4 ms·

You either believe the statistics, or you don't - but your anecdata is meaningless. The excess mortality figures tell you need to know.

ipaddr 4y ago
How do you subtract the number of deaths caused by the vaccine itself?
- addled 4y ago
  Then you can look at the excess deaths statistics from the time the pandemic started, but before vaccines became available. It paints a similar picture. A lot more people "than usual" dying in 2020 (before vaccines in US).
  - forcejdhdk 4y ago
    And that could have nothing to do at all with the more deadly alpha and delta strains that are now extinct?
    - mrtesthah 4y ago
      "Omicron Deaths in U.S. Exceed Delta’s Peak as Covid-19 Optimism Rises in Europe" https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-deaths-in-u-s-exceed-deltas-peak-as-covid-19-optimism-rises-in-europe-11643201653 https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-deaths-in-u-s-exceed-de...
      - moistly 4y ago
        Omicron is less deadly on an individual basis by, IIRC, about 60%; it causes more deaths on a population basis because it infects vastly more people.
        mrtesthah 4y ago
        Sure, but in the context of where excess deaths come from, it's the total number of deaths we're interested in.
- mrtesthah 4y ago
  Excess deaths correlate with covid infection levels — not with vaccination rates. If the vaccine caused excess deaths then we would expect to see that number increasing starting in 2021 — instead deaths have been decreasing, and only went up temporarily during subsequent covid infection waves (and the great majority of those cases unsurprising may bring the unvaccinated). https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X%2821%2900011-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-19... https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1495025615178768384?s=20&t=oGYbiNnJPQz3sxaixYJgCw https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1495025615178768384?s=...
  - mrtesthah 4y ago
    typo from autocorrect: *and the great majority of those cases unsurprisingly were among the unvaccinated
- Angostura 4y ago
  Very easily because in every developed country, vaccine-related illness was tracked with extraordinary care. By last summer in the UK, for example there were 9 investigated cases where vaccination had lead to deaths https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/04/how-many-people-have-died-as-a-result-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/ https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/04/how-many-people-have-died... … and yes the ONS is independent of government
robonerd 4y ago
I don't doubt the statistics. I simply don't think the statistics warrant the level of fear the media tells me I should be experiencing.
- Angostura 4y ago
  The media generally reported the numbers of hospitalisations and deaths and the pressure on hospitals pretty accurately. I leave it to you as to whether you think 1 million deaths over 2 years in the US is something you should have been fearful of, or whether it is pretty trivial
  - robonerd 4y ago
    > The media generally reported the numbers [...] pretty accurately. What part of "I don't doubt the statistics." did you not understand? > "I leave it to you as to..." Oh gee, thanks your permission to think for myself.
beagle3 4y ago
No, they tell you there’s excess mortality. They don’t tell you if it is a result of Covid, of skipping medical care, of lockdowns, of substance abuse, etc. Some countries experienced essentially no excess death even without vaccines, and some experienced non-Covid attributed excess death independent of vaccines. You really can’t read anything off excess death, except that it exists (where it exists)

ipaddr 4y ago

How do you subtract the number of deaths caused by the vaccine itself?

addled 4y ago
Then you can look at the excess deaths statistics from the time the pandemic started, but before vaccines became available. It paints a similar picture. A lot more people "than usual" dying in 2020 (before vaccines in US).
- forcejdhdk 4y ago
  And that could have nothing to do at all with the more deadly alpha and delta strains that are now extinct?
  - mrtesthah 4y ago
    "Omicron Deaths in U.S. Exceed Delta’s Peak as Covid-19 Optimism Rises in Europe" https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-deaths-in-u-s-exceed-deltas-peak-as-covid-19-optimism-rises-in-europe-11643201653 https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-deaths-in-u-s-exceed-de...
    - moistly 4y ago
      Omicron is less deadly on an individual basis by, IIRC, about 60%; it causes more deaths on a population basis because it infects vastly more people.
      - mrtesthah 4y ago
        Sure, but in the context of where excess deaths come from, it's the total number of deaths we're interested in.
mrtesthah 4y ago
Excess deaths correlate with covid infection levels — not with vaccination rates. If the vaccine caused excess deaths then we would expect to see that number increasing starting in 2021 — instead deaths have been decreasing, and only went up temporarily during subsequent covid infection waves (and the great majority of those cases unsurprising may bring the unvaccinated). https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X%2821%2900011-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-19... https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1495025615178768384?s=20&t=oGYbiNnJPQz3sxaixYJgCw https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1495025615178768384?s=...
- mrtesthah 4y ago
  typo from autocorrect: *and the great majority of those cases unsurprisingly were among the unvaccinated
Angostura 4y ago
Very easily because in every developed country, vaccine-related illness was tracked with extraordinary care. By last summer in the UK, for example there were 9 investigated cases where vaccination had lead to deaths https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/04/how-many-people-have-died-as-a-result-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/ https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/04/how-many-people-have-died... … and yes the ONS is independent of government

robonerd 4y ago

I don't doubt the statistics. I simply don't think the statistics warrant the level of fear the media tells me I should be experiencing.

Angostura 4y ago
The media generally reported the numbers of hospitalisations and deaths and the pressure on hospitals pretty accurately. I leave it to you as to whether you think 1 million deaths over 2 years in the US is something you should have been fearful of, or whether it is pretty trivial
- robonerd 4y ago
  > The media generally reported the numbers [...] pretty accurately. What part of "I don't doubt the statistics." did you not understand? > "I leave it to you as to..." Oh gee, thanks your permission to think for myself.

beagle3 4y ago

No, they tell you there’s excess mortality. They don’t tell you if it is a result of Covid, of skipping medical care, of lockdowns, of substance abuse, etc. Some countries experienced essentially no excess death even without vaccines, and some experienced non-Covid attributed excess death independent of vaccines. You really can’t read anything off excess death, except that it exists (where it exists)