You’ve missed out a lot of numbers here. Soyuz is a bad example because it doesn’t matter how ‘cheap’ it is, it isn’t reusable. If they can built a second stag

You’ve missed out a lot of numbers here. Soyuz is a bad example because it doesn’t matter how ‘cheap’ it is, it isn’t reusable. If they can built a second stage for $13m, $2m for fuel and refurb (musk has previously said marginal cost for a relaunch is $15m) you’ve got marginal costs per terminal assuming 50 per launch of $300k, and terminals are somewhere between 250-500k (Shotwell said in 2019 they were below 500k ‘already’). So I’m going to go with 600k cost to orbit for a single satellite. There’s ~2,400 in orbit currently, so rough capital outlay so far is $1.44Bn Income at 528M means they’re closing hard on some sort of model but yea that 2-4x figure looks good-ish