with no competition. For example there is a video series of workers in Japan-- the titles are usually like "Daily Life of an X in Japan" and workers are often doing things in their downtime like cleaning the office, detailing the delivery trucks, power washing the sidewalks in front of the business, etc. In the US these practices would be seen as wasteful and would either be ignored, contracted out, or have a dedicated employee to do the work. Unfortunately the Japanese model has its own shortcomings, but maybe there is a hybrid option that could benefit everyone.