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I haven't seen any data to support "roaring back". 6-ish months ago they were still saying SF rents were down 20% from March 2020. Any idea how many rentals a

I haven't seen any data to support "roaring back". 6-ish months ago they were still saying SF rents were down 20% from March 2020. Any idea how many rentals aren't rentals anymore because of the moratorium impact? I know up here in Portland there was a huge net reduction of rentals and prices spiked pretty hard. For example: https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/ca/san-francisco/ https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/ca/sa... https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/05/02/san-francisco-rentals-make-gains-still-last-market-lagging-behind-pre-pandemic-numbers/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/05/02/san-francisc...

gamblor956 4y ago
Like I said, I can't comment on how SF is doing because I don't live there. But I do live in LA, and the apartments in my neighborhood have never been this full before. For point of comparison: at two of the apartment buildings on my block, a 1 BR 540 sq ft studio will rent for about $2800. This is up 16% from pre-COVID rates of approximately $2400 for those same units ($2200 during COVID, which is where the >20% increase comes from). EDIT: At one of those buildings, a 1BR is listed for $3600, which is what a 2BR used to rent for at that same building pre-COVID. I can't say what the 2BR rates are right now because there aren't any listed.
- j_walter 4y ago
  Rents are up across the country and you are right it's 20% in LA according to rent.com. However equating rental prices going up 12% in the past 12 months with "people coming roaring back" isn't really correct. I mean inflation is up >7% in the last 12 months. I wouldn't say NYC has had a huge roaring back of people...but rent is up 39% in the last year...triple what SF saw. You can have rental prices increase and that doesn't necessarily mean an increase in demand...there are many external factors (supply shrinking, adjustments to account for lost rent in the pandemic, inflation, etc).
  - gamblor956 4y ago
    You're just ignoring contrary data to fit your viewpoint. As I've pointed out many times, the apartment buildings in my neighborhood have waitlists for potential renters, and that's despite 20% YoY rent increases (or 16% rent increases, comparing pre- and post-COVID). Average vacancy is less than 1%, and that is true of all of the desirable neighborhoods in LA (of which there are too many to mention). Your own citation supports the rent increase. These rent increases are not due to supply shrinking (there are thousands more rental units on the market now than before COVID), adjustments for lost rent in the pandemic (that's not how rental pricing works, landlords always charge market rate), and inflation (rent in these neighborhoods increased more than twice as much as inflation). At this point, having been confronted by data showing that your understanding is wrong, you need to point to actual concrete evidence that your understanding is reasonable and not just vague insinuations.
    - j_walter 4y ago
      My viewpoint is that there is not enough evidence to support what you are saying. Also "your neighborhood" isn't the same thing as an entire city so you can't extrapolate a single small data point into a city wide theory. I didn't see any of your data to show 16% increases of pre/post COVID...and the article is talking about SF which is 12% YoY. Landlords absolutely charge market rate...which includes baseline costs for running rentals and they had much higher than normal non-payment over the last 2 years which means their costs are up, therefore rents are up. I see no data to support your "thousands more rental units now"...in Portland they saw supply shrink over the past few years, and that was pre-COVID. With the recent increase in home values and 24+ months of potential non-payment a lot of small time landlords opted to sell (and we have a shit ton of people from California moving up here). https://assets.noviams.com/novi-file-uploads/mfnw/Files/article/Portland_Metro-Detached_Housing_Rental_Stock_Analysis-Updated_Report-3-25-22__002_.pdf https://assets.noviams.com/novi-file-uploads/mfnw/Files/arti...
raylad 4y ago
Here's rent data for SF: https://www.rent.com/california/san-francisco-apartments/rent-trends https://www.rent.com/california/san-francisco-apartments/ren... Avg. Rent Annual Change Studio $2,911 +17% 1 Bed $3,520 +12% 2 Beds $4,593 +6% 3 Beds $5,701 +8%
- j_walter 4y ago
  So if the average is say 12% increase (which is what rent.com says right now)...that still means SF is lower than before COVID started. Not to mention that the most cities are seeing off the charts numbers compared to SF right now. https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/ https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/ 36% increase in Portland, 112% increase in Austin, 36% in Miami. But please, feel free to down vote me for using data.

gamblor956 4y ago

Like I said, I can't comment on how SF is doing because I don't live there. But I do live in LA, and the apartments in my neighborhood have never been this full before. For point of comparison: at two of the apartment buildings on my block, a 1 BR 540 sq ft studio will rent for about $2800. This is up 16% from pre-COVID rates of approximately $2400 for those same units ($2200 during COVID, which is where the >20% increase comes from). EDIT: At one of those buildings, a 1BR is listed for $3600, which is what a 2BR used to rent for at that same building pre-COVID. I can't say what the 2BR rates are right now because there aren't any listed.

j_walter 4y ago
Rents are up across the country and you are right it's 20% in LA according to rent.com. However equating rental prices going up 12% in the past 12 months with "people coming roaring back" isn't really correct. I mean inflation is up >7% in the last 12 months. I wouldn't say NYC has had a huge roaring back of people...but rent is up 39% in the last year...triple what SF saw. You can have rental prices increase and that doesn't necessarily mean an increase in demand...there are many external factors (supply shrinking, adjustments to account for lost rent in the pandemic, inflation, etc).
- gamblor956 4y ago
  You're just ignoring contrary data to fit your viewpoint. As I've pointed out many times, the apartment buildings in my neighborhood have waitlists for potential renters, and that's despite 20% YoY rent increases (or 16% rent increases, comparing pre- and post-COVID). Average vacancy is less than 1%, and that is true of all of the desirable neighborhoods in LA (of which there are too many to mention). Your own citation supports the rent increase. These rent increases are not due to supply shrinking (there are thousands more rental units on the market now than before COVID), adjustments for lost rent in the pandemic (that's not how rental pricing works, landlords always charge market rate), and inflation (rent in these neighborhoods increased more than twice as much as inflation). At this point, having been confronted by data showing that your understanding is wrong, you need to point to actual concrete evidence that your understanding is reasonable and not just vague insinuations.
  - j_walter 4y ago
    My viewpoint is that there is not enough evidence to support what you are saying. Also "your neighborhood" isn't the same thing as an entire city so you can't extrapolate a single small data point into a city wide theory. I didn't see any of your data to show 16% increases of pre/post COVID...and the article is talking about SF which is 12% YoY. Landlords absolutely charge market rate...which includes baseline costs for running rentals and they had much higher than normal non-payment over the last 2 years which means their costs are up, therefore rents are up. I see no data to support your "thousands more rental units now"...in Portland they saw supply shrink over the past few years, and that was pre-COVID. With the recent increase in home values and 24+ months of potential non-payment a lot of small time landlords opted to sell (and we have a shit ton of people from California moving up here). https://assets.noviams.com/novi-file-uploads/mfnw/Files/article/Portland_Metro-Detached_Housing_Rental_Stock_Analysis-Updated_Report-3-25-22__002_.pdf https://assets.noviams.com/novi-file-uploads/mfnw/Files/arti...

raylad 4y ago

Here's rent data for SF: https://www.rent.com/california/san-francisco-apartments/rent-trends https://www.rent.com/california/san-francisco-apartments/ren... Avg. Rent Annual Change Studio $2,911 +17% 1 Bed $3,520 +12% 2 Beds $4,593 +6% 3 Beds $5,701 +8%

j_walter 4y ago
So if the average is say 12% increase (which is what rent.com says right now)...that still means SF is lower than before COVID started. Not to mention that the most cities are seeing off the charts numbers compared to SF right now. https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/ https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/ 36% increase in Portland, 112% increase in Austin, 36% in Miami. But please, feel free to down vote me for using data.