4 ms·
This makes a common error in the direction of a causal arrow: Technological progress is the result of ready access to fossil fuels. That is it is the result of
by philipkglass 4y ago
This makes a common error in the direction of a causal arrow:
Technological progress is the result of ready access to fossil fuels. That is it is the result of our prosperity not it's cause.
I have also read Smil's Energy and Civilization and I have to disagree on the causal arrow direction.
Coal formed ~300 million years ago [1]. Anatomically modern humans have existed for more than 200,000 years [2]. Complex city-forming civilizations have existed for more than 5,000 years [3].
Chapter 6 of Energy and Civilization shows the dramatic shift in recent centuries: consumption of coal and later other fossil fuels underwent explosive growth only after the 18th century. This even though coal and oil were known to people thousands of years ago [4] [5]. Since people, fossil fuels, and civilization have existed in conjunction for several thousands of years, but usage of fossil fuels has become significant only in recent centuries, I believe that technological development is the proximate cause of fossil fuel usage. Once the early Industrial Revolution got under way it formed a feedback loop where technological exploitation of energy resources drove further technological development and energy exploitation. The early, inefficient Newcomen steam engine is a good example of this loop in action: its first successful application was in pumping water out of coal mines, to make more coal accessible [6].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carboniferous https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carboniferous
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_modern_human https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_modern_human
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_history#Rise_of_civilization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_history#Rise_of_civiliza...
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coal_mining#Early_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coal_mining#Early_h...
[5] https://connect.spe.org/blogs/donatien-ishimwe/2014/09/18/history-of-world-petroleum-industry https://connect.spe.org/blogs/donatien-ishimwe/2014/09/18/hi...
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomen_atmospheric_engine#Introduction_and_spread https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomen_atmospheric_engine#In...