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The article is missing a crucial point. Not only do we need more brains, but we also need robust knowledge transfers between generations (between current and n

The article is missing a crucial point. Not only do we need more brains, but we also need robust knowledge transfers between generations (between current and new brains). I.e. for new brains to be effective, they must start from the point that the old brains stopped. As I see it the opposite process is at play. For example, cloud computing decrease the need to understand hardware/os. Or, outsourcing remove new brains from entering the knowledge accumulation pipeline.

zmgsabst 4y ago
> Or, outsourcing remove new brains from entering the knowledge accumulation pipeline. This is why Boeing can’t build planes anymore: They decided midcareer engineers were too expensive and their crop of senior engineers are aging out — so they no longer have the expertise necessary, due to outsourcing and not supporting their young employees.
- aeternum 4y ago
  Another way to look at this is just as an optimization problem. We found a good local optimum and it became too costly to search further. In the early days of aerospace, the search space was mostly unknown and there were tons of companies investing R&D in a wide variety of designs. Huge amounts of human capital were invested, and as in all things, some designs worked, some didn't. Many companies went bankrupt. Eventually we find some good designs and the risk/reward of searching the space further just doesn't make sense. Only recently with improved tech and ML/AI + simulation has the cost to search been reduced enough that it makes economic sense to try again.
munk-a 4y ago
I enjoy the freedom to have a closet full of extremely finely tailored clothes (going by the 1800s standards) I'm practically living the millionaire's dream from that era... but never in my life have I learned how to operate a flying shuttle loom - some information is specialized and doesn't need widespread knowing. When I went to uni (and I'm only 35 so I'm not talking about the 80s) we learned about low level data structures, I took a course in relational algebra, operating system design, assembly language - these were necessary (imo) broadening exercises that have enabled me to better understand how to make things work performantly at a high level. Now a company may only need one or two folks like me with a passion for algorithm design among a dev team of fifty - but we don't all need formal training in every little thing. Imparting the knowledge of how to learn, along with those pieces of basic information we deem critical, can be enough.
formerkrogemp 4y ago
Robust knowledge transfers between generations sounds nice, but the older people are retiring in droves and younger people aren't replacing them quickly enough. We just get a bunch of newbloods that don't get the chance to learn from old hands who will get paid less than them due to labor shortages. It is too bad we treat people like shit in this country. Consider, if you would the situation of nurses in America. We have record nursing school enrollment, high rates of turnover, increasing rates of violence against medical professionals, and levels of burnout that should give everyone pause. Nurses and doctors are all facing mental health crises. Violence against medical professionals is rising at rapid rates even prior to the pandemic. Many health professionals don't report assaults either because of their altruistic tendencies. More than half of nurses are thinking or planning on quitting their jobs. More than half of all doctors wouldn't recommend or don't want their children to go into medicine. Here's a fun little excercise for you. Google the nearest hospital near you and see how many openings they have. Especially for security. The hospital near me has never had a security officer. Now they have five. Hospital workers are being taught de-escalation techniques and taking self defense classes. Senior homes are facing record shortages of labor. Who'd you rather have treating your loved ones? The nurses with decades of practical experience, or the nursing school graduates who will quit after 3 years of burn out and stress? We're starting to treat nurses as badly as we do teachers. What do we expect to happen? This is just one industry as well. A few fun links for your perusal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/04/19/new-survey https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/04/19/new-survey... https://www.ajc.com/pulse/survey-shows-90-of-nurses-consider https://www.ajc.com/pulse/survey-shows-90-of-nurses-consider... https://www.benefitnews.com/news/nurses-are-planning-to-quit https://www.benefitnews.com/news/nurses-are-planning-to-quit... https://www.aacnnursing.org/News-Information/News/View/ArticleId/25043/data-spotlight-august-2021-Nursing-Faculty-Shortage#:~:text=However%2C%20the%20United%20States%20is,1%2C492%20vacant%20positions%20in%202020 https://www.aacnnursing.org/News-Information/News/View/Artic....

zmgsabst 4y ago

> Or, outsourcing remove new brains from entering the knowledge accumulation pipeline. This is why Boeing can’t build planes anymore: They decided midcareer engineers were too expensive and their crop of senior engineers are aging out — so they no longer have the expertise necessary, due to outsourcing and not supporting their young employees.

aeternum 4y ago
Another way to look at this is just as an optimization problem. We found a good local optimum and it became too costly to search further. In the early days of aerospace, the search space was mostly unknown and there were tons of companies investing R&D in a wide variety of designs. Huge amounts of human capital were invested, and as in all things, some designs worked, some didn't. Many companies went bankrupt. Eventually we find some good designs and the risk/reward of searching the space further just doesn't make sense. Only recently with improved tech and ML/AI + simulation has the cost to search been reduced enough that it makes economic sense to try again.

munk-a 4y ago

I enjoy the freedom to have a closet full of extremely finely tailored clothes (going by the 1800s standards) I'm practically living the millionaire's dream from that era... but never in my life have I learned how to operate a flying shuttle loom - some information is specialized and doesn't need widespread knowing. When I went to uni (and I'm only 35 so I'm not talking about the 80s) we learned about low level data structures, I took a course in relational algebra, operating system design, assembly language - these were necessary (imo) broadening exercises that have enabled me to better understand how to make things work performantly at a high level. Now a company may only need one or two folks like me with a passion for algorithm design among a dev team of fifty - but we don't all need formal training in every little thing. Imparting the knowledge of how to learn, along with those pieces of basic information we deem critical, can be enough.

formerkrogemp 4y ago

Robust knowledge transfers between generations sounds nice, but the older people are retiring in droves and younger people aren't replacing them quickly enough. We just get a bunch of newbloods that don't get the chance to learn from old hands who will get paid less than them due to labor shortages. It is too bad we treat people like shit in this country. Consider, if you would the situation of nurses in America. We have record nursing school enrollment, high rates of turnover, increasing rates of violence against medical professionals, and levels of burnout that should give everyone pause. Nurses and doctors are all facing mental health crises. Violence against medical professionals is rising at rapid rates even prior to the pandemic. Many health professionals don't report assaults either because of their altruistic tendencies. More than half of nurses are thinking or planning on quitting their jobs. More than half of all doctors wouldn't recommend or don't want their children to go into medicine. Here's a fun little excercise for you. Google the nearest hospital near you and see how many openings they have. Especially for security. The hospital near me has never had a security officer. Now they have five. Hospital workers are being taught de-escalation techniques and taking self defense classes. Senior homes are facing record shortages of labor. Who'd you rather have treating your loved ones? The nurses with decades of practical experience, or the nursing school graduates who will quit after 3 years of burn out and stress? We're starting to treat nurses as badly as we do teachers. What do we expect to happen? This is just one industry as well. A few fun links for your perusal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/04/19/new-survey https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/04/19/new-survey... https://www.ajc.com/pulse/survey-shows-90-of-nurses-consider https://www.ajc.com/pulse/survey-shows-90-of-nurses-consider... https://www.benefitnews.com/news/nurses-are-planning-to-quit https://www.benefitnews.com/news/nurses-are-planning-to-quit... https://www.aacnnursing.org/News-Information/News/View/ArticleId/25043/data-spotlight-august-2021-Nursing-Faculty-Shortage#:~:text=However%2C%20the%20United%20States%20is,1%2C492%20vacant%20positions%20in%202020 https://www.aacnnursing.org/News-Information/News/View/Artic....