4 ms·

in countries that avoided hugely disruptive lockdowns the excess mortality barely moved at all. Sweden, a noteable example because the media attacked them for a

by toolz 4y ago

in countries that avoided hugely disruptive lockdowns the excess mortality barely moved at all. Sweden, a noteable example because the media attacked them for a year, was the worst faring non-lockdown country in the world and they still don't even break top 30 countries excess deaths during covid. Not only that, but in 2021 sweden had the lowest excess mortality in the entirety of Europe. So let's not pretend the math is simple here. Social disruption is lethal to vulnerable demographics. Even daylight savings time changes notoriously cause a large surge in heart attacks.

DennisP 4y ago
Ok. And how many covid deaths did they report? Was it also low, or did they report lots of covid deaths while their overall death rate magically stayed the same? Only the latter fits your "death with covid" scenario. In the US, it seems rather unlikely that (a) doctors all over the US report a certain number of deaths that they say were caused by covid, and (b) we have about that many excess deaths, BUT (c) the excess deaths were from other causes and just happened to match the number of reported covid deaths.
- notahacker 4y ago
  Excess deaths which align with reported deaths with COVID not just in aggregate numbers, but in spikes. Spikes which also postdate spikes in infection by the roughly 30 days from infection to death observed in acute COVID patients (but don't align at all well with other things like lockdowns and economic downturns) People die with cancer too, but few people are quite perverse enough to take that as evidence that the threat posed by cancer is exaggerated. Possibly the only comparable level of denial about the causal relationship between a well known ailment and people who don't normally die being likely to die afterwards for reasons well-explained by how that ailment affects the body I can think of is HIV/AIDs, and it's not coincidental that one's highly politicised too.
qbasic_forever 4y ago
Your view of what happened in Sweden does not match the reality that their approach to COVID-19 caused excessive death and suffering: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5 Compared to the other nordic countries nextdoor to them Sweden had more death and worse outcomes overall.
- toolz 4y ago
  you mean the neighboring countries that objectively had similar (or even lower) restrictions than sweden? The countries like norway, finland and denmark that got labeled as "strict lockdown" countries only because it was politically expendient? You mean those neighbors? https://i.imgur.com/bjWZS81.png https://i.imgur.com/bjWZS81.png https://ourworldindata.org/covid-stringency-index https://ourworldindata.org/covid-stringency-index oh and here are some excess deaths you can compare across norway sweden and denmark - the difference is negligible - and this image doesn't even include 2021 where sweden had literally the lowest excess death in europe https://preview.redd.it/u8etorcogu451.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=292ff6119bf707128e794771bd890414d96ad78e https://preview.redd.it/u8etorcogu451.png?width=756&format=p...
  - seizethegdgap 4y ago
    Your stringency argument falls flat on its face when the source for your argument skips the first 24 months of the pandemic. That same timeframe was when the variants were much more lethal, and the vaccine didn't exist for the first 12 months. Your excess deaths chart shows Sweden's rising by 5,000 people from 2019 to 2020, while Norway and Denmark's fell. This image (https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0168851021002220-gr1.jpg https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S01688510210022...) from this study (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851021002220 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016885102...) is a direct refutation of your argument.
    - toolz 4y ago
      Ah, it's been a while since I looked at that chart, didn't realize they had pruned the data to 2022, which is _not_ how long the stringency index measured, which you would know if you had spent any time researching this category study as the oxford stringency index is by _far_ the most cited and utilized index of covid policy. If you actually care about the subject feel free to look it up yourself, don't take my word for it as the measurements are all open source on github, including the methodology used to calculate the index.
  - deleted 4y ago

by toolz 4y ago

DennisP 4y ago

Ok. And how many covid deaths did they report? Was it also low, or did they report lots of covid deaths while their overall death rate magically stayed the same? Only the latter fits your "death with covid" scenario. In the US, it seems rather unlikely that (a) doctors all over the US report a certain number of deaths that they say were caused by covid, and (b) we have about that many excess deaths, BUT (c) the excess deaths were from other causes and just happened to match the number of reported covid deaths.

notahacker 4y ago
Excess deaths which align with reported deaths with COVID not just in aggregate numbers, but in spikes. Spikes which also postdate spikes in infection by the roughly 30 days from infection to death observed in acute COVID patients (but don't align at all well with other things like lockdowns and economic downturns) People die with cancer too, but few people are quite perverse enough to take that as evidence that the threat posed by cancer is exaggerated. Possibly the only comparable level of denial about the causal relationship between a well known ailment and people who don't normally die being likely to die afterwards for reasons well-explained by how that ailment affects the body I can think of is HIV/AIDs, and it's not coincidental that one's highly politicised too.

qbasic_forever 4y ago

Your view of what happened in Sweden does not match the reality that their approach to COVID-19 caused excessive death and suffering: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5 Compared to the other nordic countries nextdoor to them Sweden had more death and worse outcomes overall.

toolz 4y ago
you mean the neighboring countries that objectively had similar (or even lower) restrictions than sweden? The countries like norway, finland and denmark that got labeled as "strict lockdown" countries only because it was politically expendient? You mean those neighbors? https://i.imgur.com/bjWZS81.png https://i.imgur.com/bjWZS81.png https://ourworldindata.org/covid-stringency-index https://ourworldindata.org/covid-stringency-index oh and here are some excess deaths you can compare across norway sweden and denmark - the difference is negligible - and this image doesn't even include 2021 where sweden had literally the lowest excess death in europe https://preview.redd.it/u8etorcogu451.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=292ff6119bf707128e794771bd890414d96ad78e https://preview.redd.it/u8etorcogu451.png?width=756&format=p...
- seizethegdgap 4y ago
  Your stringency argument falls flat on its face when the source for your argument skips the first 24 months of the pandemic. That same timeframe was when the variants were much more lethal, and the vaccine didn't exist for the first 12 months. Your excess deaths chart shows Sweden's rising by 5,000 people from 2019 to 2020, while Norway and Denmark's fell. This image (https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0168851021002220-gr1.jpg https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S01688510210022...) from this study (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851021002220 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016885102...) is a direct refutation of your argument.
  - toolz 4y ago
    Ah, it's been a while since I looked at that chart, didn't realize they had pruned the data to 2022, which is _not_ how long the stringency index measured, which you would know if you had spent any time researching this category study as the oxford stringency index is by _far_ the most cited and utilized index of covid policy. If you actually care about the subject feel free to look it up yourself, don't take my word for it as the measurements are all open source on github, including the methodology used to calculate the index.
- deleted 4y ago