3 ms·
Waiting to hear what the gain-of-function research advocates are going to say about this (they've rather gone silent since Sars-CoV2 spread around the world).
by photochemsyn 4y ago
Waiting to hear what the gain-of-function research advocates are going to say about this (they've rather gone silent since Sars-CoV2 spread around the world). Should we be using CRISPR to modify different sections of the monkeypox genome to see if we can create as many different variants as possible so we can identify those that rapidly jump from human to human? The argument is, then we would know what to look for if we found it, because we'd have a better idea of which specific regions of the genome are involved in transmissibility...
Specious reasoning at best. The more likely result would be that a laboratory worker would get infected with such a highly-transmissible modified monkeypox, leave the lab, spread it into their local community, and from there modern transportation technology (planes, trains, automobiles, etc.) would ensure rapid spread around the world. This is not a conspiracy theory, just a rational risk assessment (and is now the most likely theory of the origin of Covid-19, like it or not).
Here's the latest scientific research on monkeypox as of 2020, from researchers based in Africa, it's up on sci-hub.se for those who want to read it, and is also a good overview:
Alakunle, E., Moens, U., Nchinda, G., & Okeke, M. I. (2020). Monkeypox Virus in Nigeria: Infection Biology, Epidemiology, and Evolution. Viruses, 12(11), 1257.
Respiratory droplets and contact with body fluids, contaminated patient’s environment or items, skin lesion of an infected person have been found to be associated with inter-human transmission. Congo Basin clade (Central Africa clade) is reported to be more virulent than West Africa clade and thereby contributes more to inter-human transmission.
The West Africa clade is apparently the one involved in this outbreak.
- matthewdgreen 4y agoI don’t have any dog in this fight, but one of the points made in this article is that we don’t really understand the Monkeypox genome well enough to know which mutations might lead to greater spread or virulence. So when a new cluster pops up we can’t tell if it’s spreading due to a mutation or if it will have a greater IFR than we expect from past outbreaks. I’m not saying GoF is the right solution to this, given the risks. But it is probably one way to gather this sort of data.
- photochemsyn 4y agoThe counterpoint to that argument is that there very well could be hundreds of artificially induced mutations that could give rise to extremely virulent or extremely transmissible strains, and yet that's not proof that such mutations would be at all likely to arise under natural conditions in the wild.
- matthewdgreen 4y agoWe have some very solid examples of independently-arising mutations in SARS-CoV-2. In fact quite a few of the Omicron mutations had been seen in other lab variants.
- sva_ 4y ago> and is now the most likely theory of the origin of Covid-19, like it or not According to whom, if I may ask? It appeared to me that we know just as much about it as 2 years ago. That is to say, you can't assign a probability because there isn't really any data. But I didn't keep up with it, so I'm not sure.