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It's interesting to consider that the total global human population could possibly peak within our lifetime (although more likely around 2100). Global populatio

It's interesting to consider that the total global human population could possibly peak within our lifetime (although more likely around 2100). Global population growth rate has already peaked at 2.1% in 1968, and has since dropped to 1.1%. [1]. In the last 60 years, total fertility rate has dropped from 5 to 2.5 [2], and most industrialized nations are hovering right around replacement rate of 2.1 or actively shrinking (Japan, 1.4, Germany, 1.6, South Korea, 0.81). Albeit during COVID, the 2020 TFR in the United States was only 1.64, and has declined for the last four years in a row [3]. With technology, I'd still expect the overall "size of the economy" to grow, but it will be interesting to see how growth is affected by substantial changes in demography that play out over the next 100-200 years (if only I could stick around to watch!). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/us/us-birthrate-falls-covid.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/us/us-birthrate-falls-cov...

vidarh 4y ago
More than just the most developed industrialised countries too. India has just reached replacement and is set to start declining in a few decades. And China ditched the one child policy years ago and are now pushing for more in a bid to prevent a crash landing after they dropped below years ago - currently they're maybe ~20 years from starting to see population decline unless they soften immigration rules. It's going to take a long time before this change sinks in for people who are still used to worrying about overpopulation, outside of the fringe groups panicking over "white replacement".
- BlargMcLarg 4y ago
  A lot of people aren't worried about overpopulation in a vacuum. They are worried about overpopulation along with the rise of personal consumption and potential competition (read: perceived zero-sum games). The job market is already ridiculously competitive. Rent and homes are already crazy, partially due to so many people insisting on living alone and many countries still not having adapted to an increasingly more individualistic society. Telling them "it'll cool off in 20 years" is about the equivalent of telling them "yeah the problems we have now will continue another 20 years, deal with it".
  - vidarh 4y ago
    A lot of people - most of the ones I end up arguing about overpopulation with in fact - are worried about it because they think growth is still heading for the skies and are arguing about it from a resource depletion and environmental angle. I can't recall the last time I came across the arguments you put forward, and I've hardly ever discussed this with someone expressing worry about overpopulation who has argued the problem is just that it's not flattening out fast enough. In fact, I often face people who insist I'm wrong when I point out projections show us heading for population decline. I'm not suggesting people believing what you're saying don't exist, but in my experience at least they're not the ones yelling loudest about overpopulation. That said, with respect to people worrying about it not flattening out fast enough, we'd face far worse problems if it rates started declining faster. We're already seeing pressure for higher pension ages to offset the coming decline in a working age population in many countries. Pressure for higher tax rates, longer hours, later pensions will come in short order if the demographic shift happens fast enough, and it will be massive unpopular.
62951413 4y ago
Peter Zeihan has a few fascinating presentations on the subject (youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc is representative) choke-full of facts and trend lines.
- dredmorbius 4y ago
  Linkified: https://yewtu.be/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc https://yewtu.be/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc

vidarh 4y ago

More than just the most developed industrialised countries too. India has just reached replacement and is set to start declining in a few decades. And China ditched the one child policy years ago and are now pushing for more in a bid to prevent a crash landing after they dropped below years ago - currently they're maybe ~20 years from starting to see population decline unless they soften immigration rules. It's going to take a long time before this change sinks in for people who are still used to worrying about overpopulation, outside of the fringe groups panicking over "white replacement".

BlargMcLarg 4y ago
A lot of people aren't worried about overpopulation in a vacuum. They are worried about overpopulation along with the rise of personal consumption and potential competition (read: perceived zero-sum games). The job market is already ridiculously competitive. Rent and homes are already crazy, partially due to so many people insisting on living alone and many countries still not having adapted to an increasingly more individualistic society. Telling them "it'll cool off in 20 years" is about the equivalent of telling them "yeah the problems we have now will continue another 20 years, deal with it".
- vidarh 4y ago
  A lot of people - most of the ones I end up arguing about overpopulation with in fact - are worried about it because they think growth is still heading for the skies and are arguing about it from a resource depletion and environmental angle. I can't recall the last time I came across the arguments you put forward, and I've hardly ever discussed this with someone expressing worry about overpopulation who has argued the problem is just that it's not flattening out fast enough. In fact, I often face people who insist I'm wrong when I point out projections show us heading for population decline. I'm not suggesting people believing what you're saying don't exist, but in my experience at least they're not the ones yelling loudest about overpopulation. That said, with respect to people worrying about it not flattening out fast enough, we'd face far worse problems if it rates started declining faster. We're already seeing pressure for higher pension ages to offset the coming decline in a working age population in many countries. Pressure for higher tax rates, longer hours, later pensions will come in short order if the demographic shift happens fast enough, and it will be massive unpopular.

62951413 4y ago

Peter Zeihan has a few fascinating presentations on the subject (youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc is representative) choke-full of facts and trend lines.

dredmorbius 4y ago
Linkified: https://yewtu.be/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc https://yewtu.be/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc