I didn't list "always succeeds" as a standard for rationality. I said, "chances they say are fifty-fifty turn out like they expected fifty percent of the time."

I didn't list "always succeeds" as a standard for rationality. I said, "chances they say are fifty-fifty turn out like they expected fifty percent of the time." If someone ascribes an 80% chance to each of 1000 possible events, and 800 of them happen, they are almost certainly rational.