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Makes one wonder if Tesla's best days are in the past. Ford is now shipping an EV version of the best-selling vehicle of all time, with familiar form factor +

Makes one wonder if Tesla's best days are in the past. Ford is now shipping an EV version of the best-selling vehicle of all time, with familiar form factor + competitive price + highly desirable features not available on the gas model. Waymo and GM are kinda-shipping robotaxis that are operating on public roads in major cities, today, without anyone in the driver's seat. Meanwhile, Tesla is the laughing stock of the AV industry. Even if the Cybertruck is delivered in 2023, how can it possibly compete?

Dunedan 4y ago
> Makes one wonder if Tesla's best days are in the past. Their days of biggest EV market share? Probably. Their best days however? I doubt that. Compared to other car manufacturers Tesla currently has the following advantages: - multiple years of technical lead (giga casting, structural battery pack, 4680 cells, ...) - no corporate debt - way better gross margins - much higher production numbers - a supply chain which is already able to support their high production numbers > Even if the Cybertruck is delivered in 2023, how can it possibly compete? All car manufacturers are currently supply constraint when it comes to EVs and I believe that'll still be the case for a few years going forward. While supply already increases, demand seems to increase even more, based on the lead times when buying a new EV. In such a situation every manufacturer will be able to sell every EV vehicle it can produce without having to worry about what their competitors are doing. Once we reach the point that there is more supply than demand, Tesla can easily lower their prices thanks to their high gross margins to a point where other manufacturers can't compete by price anymore. Once that happens I expect some car manufacturers to go bankrupt, leaving Tesla in an even better position than before.
- paulmendoza 4y ago
  You understand
- hitovst 4y ago
  I think it is to Tesla's long term advantage that they don't seem to constrain themselves to the norm. Despite the ridicule, there is a reason why Teslas are shaped the way that they are. I think that their willingness to offer an optimal design, regardless of familiarity, will mean that they're known for superior range and performance.. and I think a year or two after Cybertrucks have been in the wild, the stainless steel body will prove to be valuable. Having said that, I think it is probably a good move by Ford to essentially fit the 150 as an EV, and keep the minimum price point. Over the long term, it may be that Tesla's designs are optimal, but in the short term, Ford is offering a popular design as an EV, which should be immediately accepted, and get them in the EV market. The one thing that struck me as a possible issue with Ford's customers is the embracing of the two way charging, and the selling of Lightning as a backup battery for the home. While it is possible, it may not be a very good idea outside of an emergency situation, and could lead to disappointment in the battery life.
dharmab 4y ago
The best selling vehicle of all-time is the Honda Cub. The best selling four wheeled vehicle of all time is the Toyota Corolla (or the Volkswagen Beetle if you don't count multiple generations of a car).
mwint 4y ago
Where are these GM robotaxis? Last I checked they were showing Sandy Munroe tech that disengaged on “tight curves” on the interstate.
- AlotOfReading 4y ago
  GP is referring to the stuff Cruise is running in SF and Phoenix. It doesn't operate on interstates and never has.
- SheinhardtWigCo 4y ago
  Currently in low-traffic SF neighborhoods between 10pm and 6am. https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/news-and-updates/all-news/cpuc-issues-proposal-to-authorize-first-deployment-of-driverless-av-passenger-service https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/news-and-updates/all-news/cpuc-issue...
gregjor 4y ago
This is what can happen when a company promises things it can do, delivers what it promises, and doesn’t have a CEO addicted to Twitter.
grecy 4y ago
Ford is targeting production of 2m EVs by 2026 which Tesla will probably exceed in 2023. For the F-150 Lightning, they're aiming to build 150,000 per year, which is virtually nothing. [1] GM is targeting 1m EVs by 2025 which Tesla did in 2021. Honda and Toyota are barely even trying. Kia is publicly targeting 500k cars by 2026 so they won't be competitive. Hyundai is targeting ~1.9M EVs by 2030 which is a number Tesla will eclipse next year. VW has stated they will overtake Tesla by 2025, but barring some magical construction capabilities that allow them to build factories in absolute lightning speed they also will not have the capacity to overtake Tesla. So at this point it doesn't really matter what any other manufacturer builds, they're simply not building enough of them. That is not evening mentioning Tesla's massive lead with thousands and thousands of charging points. Who is going to catch up to that? [1] https://www.autoevolution.com/news/ford-explains-how-it-will-reach-150000-f-150-lightning-per-year-178449.html https://www.autoevolution.com/news/ford-explains-how-it-will...
- ohgodplsno 4y ago
  So, what you're saying is that in a few years, Tesla will be, at best, only 30% of the EV market, as opposed to pretty much 100% these days ? And that they'll be fighting against actual constructors that know how to make cars without flimsy plastic panels that wiggle ? And that all these cars are of higher build quality and equal or better than a Model 3 that starts at $50k, while they'll all be cheaper ? And that all these companies have existing factories and repair shops all over the US, Europe and other countries, as opposed to Tesla who's spent their time propping up their stock price and not building anything ? Yeah, no. It's not looking good for Tesla.
  - mwint 4y ago
    Man, if they had been building stuff instead of propping up their stock price they could have done crazy stuff. They could have built a factory in Texas bigger than the Pentagon by now. Oh well, too bad they’re not building stuff.
- Avshalom 4y ago
  I mean anyone can catch up. It's not like Tesla sells 1 million this year, and then 2M in 2023...256M in 2030. Volkswagen, the whole group, not just the specific marque, sells ~10million cars a year. Manufacturing isn't trivial or anything but there's a ceiling above which marketing/sales becomes the limiter.
7952 4y ago
It is still an incredibly effective brand from a marketing perspective and that can sell vehicles.

Dunedan 4y ago

> Makes one wonder if Tesla's best days are in the past. Their days of biggest EV market share? Probably. Their best days however? I doubt that. Compared to other car manufacturers Tesla currently has the following advantages: - multiple years of technical lead (giga casting, structural battery pack, 4680 cells, ...) - no corporate debt - way better gross margins - much higher production numbers - a supply chain which is already able to support their high production numbers > Even if the Cybertruck is delivered in 2023, how can it possibly compete? All car manufacturers are currently supply constraint when it comes to EVs and I believe that'll still be the case for a few years going forward. While supply already increases, demand seems to increase even more, based on the lead times when buying a new EV. In such a situation every manufacturer will be able to sell every EV vehicle it can produce without having to worry about what their competitors are doing. Once we reach the point that there is more supply than demand, Tesla can easily lower their prices thanks to their high gross margins to a point where other manufacturers can't compete by price anymore. Once that happens I expect some car manufacturers to go bankrupt, leaving Tesla in an even better position than before.

paulmendoza 4y ago
You understand
hitovst 4y ago
I think it is to Tesla's long term advantage that they don't seem to constrain themselves to the norm. Despite the ridicule, there is a reason why Teslas are shaped the way that they are. I think that their willingness to offer an optimal design, regardless of familiarity, will mean that they're known for superior range and performance.. and I think a year or two after Cybertrucks have been in the wild, the stainless steel body will prove to be valuable. Having said that, I think it is probably a good move by Ford to essentially fit the 150 as an EV, and keep the minimum price point. Over the long term, it may be that Tesla's designs are optimal, but in the short term, Ford is offering a popular design as an EV, which should be immediately accepted, and get them in the EV market. The one thing that struck me as a possible issue with Ford's customers is the embracing of the two way charging, and the selling of Lightning as a backup battery for the home. While it is possible, it may not be a very good idea outside of an emergency situation, and could lead to disappointment in the battery life.

dharmab 4y ago

The best selling vehicle of all-time is the Honda Cub. The best selling four wheeled vehicle of all time is the Toyota Corolla (or the Volkswagen Beetle if you don't count multiple generations of a car).

mwint 4y ago

Where are these GM robotaxis? Last I checked they were showing Sandy Munroe tech that disengaged on “tight curves” on the interstate.

AlotOfReading 4y ago
GP is referring to the stuff Cruise is running in SF and Phoenix. It doesn't operate on interstates and never has.
SheinhardtWigCo 4y ago
Currently in low-traffic SF neighborhoods between 10pm and 6am. https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/news-and-updates/all-news/cpuc-issues-proposal-to-authorize-first-deployment-of-driverless-av-passenger-service https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/news-and-updates/all-news/cpuc-issue...

gregjor 4y ago

This is what can happen when a company promises things it can do, delivers what it promises, and doesn’t have a CEO addicted to Twitter.

grecy 4y ago

Ford is targeting production of 2m EVs by 2026 which Tesla will probably exceed in 2023. For the F-150 Lightning, they're aiming to build 150,000 per year, which is virtually nothing. [1] GM is targeting 1m EVs by 2025 which Tesla did in 2021. Honda and Toyota are barely even trying. Kia is publicly targeting 500k cars by 2026 so they won't be competitive. Hyundai is targeting ~1.9M EVs by 2030 which is a number Tesla will eclipse next year. VW has stated they will overtake Tesla by 2025, but barring some magical construction capabilities that allow them to build factories in absolute lightning speed they also will not have the capacity to overtake Tesla. So at this point it doesn't really matter what any other manufacturer builds, they're simply not building enough of them. That is not evening mentioning Tesla's massive lead with thousands and thousands of charging points. Who is going to catch up to that? [1] https://www.autoevolution.com/news/ford-explains-how-it-will-reach-150000-f-150-lightning-per-year-178449.html https://www.autoevolution.com/news/ford-explains-how-it-will...

ohgodplsno 4y ago
So, what you're saying is that in a few years, Tesla will be, at best, only 30% of the EV market, as opposed to pretty much 100% these days ? And that they'll be fighting against actual constructors that know how to make cars without flimsy plastic panels that wiggle ? And that all these cars are of higher build quality and equal or better than a Model 3 that starts at $50k, while they'll all be cheaper ? And that all these companies have existing factories and repair shops all over the US, Europe and other countries, as opposed to Tesla who's spent their time propping up their stock price and not building anything ? Yeah, no. It's not looking good for Tesla.
- mwint 4y ago
  Man, if they had been building stuff instead of propping up their stock price they could have done crazy stuff. They could have built a factory in Texas bigger than the Pentagon by now. Oh well, too bad they’re not building stuff.
Avshalom 4y ago
I mean anyone can catch up. It's not like Tesla sells 1 million this year, and then 2M in 2023...256M in 2030. Volkswagen, the whole group, not just the specific marque, sells ~10million cars a year. Manufacturing isn't trivial or anything but there's a ceiling above which marketing/sales becomes the limiter.

7952 4y ago

It is still an incredibly effective brand from a marketing perspective and that can sell vehicles.